Daily Fantasy Sports Strategy And TipsThe Coors Field Effect |
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Typically, in MLB Daily Fantasy Sports the most prudent approach is to pay up for the top pitchers, as they offer a lot of upside and stability at the most consistent position available to us. Over the last few days, however, Coors Field has been on the slate and that alone can flip everything we think we know on its head. The extremely scoring-friendly environment of Coors Field can in a way make the offenses playing in that game the most consistent option available to us. So what kind of adjustments to our DFS lineups should we be looking to make when a game is being played in Coors Field?
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Digging for Pitching
Sometimes Coors Field will be in play and there won’t be any top flight pitching options or the best pitchers aren’t in ideal situations. On these types of days especially, we have to invert our thinking and start looking for inexpensive pitching so we can afford all of the valuable hitters playing in Coors Field. Similar to when we’re paying up for pitching, we’re looking for safety and upside with our pitching. Our standards will be lower due to the decrease in quality of pitcher we’re looking at, but those are the goals nonetheless.
To identify where possible high floor or safe options are, I start by looking at the betting lines. Pitchers on teams that are favored in games with projected run totals in the 6.5-7.5 range are generally going to have some inherently high floors. The betting lines are telling you that these pitchers are not expected to give up a large amount of production to the opposing offense. After that, we can hone in on the upside element by looking at strikeout rates. Any pitcher who sits in the mid teens for strikeout percentage is generally not going to have a ton of upside. Once we start pushing and eclipsing a twenty percent strikeout rate, now we’re looking at someone who can move the needle for our DFS lineup.
Stacking the Lineup
Once you’ve taken the plunge on a starting pitcher you may not have normally considered, you’ll have all this money left to spend on the bats in Coors Field. One step I like to take first is to identify where the cheapest value is at the hitting spots, whether they’re playing in Coors Field or not. Which players will give me the most salary flexibility to be able to afford some of the top bats going in Coors Field that day? If there happens to be a cheap player at a position that you aren’t targeting in the Coors Field game, that’s a perfect situation to save some cap room.
Due to the nature of Coors Field and the amount of extra base hits it allows, pairing players from the same parts of the lineup can be very advantageous. While most everyone is aware of the idea of stacking, people may not realize that it actually is a bigger deal in Coors Field than other places. The additional extra base hits, combined with the sheer number of runs scored in Coors Field, really has an exponential effect on the benefits of stacking a team.
While no two days are ever the same, it is a decent rule of thumb that when Coors Field is in play on a slate and the projected run total is in the 10-12 range, you should be trying to get some exposure to that game by hook or by crook. Identifying cheap pitching and value hitting that you can plug into your lineup that won’t kill you is crucial when trying to afford some of the top bats playing in Coors Field.
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Thanks for reading. Find me on Twitter @IanJ300 with any questions.
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