Most Dangerous

In a recent column about limit hold'em, I referred to pocket tens as "one of the most dangerous hands in hold'em." In a recent discussion, I was asked if I considered pocket tens to be the "most dangerous" hand in no-limit hold'em. Pocket tens may be dangerous (especially if you choose to go all in before the flop), but in my opinion, they are not even close to being the "most dangerous" hand. That distinction, in my opinion, belongs to A-K.

In no-limit hold'em, it is fairly routine to fold pocket tens when faced with adversity. Folding an A-K is not that easy to do. Even before the flop, it is usually difficult to fold an A-K unless you have extraordinary information suggesting that pocket aces or pocket kings are likely.

Note that A-K is approximately a coin toss when heads up against most pockets pairs, and a substantial favorite against all other hands. Thus, when you are in a gambling mode in a no-limit hold'em tournament because you have an inadequate amount of chips to play more selectively and skillfully, you usually get good odds by shoving your stack in before the flop with an A-K – which, of course, is quite dangerous!

But the "most dangerous" aspect of playing an A-K in no-limit hold'em is when an aggressive bettor "comes over the top" of you after a good flop. For example, let's say that you make a fair-size raise before the flop and only one player calls you. The flop comes with either an ace or a king and two low cards. You make some appropriate bet (of course, this is also subject to discussion), and your opponent pushes his stack in. Assuming that it's a big stack, you'd probably fold, right?

Note that if this same scenario occurred in limit hold'em, you might well afford to "call your opponent down" and see what he is so proud of (if indeed you do not reraise after the flop to check him out). If a player cold-calls your before-the-flop raise, the only hand he "should" have that beats you is a set (he called with a pocket pair and made a set on the flop). However, quite frequently an aggressive opponent will push at high cards with merely a pair (but, of course, that largely depends on the specific player).

In no-limit hold'em, the price of calling might be over 10 times more than calling in limit hold'em. Otherwise put, an unaffordable loss constitutes an unacceptable risk. So, unfortunately, you will probably have to lay down your A-K, simply because that is usually the correct play. In no-limit, it is usually right to live to fight another day (and maybe next time you will have the set).

For that reason, your opponent might well be bluffing, or perhaps making a come bluff (with a four-flush or other draw). Or, he could be raising with the same big pair but with a queen or jack kicker, in which case you have him outkicked.

Should the possibility of someone coming over the top influence the size of your first two bets (the raise before the flop and the bet after the flop)? Probably, yes! But that depends at least somewhat upon the image of your opponent as well as your own image.

If you frequently make "measured bets" (for example, a "times two" bet), a loss will make only a small dent in your stack, and it's better to lose a small dent than your whole stack. Although it is a bit demoralizing to fold what might well be the best hand (especially if your opponent shows the bluff), you might console yourself with happy thoughts of a future hand in which you might have the nuts in this situation.

I have encountered this situation thrice recently. Twice I laid down my hand, which was probably correct. The third time, I was playing against a joker, so I fished in and called. I had an anxious moment when he proudly showed two low pair (he had called my before-the-flop raise with 7-5 suited), but I had the last laugh when the board paired on the last card, giving me two higher pair.

Although we all like to pick up an A-K, it actually ends up being "the nuts" less than 5 percent of the time. And much of the other 95 percent of the time, you should expect to sweat it in no-limit.