Poker Strategy -- Tom Chambers on a Turn Decision in PLOCard Player Pro Trainer Teaches Using Hand Replayer in Training Video |
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Tom Chambers, also known as “LearnedFromTV,” is an online cash-game professional but has had a fair share of tournaments winnings. At the 2008 World Series of Poker, he final-tabled two events and finished second in the $2,500 seven-card stud eight-or-better/Omaha eight-or-better event for $143,000. Chambers is also a trainer at the Card Player Pro video training site (powered by PokerSavvy Plus). In one particular video, Chambers uses a replayer to review several interesting hands that focus on decision-making on the turn, and how they relate to broader PLO concepts. The following is one of those hands.
The Game:
Game: Pot-limit Omaha
Stakes: $3-$6
The Lineup:
plo8: 1,003.95
menacingmeth: $618.80
Tom Chambers: $1,403.25
Review of the hand:
Preflop Action: Tom Chambers raises to $21 on the button with A
J 10
7
. plo8 and menacingmeth call. The pot is now $63.
Tom Chambers: This is a hand that could be worth three-betting, depending on the action and players in front of you. If someone raises in the cutoff who you’ll want to three-bet in general, this might be a hand that you would often use as sort of a value three-bet. If you wanted to encourage the blinds into the pot, that would be a case where you would just call, because this hand plays well in a multi-way, single-raise pot or a heads-up three-bet pot.
Flop Action: The flop comes 8 7 2. plo8 and menacingmeth both check. Chambers bets $42. plo8 folds, and menacingmeth calls. The pot is now $147.
TC: It should be pretty obvious that this is a flop to C-bet [continuation bet]. I have a pair, I’ve got overcards, I’ve got a gutshot-straight draw and the nut-flush draw. On this board, against a set I’m actually just a slight underdog, and against a lot of the draws they could have, I’m favored. Having the pair is nice, against 8-7 I’m in pretty good shape. I’m not sure what side of the 50-50 coin I’m on, but I actually think I’m a favorite here unless they have a lot of my overcards duplicated with 8-7.
Beginning Turn Action: The turn is the K
. The board now reads 8 7 2 K. menacingmeth checks.
TC: From what I knew about menacingmeth at the time that I played this hand, I’d noticed from a handful of hands that he tended to be slightly on the looser-passive side, and particularly on the loose side, and that he’d peel this flop with a decently wide range. I also did not expect him to be someone who would slow-play a big hand, whether it be a flopped set or even 8-7, although 8-7 is the type of hand you can be bet off of when you are playing out of position and you check-call the flop. It’s top two, but obviously a vulnerable two pair. If he had a hand like J-10-8-7, he might check-fold the turn having check-called the flop.
More broadly speaking, I would expect him to peel with lower flush draws. I would expect him to peel with just a straight draw. I would expect him to peel with one pair sometimes — with an overpair like jacks or nines or tens or whatever. Some of those hands I’m ahead of, some of those hands, especially any draw with no pair, I’m ahead of. A lot of the hands I’m ahead of, I expect him to check-call again. I’m ahead of those hands because I have a pair of sevens. My pair of sevens isn’t worth much, but it keeps me ahead in those draw-versus-draw situations. The main thing that I was thinking about in this case was that a) because he didn’t seem like the type of player who would semi-bluff check-raise the turn and also b) because he didn’t seem to be the type of player who would check-call a wider range of draws and possibly one-pair hands than would be advised on the flop, I thought that it was would be very, very unlikely that I’d be check-raised on the turn.
If I do get check-raised — I actually haven’t gone through and done the math — but I think I have to call it off, because against an aggressive player or the kind of player who’s going to be check-raising the turn here, it would be expected that I would have a lot of outs. In other words, if he’s check-raising the turn a lot, he is someone who’s going to be semi-bluffing a decent amount, in which case I might have to call it off. But, again, I actually haven’t done the math on that. It’s probably very, very close.
If I pot the turn and he check-shoves, I’m getting a little better than 2-1, and with 12 clean outs, it’s right on the borderline. The question then is whether or not I have any extra outs, like if I hit an ace, will I be good? If he’s only check-raising with a hand like top-set with kings, or any set really, then I don’t think I have the odds to call it off.
The point being, this is a very borderline spot if I bet and get check-raised. There is some merit if you’re facing somebody who you think would only check-raise or check-fold; there is some merit to checking behind and seeing a river. The other thing to note about my hand is that most of my draws are to the nuts, so one of the balancing factors is that not only am I worried about getting check-raised and put in a tough spot or getting check-raised and losing a lot of equity that I have, but can I maximize value by checking behind and getting there, and getting paid off on the river by somebody who made a worse hand. But because I expect him to check-call with most of his draws that he could have in this situation — weak draws like a 10-9 with a heart draw, draws that I dominate — and also not to be tricky on the river — in other words I don’t expect him to bluff on the river with no pair if he’s check-called twice with a draw — I may find myself checking behind with a pair of sevens and winning, or feeling like I can three-barrel bluff the river.
So, adding all of these things up — and particularly the fact that I didn’t expect to get bluff check-raised or check-raised on the turn very often at all — potting it [on the turn] to build a bigger pot makes sense for all of the times that I get there, it gives me the opportunity to three-barrel bluff (depending on the card), and it gives me the value of betting him off of a pair. If I think about this hand as a bluffing hand. Obviously I have pair of sevens, so I’m trying to bluff him off of an 8 or mid-pair — nines, tens, jacks, or whatever. Some of the draws with a pair like J-J-10, getting him to fold that on the turn is a big advantage.
Ending Turn Action: Chambers bets $145, and menacingmeth folds. Chambers wins the pot of $293.
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