Poker's Attractive Loss Rate

The continuing health and future growth of poker are both critically dependent on an influx of new players. Some of those new players will go on to take the game seriously, while others will return home from vacation and not think about poker until the next time they happen to be near a cardroom. In either case, it's important to understand and minimize the barriers that stand in the way of people who would genuinely enjoy some serious poker.

Like many of the fine and worthwhile things in life – great music and great literature are two obvious examples – poker presents substantial barriers to newcomers. These barriers include the language and customs, the simple procedures we take for granted, and the game's strategic complexity. It takes some concentration to play well, and even playing poker poorly takes more effort than playing the slots, or even basic-strategy blackjack. At the same time, poker also presents great rewards for perseverance. It's a fascinating and engaging game, and one of the few things you can do as a casino patron with any hope of long-term profit.

Unfortunately, as is the case with certain kinds of music and literature, the barriers are more obvious to newcomers than the rewards, making it difficult for people to get started. We all know it's worth it, and that many people who would enjoy the game are missing out unnecessarily. But how can we encourage more people to give poker a shot? This is a complex question, to which I hope to return from time to time. For today, I'll offer one view of an underrated aspect of poker that might not be immediately apparent to potential new players.

I'd like to argue that one of poker's greatest assets, in terms of attracting certain kinds of players, is something that winning players rarely consider: the loss rate of a conscientious but inexperienced player. Serious poker players, professional or otherwise, like to talk about win rate. It's generally accepted that the best win rate an exceptional player can expect, playing in midlimit ring games and without exercising unusually stringent game selection, is about one and a half big bets an hour. But poker players rarely talk about the flip side, the maximum loss rate of a conscientious player just out to have a good time.

Let me assert that a relatively new player sitting down at a low-limit game (say, $2-$4 hold'em) should easily be able to play with an expected loss of less than three big bets per hour. To the average professional, a three-bet loss rate doesn't sound like a big selling point. But to someone used to pouring their paychecks into the slot machines, the prospect of gambling action on only $12 an hour might not sound too bad. And to the player intrigued by poker, but unsure if it's for him, knowing that he can set a relatively palatable upper limit on his losses might be the perfect form of encouragement. Losses at poker are much more easily contained, for a given period of play, than losses at table games, or even slot machines. Although the action in the poker room looks fast and furious, and may be intimidating to the newcomer, in reality it may be among the most affordable casino games for the recreational gambler.

Can an inexperienced poker player really play with an expected loss of less than three big bets? Depending on the local rake, three big bets at a $2-$4 game might be what the house expects to take off the table, per player per hour. In that case, what's needed is a strategy that will break even against the other players. To most experienced players, the idea of playing dead-solid average at the smallest game in the room may not sound so great. But if an easily articulated strategy can accomplish just that, poker ought to be an extremely attractive game to a much broader audience of weekend players and vacationers. It's important to keep the strategy as simple as possible. After all, some of the players I'm talking about are liable to drift toward the slot machines if poker starts to sound like too much of a burden. So, I'm going to assume I have the player's attention for about the amount of time it takes to read a business card – one paragraph, tops.

So, what is this simple strategy that will restrict losses to about three big bets per hour?

Let me stall a minute. Is it even plausible that we could articulate a perfectly average poker strategy in clear language in just a paragraph? It's not as crazy as it sounds. There's a law of nature that helps us out here, sometimes known as Zipf's Law, but easier to describe as the 80-20 rule, which says (once we adapt it to poker) that 20 percent of the strategic knowledge gets you 80 percent of the way to being a solid player. Of course, this is a gross oversimplification, and vague, to boot, but I think it's functional enough to make the point that we shouldn't be surprised if beginning poker players can go a long way with just a few bits of strategy, as long as we pick the right few things.

So, it's time to make good. The strategy outlined below should be just enough to give players the confidence to sit down. It's intended to be easy to follow, bulleted for readability, and if you were so inclined, you could print it on a plastic card with the title "Basic Poker Strategy" at the top, and sell it in casino gift shops for $3.95. In fact, feel free to do so, as long as you give me credit. The flip side of the card should probably have a concise explanation of each game's rules.

