WSOP Strategy -- Raymer Talks About His 40K Demise

With three players remaining, Greg Raymer had a chance to cement his place in poker immortality. Already a main event victory under his belt from 2004, he found himself in contention to take down the new $40,000 no-limit event at the 2009 World Series.

But then, he made a move that left the casual player scratching his head.

He shipped his stack of about 50 big blinds all in pre-flop from the button with pocket fives after he was reraised by Isaac Haxton from the button. Haxton made the call with pocket nines, the board didn’t improve Raymer’s hand, and the world champ was eliminated.

Raymer told Card Player he had no qualms about how he played his hand.

Event – Blinds/Antes	Event No. 2, $40,000 NLHE	80,000-160,000 with a 20,000 ante
Player	Greg Raymer	Isaac Haxton
Chip Count	8,105,000	8,270,000
Hand	5-5	9-9

Info: 80-160,000, 20,000 ante… WSOP Event No. 2…. Greg Raymer, 5h-5d, 8.105 million… Haxton, 9h-9d, 8.270 million

The Hand

Greg Raymer raised to 400,000 (2.5 times the big blind) from the button, Vitaly Lunkin folded in the small blind, and Isaac Haxton reraised from the big blind to 1.4 million. Raymer then pushed all in for 8.105 million. Haxton quickly calls.

The board runs out Kc Qd 10s 3h 3d and Raymer is eliminated in third place for $774,927.

The Interview

Stephen A. Murphy: Had Haxton been three-betting a lot at the final table?

Greg Raymer: Not a lot, but we had caught him three-betting light two or three times at the final table. When he knocked out Dani Stern, he three-bet all in with K-7 when Stern had two fives (Note: Stern was actually crippled by the hand, and eliminated shortly thereafter).

So, Haxton didn’t have to have a big hand there at all, especially three-handed and I knew that he didn’t have to have a big hand.

So I’m figuring if I reraise all in, he’s folding at least half the time. When he calls, I’m never in good shape. Either he’s got an over pair or two over cards.

Either I’m a small favorite against ace-king, ace-queen-kind of a hand, or he’s got an over pair because I don’t think he’ll call me with twos, threes, or fours. It’s not like I’m looking to get called, but if he calls me and has two over cards, then I’m just going to have to take my chances.

I was just in a really bad spot.

SM: Did you consider folding?

GR: If I fold, that’s just way too weak because he’s three-betting there with so many things. If I’m going to fold there, how can I even raise anymore? Now I need what—pocket sevens or better—to raise the button?

SM: So pocket fives are definitely ahead of your normal range there?

GR: Well, yes and no. It just kind of depends how you rank the hands. Which is better—J-9 or two fives? It just depends on what your opponent has. If your J-9 misses the flop, well then you have crap. If your two fives miss the flop, youstill might have the best hand but you’ll really have to make tough decisions.

SM: Can you explain why you didn’t call with the pocket fives?

GR: If I call with the fives, I’m calling like 15% of my stack, give or take, and that’s just too much. What do I do when the flop misses me? Seven out ofeight times, I’m not going to flop a set, and I’ll have no clue in the world what to do — any card on the board could’ve hit him.

It’s going to be so hard to play him unless he’s going to be super, super easy to read (post-flop). He’s a good enough player where I knew I wasn’t going to read him with a high degree of certainty. I felt like I had some tells on him, but they weren’t 100% reliable and they weren’t there all the time.

SM: Looking back, are you completely comfortable with your decision to push all in pre-flop?

GR: Yeah. I talked to some other players just in case, and basically everyone who I’ve talked to who I think is a fundamentally strong player were like, ‘Ew, yuck,’ when he raises. Folding is bad, calling is bad, shoving is bad. Shoving sucks less than the other two—that’s really what it comes down to.

And those are the hardest decisions in poker and in life. Every time every option is bad and you have to pick the least bad option, it really sucks. When you have to pick between a good decision and a bad decision, people have no trouble. You’re going to be able to make that decision pretty well.

But when it’s like do you want me to take $2,000 from you, beat you with a whip, or kill your dog, people are really bad at that choice.

When all decisions are bad, people don’t really make decisions very well. I think I did make the best decision of three bad choices. You’re going to find yourself in spots like that in poker all the time. I made the best choice, he happened to have too good of a hand to fold, and my hand against his didn’t have much chance of winning.

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