Maximizing Gain, Minimizing Loss

A huge component of winning in poker is making the maximum on your winning hands and losing the minimum on your losing hands. Often, making the effort to get the most out of your hand will result in your losing the maximum when your hand is no good. When analyzing these types of poker problems, it is important to think in terms of expectation rather than in terms of bets, and to think of how your hand plays from street to street. Playing a hand in a manner that earns the maximum if it is good with the least amount of risk if it is no good is the sign of a world-class player.

I was in a fired-up $30-$60 hold'em game on a Saturday night. Many weekend tourists were in the cardroom at Bellagio. An aggressive tourist raised the pot up front. Three players called the raise cold, including a tight young wanna-be pro on the button. I was in the small blind holding A-K offsuit. Often, I will reraise with that holding in that position, believing that it is the best hand and wanting to build a big pot in case I win. That play is stronger with the raiser closer to the button. When that is the case, there is a greater possibility of folding hands that have flat-called prior to the raise, thereby putting dead money into the pot, creating a better price for my hand. In this particular scenario, it was very unlikely that anyone would fold, since all of the players already had two bets in the pot and none of them were in much of a folding mood.

I put in four chips, choosing to call the raiser. I didn't have good position; the only player I could possibly get to fold by reraising was the big blind. I also thought the tourist who raised before the flop would bet any flop that brought an ace or king, allowing me to check-raise the field if I flopped a hand. I made the play of calling while thinking ahead to what I should do if I happened to hit the flop. The big blind folded to the preflop raise.

The concept that resulted in my preflop decision to just call was this: By playing in a manner that manipulated the size of the pot, I lowered the price that my opponents would be receiving to draw at my hand on the flop and the turn if I hit the flop and made my check-raise. I could charge the field at least two bets to draw at my hand if I made a pair.

I caught a favorable flop for my hand: K-7-5 rainbow. I followed my preflop thought process and checked to the preflop raiser, intent on check-raising. The preflop raiser did not disappoint me – he fired. Two players called and the wanna-be pro on the button raised. I three-bet, not wanting to let any of my other opponents attempt to draw out on me for only one extra small bet. All of my rivals folded except the wanna-be, who four-bet.

When he four-bet, my mind went through the range of hands that he might hold. There was no draw available that a player with his hand selection would have played. He had either a king or a set; there was no two-pair hand he would have played. I thought about how he would play these hands if I five-bet. He might fold a weaker king on the turn when I bet, a fold that I would not want him to make. He also might just call me down with three fives, fearing that I might have three sevens. I had played my hand in a deceptive manner, and didn't think he put me on A-K. I decided to flat-call, let him bet down, and pay him off.

A deuce came on the turn and I checked. My opponent, surprisingly, also checked. I knew my hand was good when he knuckled behind me. A king came off on the river, giving me three kings. I thought if I bet, my opponent would only call. But, if I checked, he would bet any king or possibly a hand such as wired tens, although I thought it was unlikely that he held such a hand. I checked, he bet, and I check-raised him, picking up the bet I had lost on the turn. He paid me off, and I turned my hand over and took the pot.

Maximizing gain and minimizing loss equations come up all the time in poker. The analysis often gets very complicated, requiring a good feel for the game and accurate knowledge of how your opponents are likely to play given hands. Developing that ability requires paying close attention to your opponents' play, and mentally reviewing previously played hands in order to develop the thought process to guide you through given situations. By retroactively analyzing hands, you will have mental associations available when similar situations present themselves. Being able to do so effectively will increase the expectation from your hands tremendously. And when a situation presents itself, you'll tend to win more and lose less.

Editor's note: Roy Cooke played winning professional poker for 16 years. He is a successful real estate broker/salesperson in Las Vegas.