Daily Fantasy Sports Strategy And TipsWeather: The Hidden MLB DFS Game Changer |
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Most of us that play MLB Daily Fantasy Sports are well aware of some of the more obvious factors at play. Things like weighted on base average (wOBA), isolated slugging (ISO), left and right handed splits, Vegas lines and where the game is being played are being looked at extensively by almost everyone who is playing. One factor that many new DFS players overlook that any experienced DFS player will tell you is hugely important is weather.
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The weather and the varying aspects of it have an effect on every aspect of the game. When the temperature is higher, the ball will travel through the air better. Humidity has the same effect. Wind can also play its part, but many times the effects are overstated. Also, we’re all aware that altitude has an effect if we’ve ever read a thing about Coors Field and its effect on offense. Those are four factors I like to consider most when debating what kind of weather there will be for a given game and how it will effect my DFS batters.
One aspect of weather’s influence that I believe is highly overlooked in DFS circles is how it plays a hand in pitching performance. The simple fact is, when it’s cold outside, the ball just will not travel the way it will when it’s warm. This can raise both the floor and the upside of your DFS pitchers, as the likelihood of home runs decreases and hitters become less comfortable, possibly increasing strikeout upside.
One recent example of this is a ball David Ortiz hit in Cleveland the other day. It has been very cold in Cleveland for the Red Sox and Indians opening series, with a chance of snow in the forecast for Thursday. Earlier in the series, Ortiz hit a ball that would have been a home run in almost any setting. It fell just short. I was surfing Twitter at the time and saw numerous people tweet about how hard the ball was hit and how shocked they were that it didn’t leave the yard.
Making MLB DFS lineups can be pretty overwhelming if you’re thinking about all of the things you should be thinking about. Finding little shortcuts is imperative to thinning out the field of players you should possibly be targeting. Weather is definitely a big shortcut to look at when evaluating both pitchers and hitters. Being aware of all of the factors and compiling these kinds of subtle edges, in addition to nailing the obvious, is what it takes to become a good DFS player.
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Thanks for reading. Find me on Twitter @IanJ300 with any questions.
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