An Interesting Flop Situation

Once again, my friend Ken has provided me with an interesting hold'em problem. He sent me an E-mail with a transcript of a hand he'd played online. He had made an interesting play and asked my thoughts about it. A single early-position player limped in, another player who had posted a blind checked, Ken called with the K 10 on the button, the small blind called, and the big blind checked.

The flop came K J 3. It was checked to the early-position caller, who bet. The blind poster folded, and Ken raised. That seems like an obvious play – Ken has top pair and a moderately good kicker, and (not incidentally) three to a straight flush. Everybody folded back to the original bettor, who reraised. This is where it gets interesting. Ken said, "He hadn't been raising at all. And he had to respect my raise, because there were so many players behind. The least I could put him on was K-J (top two pair). So, I folded. Was it a good fold?"

Well, Ken was in the game and I wasn't, so he had a better read on his opponent, but I'm not comfortable with folding here. Here's how my thinking would go:

"Yikes!"

If all is going well, the thinking would continue about like this: "He hasn't raised all evening, and now he's three-betting. That isn't a good sign. He may well have me outkicked with K-Q, he could have A-K (although I imagine even he would have raised with that hand), and if he's got K-J, I've got serious problems."

So far, so good. Ken got this far, realized that he was very likely behind, perhaps a lot behind, and decided to get out. Now, if it was a mistake to fold here, I can't think it was a big one – there's every indication that Ken was in trouble. But with the luxury of hindsight, let's think some more …

"I'd like to fold right here, but I can't. It's mostly that three-straight-flush staring me in the face that makes me stick around. I can't be sure if he's got K-J, and even if he does, I've got some outs. I've got position on this guy, and I'm getting 10-to-1 to call one bet and see a turn card."

So, now we're committed to the turn. Are we committed any further? Let's go back inside my head …

"So, I have to call … but wait. On this online poker server, there's a three-raise maximum, even heads up. If I re-reraise, he can't raise any more. So, if I put in an extra small bet here, we get a turn card guaranteed for that price. If the turn doesn't help me, and he bets again into the face of my raising twice on the flop, I'm done."

This (after I had thought about it awhile) was my favorite choice – to get hyperaggressive on the flop, knowing that my opponent couldn't put in a fifth bet. If, on the turn, he fired a bet into the teeth of all that aggression, the pot was his.

But what if he checked the turn? "Take the free card and call on the river," I told Ken. If a 10 hit on the turn, I'd almost be obliged to bet (if he's got K-J, good for him). But if a king hit the turn, I might take the free card.

Now, what if I pick up a draw on the turn and he bets?

"He's got a big hand. I raised twice on the flop and he's still betting the turn. This is not the time to get fancy. If I try a raise-the-turn-and-check-the-river play, he's likely to reraise me on the turn, which I will just hate. I'll have to call the raise on the turn, and by the time we get to the river, the pot will be humongous, and I'll probably feel obliged to call there, too. No, in this case, discretion is the better part of valor. I'll call the turn, and plan to hit my draw on the river."

And, finally, let's think through the river …

"What will I do on the river if my draw doesn't get there? Will I have to call there? It would be just the one bet, and I'd be getting about 8-to-1 to call. Well, normally, yes, I would have to call. But let's review the bidding, as my bridge-playing friends are fond of saying. I raised twice on the flop (with no apparent draw on the board), and then called his bet on the turn. Surely, he expects me to call the river. If he's betting, it's for value – he is planning to get paid off by a worse hand. You know what? Top pair with a silly 10 kicker is a worse hand. I'm not paying off on the river."

That's a very strong laydown, but I think I can make it. My behavior didn't say "missed draw," it said "pretty big hand." He's planning to get called, and I think the chance that he would bluff on the river is less than one in nine.

"Yep, I four-bet the flop, and then fold the turn if I don't improve or pick up a draw. If I have to call the turn, I'll fold on the river if I don't improve there."