Betting NFL Totals

Many poker players also bet on sports. Clearly, poker and sports betting are connected by some striking similarities. These two forms of gambling tend to attract like-minded people. Like poker, sports betting requires a serious investment of time and energy (to be a winner, anyway). Like poker, sports betting is fundamentally different from other forms of gambling, since its best players can earn a very good living by doing it. Like poker, sports betting demands a great deal of subject knowledge, careful contemplation, and a willingness to act. Like poker, luck is certainly involved, but the players with better instincts and years of experience will usually get the money in the long run.

For the past few years, I have earned most of my income not at the poker table, but by betting sports. Without a doubt, my favorite time of the year is football season. Although some "experts" believe the NFL is the most difficult sport to predict, my results indicate otherwise. In fact, I have made more money betting NFL games than any other sport over the past five years. There's no doubt about it – an astute bettor can make money betting on professional football games.

Most football bettors concentrate on teams. They bet on one side or the other based on the pointspread. However, I believe the most exploitable angle of football betting is NFL totals. Totals, or "overs/unders," represent the total number of points expected to be scored by both teams combined in a game. Over the years, I have developed a routine when I handicap NFL totals. I was recently asked to share this advice with a group of sports bettors. Afterward, I thought it might be helpful to many poker players, as well – particularly those who like to bet on sports. Regarding NFL totals, here are several important points to consider:

It is generally advisable to look for under plays rather than over plays. Most novice bettors tend to bet the overs. They like to watch high-scoring games, which are more exciting. Knowledgeable bettors understand that it's more likely that nothing will happen than it is something will happen. When nothing happens, it's likely that the game is going under the total.

Another reason why betting the unders is preferable to betting the overs is that for a game to go over, both offenses usually have to score points. If one offense has a dismal game, or the star quarterback gets injured and leaves the game early, one of the teams will probably score a minimal number of points. That puts lots of pressure on the opposing team to come up with the difference in points, which is not likely to happen except in the most lopsided games.

Unders tend to be stronger plays early in the regular season and very late in the season. Midseason games tend to be neutral. Early in the season, offenses often struggle, as they are not used to playing a complete game with new players (this is especially true with younger teams). Heat and humidity also slows down offenses in hot weather cities. Late in the season, as injuries begin to take a toll, offenses that lose key players at skill positions become crippled. Rookies and second-year players are expected to perform at the same level as veterans. Inclement weather also starts to become a factor, including cold, wind, and snow.

Pay attention to "key" numbers; 37 is absolutely the most important number in NFL totals betting. It's not that so many games necessarily fall right on 37, but that the further the posted total strays from 37 (the mean per game total points scored in all NFL games over the past 20 years), the more or less something must occur apart from the statistical norm.

Any total less than 37 automatically triggers a contrarian reaction from me. I look to bet over the total (it's not that I always do so, but it is my first instinct when looking at a game). Any total over 37 automatically triggers a reaction toward the under. This brings up an unconventional methodology that relies on the notion that public perceptions are often more wrong than right. During the past several years, I have made more money betting under totals in the 37-43 range than in any other situation. More games tend to fall in this range than any other.

A key number to look at for games expected to be low-scoring is 34. In a game in which both defenses are solid and/or both offenses are weak, 34.5 is a gift for an under player. Consider that common NFL scores – such as 31-3, 28-6, 27-7, 24-10, 21-13, and 20-14 – fall right on 34. The hook here (the half-point) is critical. On the other hand, I like to look at going over the number 33.5, since four touchdowns and two field goals is all it takes to break that number. When the public overreacts to two strong defenses, that's sometimes a wonderful time to bet the over, because the number may be far too low (last year's Super Bowl was a great example; it went over the total).

Look carefully at the quality of both kicking games. Teams with strong kickers (who can kick 50-yard field goals) are worth 3 to 6 points to any total. On the other hand, teams with weak kickers are not as likely to score as many points, nor go over a total.

Examine coaching philosophy. One benchmark I always use when predicting totals goes like this: "What will the head coach do if he has a fourth-and-one situation at the opponent's 36-yard line?" Will he elect to punt, trying to trap the opposing team deep in its own territory? Will he go for the first down? Will he attempt a 53-yard field goal? If you can answer this question correctly, you are halfway to picking the game right. I can guarantee you that this situation will come up in almost every NFL game. How a coach reacts to it, including how much confidence he has in his offensive line, means the difference between scoring 3 or 7 points. If you guess right about both coaches' intentions, you may have an intrinsic value of 6 to 10 points toward predicting the total.

