Poker Strategy -- Andrew Brokos Cash Game Hand Analysis

Andrew “Foucault” Brokos is known for his knowledge of the game and experience in short-handed no-limit hold’em cash games. An instructor for Card Player Pro (powered by PokerSavvy Plus), Brokos has lots of experience breaking down hands for strategy analysis, and here, he discusses a no-limit cash-game hand with Card Player.

The Game:

Game: No-limit hold’em
Stakes: $5-$10

The Lineup

Under the Gun — ($1052)
Middle Position — ($1076)
Villain — Cutoff — ($1042)
Button — ($761.60)
Andrew Brokos — Small Blind — ($1005)
Big Blind — ($1639.55)

Review of the Hand:

Preflop Action: Villain raises to $30. Brokos calls $25 more with 9 9, and the Big Blind folds. The pot is now $70.

Kristy Arnett: What do you remember about the game leading up to this hand?

Andrew Brokos: It was a relatively standard game. There were a lot of regulars, but the one thing I will say is that the player in the big blind was not necessarily a soft spot, but I wouldn’t mind him coming into the pot. I didn’t think he was going to play super well postflop, and I also didn’t think he was going to make a squeeze play very often preflop.

KA: Was the player in the cutoff opening a pretty wide range?

AB: As wide as he should be. I don’t think he’s one of the most aggressive regulars, but he’s definitely a good player who’s going to be opening a lot from the cutoff. I do believe my pocket nines are well ahead of his range. If I three-bet him, it wouldn’t be terrible at all. I do it sometimes, but I think nines have a decent amount of playability postflop when you just call with them versus when you three-bet because it’s difficult to win a big pot with it if you do. That’s because if your opponent four-bets, you’re not very happy about your hand no matter what happens. Even if your opponent just calls and the flop comes seven-high, your opponent is already going to be concerned you have a big pair, so you can’t count on him stacking off with A-7 or even having A-7.

A lot of times, people think they have to three-bet because they have the best hand, and they’re not really thinking about what is going to happen or how it’s going to play out if they get called, or if they are four-bet. How much is it going to really matter that they have pocket nines? In terms of hands that you can three-bet, I prefer three-betting stronger hands or weaker hands like a suited ace that plays well postflop if called. I like the just-call here with nines so that I’m not putting myself in a tricky situation in a big pot out of position.

Flop Action: The comes Q 6 3. Brokos checks and Villain bets $50. Brokos raises to $123. Villain calls. The pot is now $316.

KA: Why did you decide to check-raise?

AB: Situations like this have given me a lot of trouble in the past, hands like this where I probably have the best hand, but there’s a hand my opponent could easily have that’s stronger. Here, my nines are well ahead of his range, but at the same time, he could have a queen, and if he does, then I have very little equity with two outs to improve so I’m pretty much drawing dead if he does have that hand.

At the same time, I know he’s betting so many hands on the flop that my nines are ahead of. I always thought that if my hand was so strong, then I ought to be able to play it for value. It feels odd to check-call with a hand like pocket nines. If you do check-raise, then you risk narrowing your opponent’s range in that he folds everything that you were beating, and calls with only hands that you are drawing nearly dead against. That was my initial concern. What I ultimately decided, though, is that in fact, people call a lot of check-raises here because of what I said earlier about this flop being perfect for him to continuation bet. For the same reason, it’s a good flop for me to check-raise bluff him. You do get into these head games where he knows that I know that he’s going to be betting a lot on this flop so I’m going to be check-raising him a lot, so he’s going to defend with a lot more than just a pair of queens.

Against this particular player, I think he’s going to call with any pair, any draw— not just good draws like a flush draw or 5-4 but even hands like 7-4. He’s probably calling if he has like A-K or A-J, or just an ace high because it could very well be the best hand. He expects me to check-raise bluff here quite a lot, so check-raising with nines is taking advantage of the fact that he expects me to be bluffing a lot, and I’m playing a hand for value that might seem too weak to play for value, but relative to all the times I’d be bluffing here, it’s actually a pretty strong hand.

KA: Because check-raising puts you in a tough situation if you get called or reraised, I see a lot of people only doing it with a very strong hand or on a complete bluff. This seems like a good way to prevent your range from becoming polarized if you are check-raising a hand like nines.

AB: Exactly, because you aren’t going to have a very strong hand all that often. I mean, I could have Q-J, K-Q, A-Q, pocket threes, pocket sixes, maybe pocket queens and that’s about it. There are very few strong hands I could have here. I want to be able to bluff more often than that. I need to realize that a hand like nines is actually pretty strong, just because there aren’t that many ways I could have a strong hand.

Turn Action: The turn is the 5. The board now reads Q 6 3 5. Brokos checks and Villain bets $200. Brokos goes all in for $852 total. Villain calls. The pot is now $2,020.

KA: What was your plan when you check-raised the turn?

AB: I’m sticking with the idea that I’m trying to represent a bluff. I’m trying to confuse him by making it look like I’m bluffing, and I’m actually betting a pretty marginal hand for value. The turn is the 5, which wouldn’t do much for my hand if I was bluffing. The most I could have is a spade draw. I could have 5-4 which means I made a pair but not a very good one. Also, when I check, he could think I was on a pure bluff and just giving up because he called me.

The other nice thing when I check here is that I think he’s going to bet a lot of hands that I want him to bet, just because, you don’t see people check-raise twice very often. A lot of times, people won’t bet this turn if they have a draw, like a hand like 10-9 of spades because if I check-raise them, they won’t be getting quite the right odds to call, but it sucks for them to have put so much money in the pot and have to fold. If people think there is a high risk of getting check-raised, they won’t bet that hand, but he’s really not expecting me to check-raise the turn here so he might bet a draw like that. I also think he can bet a lot of pairs because he expects me to have a draw or a bluff that I’m giving up on, so he’s not worried about pot-controlling. He thinks I won’t put anymore money in if I’m on a bluff or unless I hit my draw, so he can bet, trying to protect his hand. I can see him betting A-3, 5-4, pocket sevens — a lot of hands that my nines are way ahead of.

River and Conclusion: The river is the 4. The board now reads Q 6 3 5 4. Villain shows A 6. Brokos shows 9 9 and wins the pot of $2,017 (after rake).

KA: Did you expect him to call with a hand like he had?

AB: Well, once he bets, he’s almost got the right odds to call me with A-6 even if he saw my pocket nines. With all the draws on the board, the possibility I check-raised him on a draw is there, so I don’t think his call is bad at all. I think it’s actually the right call.

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