The New Look of the Game

There has been an ongoing change in football in recent years that has changed the look of the game. That new look involves the growing move to attacking, pressuring defenses, and the countering offensive strategy of the spread-'em-out, multiple-receiver style on offense. The combined result is more wide-open football overall, and the relative declining importance of the running back vs. the growing importance of the quarterback.

Coach Gary Barnett of Colorado, formerly a staunch advocate of the power ground game during the years when he elevated the struggling Northwestern program to a bowl-caliber operation, has fairly concisely described the essence of the changing appearance of the game.

Barnett said, "It used to be if you had a great tailback, you could win a lot of games. But defenses have changed so much that the quarterback, hands down, is the most important player in college football."

Barnett accurately acknowledges the popular trend of using both safeties to defend against the run, with defenses these days often putting eight or nine players "in the box" (that is, within two or three yards of the line of scrimmage from tight end on one side to tackle on the other), counting on their cornerbacks to cover an opponent's wide receivers one on one.

"The only way you can exploit that is to have a quarterback who can throw the ball against man-to-man coverage and receivers who are better than the defenders. Everybody's answer has been to spread it out, play more wide receivers, take the safeties out of the box, and make them go to coverage. When that happens, the premium is on the accuracy of your quarterback, and if he can run when he gets in trouble," stated Barnett.

Thus, the value of strong-armed, evasive QBs. Even though Barnett is referring to college football, he could not have painted a better picture of the value of NFL QBs such as Rich Gannon of Oakland, Daunte Culpepper of Minnesota, Donovan McNabb of Philadelphia, Steve McNair of Tennessee, and Jeff Garcia of San Francisco. The mobility of Joe Montana and Steve Young helped them rank among the all-time leaders in passing efficiency in NFL history. Brett Favre has just enough mobility, guile, and toughness to have started 141 straight games going into this season.

If you don't have a QB with at least a little escapability these days, you better have a very strong offensive line and running back who can "mash." That mashing line and great RB worked for Dallas in the heyday of Emmitt Smith and Troy Aikman. But look at the pocket-locked Aikman now; he retired due to concussions sustained while in the pocket, mostly from hits delivered by guys coming from all angles of the modern eight- or nine-man defensive fronts.

The days of the NFL prototype QB being a rocket-armed, linebacker-sized, 6-foot-4 or 6-foot-5 physical specimen who can stand tall in the pocket and see over the defense might be coming to an end. If that big QB can't move, or if he doesn't have an offensive line and RB who can "mash," he's a sitting duck in the pocket for today's ever-faster and more athletic defensive linemen and linebackers.

Moreover, if a team can't run the ball with any success against the eight- or nine-man fronts, it is going to see more of those defenses than it ever wants to, and if that team's QB isn't nimble on his feet, he is going to be risking life and limb.

There are a few solutions to this defensive trend, and teams that possess those solutions might have the edge these days. And handicappers are always in search of edges.

One solution is to develop an offensive line, blocking techniques, and RBs who can still produce, even against eight- or nine-man fronts. The Denver Broncos did this a few years, winning two Super Bowls (and nearly three) in the process. Dozens of teams have sent coaches to Denver to study how the Broncos do it, with the result being a move away from hulking 330-pound behemoth "hogs" to relatively smaller and quicker linemen.

Another counter, as referred to above, is to use quarterbacks more often as runners. QBs who will willingly and repeatedly run at openings created by spread offenses using four or five receivers often give their teams an edge, especially in college football. This has worked very well in recent seasons for teams such as Tulane, Clemson, and Northwestern.

Teams can also employ high-quality WRs in quantity, as Barnett said, forcing teams to take their safeties out of the tackle box and into pass-coverage responsibilities. Smart coaches then design plays to isolate their fastest or biggest receiver against a slower or smaller DB. Frequent, effective use of this idea helped the Rams race to an NFL championship in the 1999 season.

Also, teams can employ either superquick or very powerful RBs (such as Ken Simonton of Oregon State, or Marshall Faulk, Eddie George, and Edgerrin James in the pros) who excel at running against spread-out defenses. Without the benefit of a lead blocker (who has been exchanged in favor of another speedy receiver), these guys have the ability to either shed tacklers or make the first guy miss at the line of scrimmage, bursting into spread-out defenses manned by more defensive backs than linebackers. Needless to say, RBs like these don't grow on trees.

If teams can't or won't employ any of the four counters mentioned above, they could have hard times against today's speedy players and eight-man fronts. Does this explain what has happened to Joe Paterno at Penn State? At least partly so. Paterno employs what he believes is a time-tested style; that is, a tall, pocket-passing QB, a burly fullback as a lead blocker for his halfbacks, and his classic 4-3 alignment on defense that plays lots of old-fashioned zone coverage in order to minimize long gainers. Even with dozens of redshirt high school all-Americans, that's too predictable these days – and it doesn't feature enough flexibility, or enough speed on the field.

Chuck Sippl is senior editor of The Gold Sheet, the "bible" for sports bettors since 1957. To get more handicapping ideas, angles, power ratings, and emerging-player information, subscribe to The Gold Sheet or pick one up at your local newsstand. If you haven't seen The Gold Sheet and would like a complimentary copy, call (800) 798-GOLD (4653) and say that you read about it in Card Player. You can look up The Gold Sheet on the web at www.goldsheet.com.