As the total increases, key numbers diminish in importance. For example, 38 and 40 are both key numbers. The number 41 is key (about as important as 34 is for lower-scoring games) because of common scoring multiples, such as 35-6, 34-7, 31-10, 28-13, 27-14, 24-17, and 21-20; 44 is another key number because so many scores fall on this number (especially when teams with powerful offenses are playing), such as 41-3, 34-10, 31-13, 30-14, 28-16, and 24-20. I rarely bet the over with a total of 44, because I don't like having to expect six-plus touchdowns in a game. But I will often go under a high number when I see that at least one defense is solid, or that one team could dominate the other and play conservatively in the second half. For instance, if one team is up 34-3 late in the game, it will probably run out the clock in the final few minutes and the game will go under. Look for games that might fall into this pattern (mismatches) and go under.

When I see a good under opportunity late in the season at a cold weather site, I always bet it as early in the week as possible. NFL totals are usually based on "neutral" field conditions. The weather cannot possibly improve, but may very well deteriorate – especially in cities such as Pittsburgh, Cleveland, New York, New England, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Chicago, Philadelphia, Baltimore, Washington, and other Northern cities. In a sense, I am on a total freeroll when I bet an under late in the season at a cold weather site. But if you wait until game time, when the weather forecast calls for 5 inches of snow, the total will drop like a lead balloon and you will lose value. Bet unders early in the week. This can even apply in early-season games, as a driving rainstorm (in Florida games or Seattle, for example) can slow down the passing games. High winds can pop up almost anywhere. Again, unders give you a freeroll, since the weather can only get worse from the moment the totals are released on Monday.

On the other hand, bet overs later in the week, when you are convinced the game will be played in fair conditions and injuries should not be a factor. Last season, I touted Denver and Kansas City to go over the total. The game was played in Kansas City in early December. I did not foresee that the temperature at game time would be 5 degrees. I lost the bet because I acted too quickly without a reliable weather report.

Cold weather does not always mean a low-scoring game. Bad teams in cold weather often have trouble scoring. But, teams with good offenses are used to the conditions, and the cold weather actually can create higher-scoring games as defenders have trouble with the field conditions. Games played in Green Bay go over just as often as under later in the season. Cold weather simply does not seem to affect some teams.

I tend to stay away from totals on games played in domes. I dislike domes. I hate artificial turf. It's like handicapping a horse race in which every horse is on lasix for the first time. Teams playing in perfect 72-degree weather, on carpet, can do just about anything offensively. Add the fact that the dome teams all seem to have explosive offenses (Indianapolis, St. Louis, New Orleans, and Minnesota), and it only decreases the predictability of these games.

Stay away from high-scoring teams. It's much easier to predict what the Cleveland Browns offense is going to do (usually nothing) than it is the Denver or St. Louis offense. The question for these high-scoring teams is not if they will score, but how much they will score. You might as well shoot dice. But, with bad offensive teams such as Cleveland, you are always freerolling the possibility that the bad team will be shut out (leading to an almost certain under). But there's no way that any defense is going to hold the Rams to just 10 points. It's simply not going to happen – barring major injuries. Conclusion: Weaker offenses are easier to predict.

Big-play offenses that complete lots of long passes are great over plays, but decent offensive teams that rely on long drives and lots of time consumption (also called "ball control") can be strong under plays. The Giants and Jaguars are good examples of teams that score a fair number of points but usually burn up a lot of clock time in the process. If a team scores 3 or 7 points, that's not necessarily a bad thing (for the under) if it also burns up eight minutes of clock time.

When betting unders, avoid teams that like to throw the ball deep. If a team throws deep passes frequently, bad things are going to happen: The passes are either going to be caught (bad) or fall incomplete (bad – because the clock stops). An interception may even be bad, since the other team will usually run it back and could have the ball at midfield. With flag-happy officials, there is also the increased chance of pass interference calls – which absolutely kill under plays.

Never underestimate the power of a half-point. The difference between 36.5 and 37 can be monumental. I can't even begin to count the number of totals I've won by a point or a half-point. The point is, it's a very good idea to shop around and find the best number possible.