Beware of 'Expert' Opinions<p><p>

You're playing $20-$40 Texas hold'em and raise under the gun. A player to your left calls, as does Roy Cooke, who is on the button. It should be easy to narrow down the possible hands that Cooke, a noted professional and Card Player columnist, may be holding. You can be sure that he doesn't hold rags, since he's a solid player who wouldn't call a raise cold with a bad hand. He might raise with a bad hand if he's making a move, but especially in a limit game, there's little deception to be gained from just calling. You can also be fairly sure that he doesn't have a drawing hand, like a suited connector. Because it isn't a multiway pot, there's not enough value for making a call correct here. He also probably doesn't hold a hand like A-J or K-Q, since those are the type of hands that don't play well against an early-position raiser.

In this spot, you'd have to put Cooke on either a fairly big pair or a hand like A-Q suited. With a big pair, he might reraise to get rid of the blinds, but he also might smooth-call to try to trap you. In fact, how he perceives you will play a big role in how he plays the hand. With a hand like A-Q suited, he may not want to reraise, fearing that you have A-K. There may be a few other hands Cooke could have, but for the most part, his calling in this position makes his hand somewhat predictable.

But wait a second, aren't good players like Cooke supposed to be unpredictable and difficult to read? Yes and no. Yes, a good player will vary his play enough to be unpredictable. No, a good player is logical and, most of the time, will play his hand in a logical way. In The Education of a Poker Player, Herbert O. Yardley said, "If you overvalue or undervalue another's intellect, you will guess wrong. If you want to know when to call and when to bluff, identify yourself with your opponent's cunning."

Reading the actions of others also applies to people with whom you don't come in contact directly. When Warren Buffett trades a stock, other investors assume that he knows something and follow his lead. Because Buffett is known for being savvy and rational, much can be gleaned from his decisions. But just because know-it-all Uncle Marty, who has been "temporarily" unemployed for about the last eight years or so, put his life savings in some penny stock on the Vancouver exchange doesn't mean you have to follow his lead. In the book One Up on Wall Street, Peter Lynch said, "…the smart money isn't so smart, and the dumb money isn't really as dumb as it thinks. Dumb money is only dumb when it listens to smart money."

In the 1998 NBA draft, you probably figured that the Los Angeles Clippers had done their homework when they made center Michael Olowokandi from the University of the Pacific the first overall pick. But if you had followed the Clippers, you would have known that they had a history of making bad draft choices. Their selection all but guaranteed that Olowokandi would be a bust and that Antawn Jamison and Vince Carter – two players chosen after him – would turn out to be stars.

Conversely, when the shrewd Jerry West of the Los Angeles Lakers traded all-star center Vlade Divac to the Charlotte Hornets for the rights to some unproven high school kid in 1996, you had to figure that West had a little something up his sleeve. That little something turned out to be Kobe Bryant. This was also the same Jerry West who traded all-star Eddie Jones and Elden Campbell for an aging Glen Rice in 1999. When Rice was traded after a year and a half, it was apparent that even the "expert" West is prone to making mistakes.

It's quicker to go on somebody else's word than doing your own research, but for a decision of any consequence, there's no substitute for your own judgment. Create your own litmus test for evaluating a person or a project, and if someone you respect has an opinion that runs counter to yours, re-evaluate and try to determine why. If you're still satisfied with your conclusion, stick to your guns.

It's been said that the most dangerous player at the poker table is the one who has just called two bets cold – but that doesn't account for which player called two bets cold. Consider the source, without taking the opinions of experts as gospel. Even if Roy Cooke calls two raises cold, there's still a chance that your pocket jacks are the best hand. Just don't bet on it!

Greg Dinkin is the author of The Poker Principle: How to Convert a Winning Hand in Poker to a Winning Hand in Business, which will be published by Crown in April 2002. He is also the co-founder of Venture Literary (www.ventureliterary.com), where he works with writers to find publishers for their books and producers for their screenplays.