Poker Strategy -- Cash Game Hand Analysis

The cliché, “There are always two sides to a story,” holds especially true when referring to any given poker hand. Jay Rosenkrantz and Andrew Robl played the following hand in an epic live high-stakes home cash game. Both players sat down with Card Player to discuss their though processes throughout the hand.

The Game

Game: No-limit hold’em
Stakes: $100-$200 ($500 ante on the button)
Minimum Buy-in: $50,000

Review of the Hand

Preflop Action: In a nine-handed game, Jay Rosenkrantz raises to $700 from the cutoff with K Qin an unopened pot. Andrew Robl calls with J J on the button, as does Bertrand Grospellier from the big blind. The pot is now $2,700.

Kristy Arnett: Jay, what were you thinking when Andrew just called your raise preflop?

Jay Rosenkrantz: When Andrew just called preflop, I didn’t really think much. I didn’t think he had a big hand, I just thought he wanted to see a flop. I didn’t think he had something like K-3, because I think he might reraise that. I thought he might have like 8-7 suited, A-4 suited, or a pocket pair. When a good player flats in position on you, they have a lot of options, so I wasn’t really worried preflop.

KA: What went into your decision to just call preflop?

Andrew Robl: When Jay opens in the hijack to $700, I have an interesting decision with my hand on the button. If we were less deep, with 100 big blinds, I would almost always reraise and get it in against an aggressive player like Jay who can make a four-bet as a bluff sometimes, but here, I didn’t want to get four-bet and have a lot of really tough decisions on later streets. I think by flatting, I get some deception, and also, with an aggressive player in the big blind who might reraise. Then, I’d be in a really good spot post-flop with a very deceptive, strong hand.

JR: Yeah, I think that’s the best reason to just call in that spot, because ElkY [Grospellier] might squeeze.

Flop Action: The flop is K 10 4. Rosenkrantz bets $2,000. Robl calls. The pot is now $6,700.

JR: On the flop, I’ve got to put money in the pot. I’m not going to check to Andrew, especially when it’s multi-way and I have a hand that is strong. After I bet and he calls, I’ve got to start thinking about what he could have. He might have a worse king than me, maybe a set. I wouldn’t put it past him to have tens or fours. He can also have a hand like J-10 or Q-J suited. He could have also just been floating to look good on TV [laugh].

AR: I think he’s going to C-bet [continuation bet] a lot hands on that flop in my opinion. He’s going to C-bet any hand with a king or 10 in it, and then Broadway-type hands — A-J, J-10, A-Q — and maybe hands like J-9. There’s really no reason for me to raise, except to see where I’m at, but I think that’s a bad play.

Turn Action: The turn is the 7. The board now reads K 10 4 7. Rosenkrantz bet $5,000. Andrew called. The pot is now $16,700.

JR: I have to think about what hands he could have, and what hands I’m representing. I am representing the hand I have, K-Q, and also A-K, pocket aces, pocket kings, or a set. I could also have a lot of drawing hands like a flush draw now or a straight draw like 9-8, 6-5. When he just calls, I thought that there was no way he could have had a set, so my hand is almost always good.

KA: Why were you convinced he couldn’t have had a slow-played set?

JR: He would have raise the flop or the turn to try and get more money in the pot. Maybe not, but most of the time, that’s what I’m assuming.

AR: With 200 big-blind stakes, I almost always raise the turn with a set, whereas if we were not as deep, I could definitely still have a set.

KA: Are you worried your hand might not be good when Jay fires another barrel?

AR: When bet again, Jay is a good aggressive player, and he likes to fire two and three barrels a lot, so I thought he’d continue betting with most hands that had a lot of outs, like A-Q, A-J, Q-J, J-9. All semi-bluffing hands, especially if he turned a flush draw, I think he’d bet again. Going into the river, if it blanked and he bet again, it was going to be a really tough decision for me.

River Action: The river is a J. The board now reads K 10 4 7 J. Rosenkrantz checks, and Robl bets $12,000. Rosenkrantz folds and Robl wins the pot of $16,700.

JR: At this point I’m thinking that some of my semi-bluffs have gotten there. Also, with my hand, I have to think about whether or not I’m going to value-bet it. Which types of hands might he call me with? If I have a hand that I’m ahead with on the turn and still ahead with on the river, he has to be able to put me on some bluffs that missed to be able to call with a worse hand. He’d have to have a bluff-catcher. Are there enough bluffs for me to bet? Andrew’s not a huge calling station or some passive guy who could have K-2 suited here, otherwise I’d bet all day. If he was a player who could call with a 10, I’d bet. I think Andrew, at this point, realizes that I’m either bluffing or not. The jack isn’t a great card to keep bluffing. He can’t find that many bluffs that I would bet the flop and turn with. He’d fold a 10, and there aren’t many hands that he’d flat the button with, so my hand isn’t good enough to value-bet. That’s why I checked, expecting that he’d either check back and I’d win, or when he bets, I don’t expect him to bet a worse hand than mine since there is no bluff he could have, so I’d fold.

AR: When the jacl=k hits, I’m pretty certain I have the best hand. Now, also, the problem is, it’s really tough for Jay to call me because there are just not that many hands that I could have that didn’t get there. I thought for awhile and decided to bet $12,000 because that is what I would bet with most of my hands. I could occasionally have a hand like 5 4 or 10-9 or 10-8 that I decided to turn into a bluff, so he could look me up with a king, but at the same time, I was slightly afraid of getting check-raised. He could definitely have A-Q or Q-9 and decide to check-raise me, but I still wasn’t planning on folding after I bet.

JR: Yeah, I would definitely go for a check-raise with A-Q and Q-9, and I think you’re right about if you had 10-9 or 5 4. Betting there is great because I have to almost always be check-folding in that spot.

AR: Jay is smart enough to know that I could have almost no hands that have no showdown value. At the same time, he’s smart enough to know that I can turn made hands into a bluff. When you are playing someone who has similar thoughts as you, it adds whole new levels to the game. I think that’s a common mistake that a lot of otherwise good players make — they value bet really thin against other good players in situations where they can’t be bluffing.

KA: In hindsight, is there anything either of you would have done differently?

AR: Well, if I knew what he had and what was coming, I probably would have reraised preflop and tried to get it in on the flop and spike the jack! [laughs]

Most Viewed Articles