Ruminations on the Super Bowl

Let me begin by advising you that this is being written just before the start of the NFL playoffs for the 2001 NFL season, which – because of the attacks of Sept. 11 – are beginning in January of 2002. So, please view it from that perspective (or, from whatever perspective you choose, come to think of it).

OK. Since the playoffs haven't yet begun (for me), it offers a chance to get a nice overview of the Super Bowl before the finalists earn their spots and before opinions can be influenced by the specific events and performances in the playoff games themselves. So, here's a chance to step back and get a little perspective on the Super Bowl before the two opponents even make their way into the game.

Weak coaches don't win Super Bowls. We've talked about this after-the-fact phenomenon before. This doesn't mean that strong coaches are immune to Super Bowl losses. Tom Landry, Don Shula, and others have been losers in Super Bowls. Bud Grant lost four! But Vince Lombardi won the only two in which he coached. Chuck Noll won four; Tom Landry, two; Bill Walsh, three; and Joe Gibbs, two. More recently, Jimmy Johnson won two, and Mike Shanahan won two. But John Rauch, Red Miller, Ray Malavasi, Sam Wyche, Dan Reeves (4), Bobby Ross, and Jim Fassel have lost a total of 10, and usually didn't look too good doing it.

Weak defenses rarely win Super Bowls. In championship games in most sports, if you go in with a slow, sloppy, ineffective, or "uncommitted" defense, you rarely come out with the title. Closer Mariano Rivera of the Yankees was virtually unbeatable in the late innings for half a decade until 2001's seventh-game, ninth-inning win by the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Celtics and tough-minded defender Bill Russell were virtually unbeatable in the NBA playoffs. The Miami Hurricanes just won the 2001 national collegiate title after going into the championship game with the stingiest defense (9.4 points per game) in the nation. It happens over and over again.

It's the same for Super Bowls. Pittsburgh's "Steel Curtain" defense "stuffed" most foes. The Bears of the 1986 Super Bowl intimidated virtually every opponent. Most recently, the Baltimore Ravens won the Super Bowl crown after setting a record for the fewest points allowed in a 16-game regular season. The best defense is a great, great weapon. In the big game, teams with a weak defense tend to have their shortcomings exposed repeatedly. The good-offense, marginal-defense John Elway Denver Super Bowl teams of 1987, 1988, and 1990 lost three Super Bowls by a combined score of 136 to 40.

One-shot wonders rarely win Super Bowls. Off the top of my head, for this column, I couldn't think of a team that – in retrospect – won the Super Bowl as an undeserving "Cinderella." That's a bit unfair, as we now know that the biggest upsets in Super Bowl history were scored by the New York Jets (18) over Baltimore in 1969 and by Kansas City (12) over Minnesota in 1970. But history has since shown that those two "old AFL" teams were more underrated by the oddsmakers because of perceived NFL-AFL class differences than they were undeserving.

More recent "Cinderellas" such as Atlanta in 1999, New England in 1997, and San Diego in 1995 lost their Super Bowls by a combined score of 118-66.

The opposite of one-shot wonders is more likely to be the case in Super Bowls, as the majority of them have been won by dynastic-type teams. San Francisco, Dallas, Pittsburgh, Green Bay, and Oakland have claimed 20 of the 35 titles so far. The Redskins, Giants, and Dolphins have won seven others. Seven times, teams have won back-to-back (no team has won three in a row). Obviously, it helps to have been there before. Cinderella hasn't won since the days of Joe Namath and Len Dawson, and those were "Cinderellas" that history has shown had plenty of pulchritude.

Quarterbacks who turn the ball over rarely win Super Bowls. This, of course, is fundamentally obvious in most football games. However, there were many early title games that were dubbed "Blooper Bowls" by the scribes. But, as the Super Bowl has evolved through the years, the team that makes the fewest mistakes usually emerges with the victory (and the cover). Defenders such as Willie Wood and Herb Adderley of Green Bay, Chuck Howley of Dallas, Jake Scott of Miami, Willie Brown, Rod Martin, and Jack Squirek of Oakland, Barry Wilburn of Washington, and James Washington and Larry Brown of Dallas have all burned opposing QBs with memorable interceptions in Super Bowls. Five years ago, Drew Bledsoe of New England tossed four interceptions vs. Green Bay. Three years ago, Chris Chandler had three vs. Denver. Kerry Collins of the Giants threw four last year vs. Baltimore.

When it comes to betting on Super Bowls, the "public" is often right. Favorites are 24-10 straight up in Super Bowls (one was mostly a pick 'em game). Favorites are 20-12-2 vs. the spread, including 6-2-2 the last 10 years. Twenty of the 35 games have been decided by 14 points or more. The betting public, more often than not in recent years, has successfully ridden the wave of what it thought was the better-looking team, unaware or uncaring if the pointspread on the game didn't fit the power-rating systems of most professional handicappers.

Chuck Sippl is the senior editor of The Gold Sheet, the "bible" for sports bettors since 1957. To get more handicapping advice, forecasts, power ratings, and angles on both football and basketball, subscribe to The Gold Sheet, or pick one up at your local newsstand. If you haven't seen The Gold Sheet and would like to review a complimentary copy, call (800) 798-GOLD (4653) and say you read about it in Card Player. You can check the web at www.goldsheet.com.