First, here's the hold'em version:

• Before the flop: Play all pocket pairs, any two cards jack or higher (10 is OK if your cards are the same suit), and adjacent cards of the same suit down to 8-7. If both of your cards are queen or higher, raise. Every round, you may play one additional hand, at your discretion.

• On the flop: "Top pair" means a pair of whatever the highest card on the board is. Bet or raise if you have top pair or can beat top pair, or if you have four cards to a flush (a flush draw). If someone else raises first, just call. Check and call if you have four consecutive cards to a straight (a straight draw). Check and fold everything else.

• On the turn: Bet or raise with two pair or better. Just call with top pair, a flush draw, or a straight draw. Check and fold everything else.

• On the river: Continue to bet and raise with three of a kind, unless there are four suited cards on the board, or four cards to a straight. If you have a straight or better, bet or raise anyway. Bet two pair or top pair only if no one else seems to like his hand. Otherwise, check and call if anyone bets.

• If you think more than four other players will call before the flop, you can play an ace and another card of the same suit. But don't play hands with just one big card, like K-5 or Q-7, even if you see lots of other players win with them.

Now, here's the stud version:

• On third street, raise with all pairs of queens or better, and call with jacks and tens if they're completely live (are not visible in other players' hands), and smaller pairs only if the pair is buried (completely hidden) and live. Also, play any three cards of the same suit. Once every half-hour, you may play a hand with just three big cards, like A-K-J.

• On fourth street, call a bet only if your buried pair is still live, or you have four cards to a straight or flush. Bet or raise if you have a pair of queens or better.

• On fifth and sixth streets, call with four cards to a flush or four consecutive cards to a straight. Raise with two pair or three of a kind.

• On seventh street, continue to bet any two pair if no one else has raised during the hand. If you didn't make your straight or flush, or improve your single pair, check and fold if anyone bets.

• Keep an eye open for other players' upcards. If someone is showing a hand that can beat yours with just one downcard (for example, four cards of the same suit are showing), don't bet or raise, but call if you think the player might be bluffing.

These ministrategies omit all sorts of important things, like position, how to deal with more complex action, or reading hands. That's why dozens of books (and few plastic cards) have been written on poker strategy. But to our poker novices, those are layers of complexity they can add later. Fortunately, many of their opponents will be making those same mistakes, so it's not liable to be too devastating. For now, these easily encapsulated guidelines may give them the confidence they need to sit down for the first time. This is just a first approximation, and I'm sure I'll want to revise it completely after I've gotten some feedback. But I think it's a good start.

Of course, if we're trying to reassure new players that they can't get hurt too badly, variability is also important, perhaps even more important than expectation. Our slot machine and table game converts probably have a pretty good sense of just how bad it can get when things go wrong. What similar assurances does poker provide?

There are too many ways to slice this question to do it justice right now. But to get a quick and dirty estimate of the worst case, let's assume normally distributed results, an hourly standard deviation of 12.5 big bets, a $2-$4 game, and a typical session of four independent and identically distributed hours. The standard deviation for the session result will be 25 big bets, or $100. A 95 percent confidence interval around our three-bet loss rate would include losses of no more than $248. That's a big loss in a $2-$4 game, but fortunately one that should happen less than 3 percent of the time. The 68 percent confidence interval only gets as bad as $148. Few table games offer such an attractive worst case if you play for four solid hours. And, of course, anyone who doesn't want to risk that much money can just quit early if things go poorly. $40 is certainly a reasonable buy-in for a $2-$4 game, even if it's unlikely to last four full hours. And smaller games are often available.

Loss rate is certainly not the only feature weekend gamblers look for. Players in search of big jackpots would be ill-advised to sit down at a low-limit table (unless a bad-beat jackpot is available). But to potential players jittery about sitting down for the first time, it's nice to be reassured that poker is a relatively low-risk form of gambling, and in the long run is one of the best deals the casino has to offer the recreational player.

Editor's note: Dan Kimberg is the author of Serious Poker, which is available through Card Player.