Guarantees and 'Locks'

The period of late November through January can be a very dangerous time of the season for football bettors – especially the naive ones.

This is a time when so many unscrupulous sports services come out with their various "locks" of the year – "NFL Lock of the Year," "Bowl Lock of the Year," "Playoff Lock of the Year" – or whatever else they can dream up as promotions to help shrive naive sports bettors of some of their hard-earned cash.

So, it's a good time to take a look at the ridiculous sports concepts of "locks" and "guarantees." First, I'm going to point out, there are no locks. More on this later.

Let's first take a look at the concept of "guaranteed" wins that every so often comes from players and coaches who can't restrain their passion and testosterone during an interview either leading up to or following a game. Such "guarantees" should always draw the attention of handicappers.

Let's take the situation of UNLV football this year. The Rebels, who finished 8-5 and beat Arkansas in the Las Vegas Bowl last season, got off to a disappointing start in 2001. They lost their opener 14-10 in the closing seconds in Little Rock, lost their next two games to Northwestern and at Arizona, and then dropped a 35-31 heartbreaker to high-flying BYU, which scored its winning TD with just over a minute to play. It was the first time in his head-coaching career that John Robinson had started a season 0-4. After the loss to BYU, the proud Robinson promised his team and the media that the talented Rebels would win their next seven games and earn a bowl berth. Just three games later, UNLV lost 26-24 at home as a 4.5-point favorite over Colorado State. Two weeks later came a 42-14 loss to Utah, the Rebels' sixth defeat of the season. Goodbye bowl chances.

Or, how about Lou Piniella of the Seattle Mariners? He was tabbed "Loudini" as his magical Mariners set a new American League record for victories in a season. Then, they knocked off Cleveland in the first round of the playoffs. However, it was when Seattle dropped the first two games at home in the American League Championship Series to the Yankees that Piniella "lost it." He burst into the interview room, and before anyone could get off any questions, Loudini "guaranteed" that his team would be returning to Seattle for a sixth game. Of course, they never made it, losing games four and five at Yankee Stadium (with his pitchers getting "lit up" for 15 runs) after winning game three.

Then, we have this year's University of Minnesota team. The Golden Gophers were upset by the behavior of the Ohio State players after Minnesota won last year's game 29-17 in Columbus, alleging that the stunned Buckeyes showed no "class" when they trudged off the field, refusing to shake hands with the victorious Gophers. This year's game was in Minneapolis, and a couple of the Gopher players promised to make the Buckeyes pay for disrespecting them. Junior starting wideout Antoine Burns said the Gophers "are going to beat Ohio State." And sophomore tight end Ben Utecht pointed out that Ohio State had blown an 18-point lead in its previous game, a loss at Penn State, and boasted that the Gophers "will give them another one."

Their boasts quickly made it to the Ohio State locker room. Although the pointspread on that game had opened at Ohio State -3.5, it quickly fell to -3 and then dropped to Buckeyes -1.5 by game time. Unfortunately for the Gopher backers, Minnesota not only forgot to win the game, they also lost by three points (31-28), costing the majority of their backers their money.

There is a lesson in the three "guarantee" situations cited above. When someone in sports makes a "guarantee," the main effects are to heighten the drama of the upcoming game and increase the psychological pressure on the players of the "guarantee" team.

We all know that every honest sporting event is a live drama in which the outcome is unknown. That's what makes them fascinating to watch, and why there is wagering on them. They are not scripted, like pro wrestling.

This year's World Series between the Diamondbacks and Yankees is a prime example. Only the best of the best writers could have dreamed up the twists and turns that actually unfolded as the Series progressed. And there were few who thought that Arizona could ever come back in the ninth inning and score the tying and winning runs against the great Mariano Rivera. And weren't the Yankees supposed to be a team of "destiNY" after the events of Sept. 11 in New York? Apparently not.

That's why you should run away from anyone who ever tries to sell you a "lock." There is no such animal. "Locks" are strictly marketing and promotional gimmicks that produce false hopes among the naive and generate hype for the use of telemarketers and print advertisers. Think about it. If they really knew that a game was in fact a "lock" and that it couldn't possibly lose, they would bet all of their money on it, and try to get more. And, why should they tell you? Are they that interested in the financial welfare of complete strangers? Theoretically, if the game were in fact a "lock," with no possible chance of losing (like a royal flush in poker), one should bet an infinite amount of money on it.

It is true that people have, at times, bet all of their money on the outcome of a sporting event. Very often they are very, very sorry they did – because injuries in a game can ruin a bet; judgment calls by referees, coaches, and managers can ruin a bet; the weather can ruin a bet; and telecasts of presidential speeches and guys driving white Ford Broncos might ruin a bet. If you were to offer me $100 for each one, I'd come up with 50 scenarios that could faze an otherwise solid wager.

There are no locks.

Chuck Sippl is senior editor of The Gold Sheet, the "bible" for sports bettors since 1957. To get more handicapping advice, forecasts, angles, power ratings, and emerging-player information, subscribe to The Gold Sheet, or pick one up at your local newsstand. If you haven't seen The Gold Sheet and would like to review a complimentary copy, call (800) 798-GOLD (4653) and say you read about The Gold Sheet in Card Player. You can check the web at www.goldsheet.com.