Daily Fantasy Sports: Week 12 NFL Tips and StrategyAttempting To Solve The Week 12 NFL DFS Puzzle |
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If you are looking for daily fantasy sports action, FanDuel gives away more than $10 million in prize pools each week and offers a $2.5 million prize pool in the NFL Sunday Million. You can also test your skills with DraftKings and their $27 buy-in $2.2 million guarantee on the Millionaire Maker, which will give one lucky player a seven-figure payday.
Every week brings with it a new set of matchups. I like to view each week as a new puzzle. When looking over salaries, I decide where I think the top sleeper plays are, which studs seem like must plays, and which duds to shy away from. Once I make these decisions, I begin to construct my lineups. Sometimes, because of the differing salaries on each site, those lineups don’t exactly mirror each other from site to site. Other times they do. It’s all part of the weekly puzzle of NFL DFS.
FanDuel Studs, Duds, and Sleepers
Studs
Quarterback: I’m recommending Andrew Luck ($10,300) on FanDuel again. The Colts get a home date with the Jags and are slated by Vegas to score 32 points in this one. They don’t have a great running game, leaving Luck a lot of scoring to do.
Running Back: I’m going back to Matt Forte ($9,300). I recommended him last week as well. Hopefully this doesn’t become a habit, but I must go where logic takes me. Forte is just a do it all back at home in a great matchup against the Bucs.
Wide Receiver: Demaryius Thomas ($9,000) may see a decent amount of the excellent Dolphins cover man Brent Grimes. Nonetheless, there’s no receiver playing better right now and you could do much worse if you wanted to pay up for a top receiving option. T.Y. Hilton ($8,500) also makes for a great tournament option to pair with Andrew Luck.
Tight End: Rob Gronkowski ($7,900) is beyond belief. He’s handily the best and most productive tight end in the league. Hard to go anywhere else.
Duds
Quarterback: Matthew Stafford ($8,300) draws a tough road matchup against the Patriots excellent pass defense. I’m staying away.
Running Back: Jeremy Hill ($7,400) has been a man on fire recently. Don’t fall into the trap of using him this week. He may still be solid, but his teammate and fellow running back Giovani Bernard is returning from injury and will cut into Hill’s workload.
Wide Receiver: Football is a game that captures a lot of week-to-week variance, and recently Mike Evans ($8,400) has been on a prodigious hot streak. I’m willing to bet against it continuing. This is very steep price point for a player who wasn’t even $6,000 on FanDuel a month ago.
Tight End: Jimmy Graham ($7,500) is awesome. He also has an awesome quarterback. But I’m calling him a dud for two reasons. One is that Baltimore has a very good defense. The other is that if you’re going to spend $7,500 on Graham, you need to be finding the extra $400 somewhere to get Rob Gronkowski in your lineup.
Sleepers
Quarterback: Mark Sanchez ($7,500) has taken over as the Eagles signal caller due to Nick Foles’ injury and remains a solid option that can save you some cap space. Sometimes it takes awhile for a player’s salary to catch up to what it should be. This is one of those times.
Running Back: Isaiah Crowell ($5,500) appears to have taken the reigns on the Cleveland running back job. The release of Ben Tate by Cleveland in the middle of this week only furthers that narrative. If Crowell can get 18 carries, he’s a big favorite to pay off this price tag against a weak Atlanta defense.
Wide Receiver: Marques Colston ($6,000) should be a beneficiary of Brandin Cooks’ season ending thumb injury. In the Saints already prolific passing game, one less mouth to feed means more for Colston to eat.
Tight End: Options galore. Coby Fleener ($5,400) headlines if teammate and fellow tight end Dwayne Allen can’t suit up for this one due to his sprained ankle. Jacob Tamme ($5,300) is in a similar situation if his teammate Julius Thomas can’t get healthy enough to play this weekend. Finally, Larry Donnell ($5,500) is a big redzone threat for the Giants and always has a good chance to score a touchdown.
DraftKings Price Plays
One great aspect of DraftKings is that from week to week their player pricing varies quite a bit. This allows more freedom to try different things and use an assortment of players weekly. Usually, I find a few players who I believe are priced too cheaply. Here are some of the guys who stick out as a week 12 discount to me.
Quarterback: Matt Ryan ($6,300) is playing in the friendly confines of the Georgia Dome this weekend and leads an Atlanta team favored over Cleveland. Ryan always seems to play well at home, so $6,300 seems like a bargain to me.
Running Back: LeSean McCoy ($6,200) has been hit or miss this season. When researching for this week over at Pro Football Focus, I noticed that the Eagles grade out as one of the best run blocking teams on the season and the Titans grade out as one of the worst run defenses. That advantage up front for Philly makes me think McCoy will be hitting this week.
Wide Receiver: Keenan Allen ($4,900) has been getting plenty of looks from Philip Rivers. However, he hasn’t been scoring touchdowns. This has caused his price to stay depressed. Chances are Allen will find the endzone at a higher rate than he has so far this season. I’m willing to take a chance on him.
Tight End: Martellus Bennett ($4,000) looked like one of the best tight ends in football to begin the year. He’s had some nagging injuries and hasn’t been as effective recently, which has made his price plummet. Now is the time to pounce.
FantasyDraft
As a DFS junkie I’m always looking for more action. Recently, I’ve found a new place to play, and that’s FantasyDraft. It is an up and coming website in the Daily Fantasy Sports industry. This is a revolutionary DFS site that in addition to offering contests has come up with a way for all of its customers to make some extra cash through their 6 Degrees of Pay referral program. Fantasydraft.com offers you the opportunity to create a referral network that results in you making more money for each person you sign up and those people having the chance to do the same.
Today is the opening day for deposits and you can play for real money in this weekend’s NFL games. The next two weeks are the last two weeks of beta testing in advance of the site’s official launch on December 7. During the official launch week, there will be $400,000 in guaranteed prizes, headlined by the $250,000 Sunday Sizzler contest.
Very rarely in life do you get the chance to get in on the ground floor of something that could be huge. That sounds corny, but with the 6 Degrees of Pay referral program I really believe this could be a great opportunity for everyone. Give fantasydraft.com a shot along with me this weekend. Check out my article next week for an overview of my experience and more information on how you can start.
Any questions? Find me on Twitter @IanJ300 and I’d be happy to give my best answer. Come back next week for more strategy talk.
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