Random Thoughts

Hi. Come on in. I've made oatmeal-raisin cookies and unfiltered apple juice. The cookies are still warm and the juice is cold.

I have a bunch of random thoughts about seven-card stud to talk about today.

Random thought: Given that poker is a game involving mathematical probabilities, we would do well to learn something about this subject.

Do you know the odds against making a flush in seven-card stud if three of your first four cards are suited? 8.5-to-1. What if three of your first five cards are suited? 23-to-1. And if your first four cards are suited? 1.25-to-1. There are books containing information on odds and probabilities. Get one.

Random thought (sort of): Do you know the difference between odds and probabilities? Odds are the chances, expressed in a ratio, against something occurring. A probability is an expression of the chances (expressed as a percentage) for something to occur. The odds against making a flush when you start with four suited cards are 1.12-to-1. The probability of making the flush is 47.2 percent.

Random thought (sort of): So what? Here's so what: If the hand you are drawing to is an 8.5-to-1 shot and the pot is offering you odds of only 4-to-1, that's not a good bet.

Random thought: This is also one of Roy's Rules. Learn to ask the proper questions. Quite often I will be asked a question such as, "If I have three fives in seven-card stud, should I raise?" Before I could answer that question, I'd need more information – and so should you.

How many players are in the pot? How many can still come in? How much money is in the pot? What will it cost me to raise? How will that affect the pot odds? What am I trying to accomplish with the raise? What is likely to be the result? What cards are the other players showing? Have their needed cards been exposed in other hands? How has the betting gone up to this point? What is my position relative to the high showing hand and to the other hands? What action have I taken previously in this situation? Do I want to win the pot now or do I want to keep players in to build a bigger pot? If I don't improve, will my three fives win the pot?

Random thought: Anticipate your next move. This means that you have to be asking yourself questions in advance. For example, if you are in late position, don't wait until the action gets to you before figuring out what you're going to do. Anticipate the possibilities. What cards are your opponents likely to be playing? If the high hand showing four to a flush checks and the next player showing four to a straight bets, should you raise with your already made flush, which will probably drive out what looks like a straight draw behind you? If the first player bets the four to a flush and the four to a straight raises, will you call, reraise, or fold? Will your flush hold up? If, if, if – what are the possibilities?

Random thought: Many stud players don't concern themselves with position. They reason that hold'em and draw are games of position because their position remains fixed throughout a hand. In stud, your position can change with each round of cards within a hand. Therefore, there is nothing that can be done about it, right? Wrong! The fact that your position can change from one round of cards to the next in no way negates the importance of that position. You must be flexible enough to change your play in accordance with your change of position. This is an added "burden" to the stud player, but one that must be dealt with if you are to be successful.

Random thought: Beginning with a small pair in seven-card stud puts you in a weak position. If you insist on playing a small pair, I insist that your third card be higher than the upcards of your opponents. That way, if you make two pair on fourth street, you at least have a fighting chance.

Now I tire and require repose. Put some cookies in your pocket and kill the light on your way out.

Editor's note: Roy West, author of the best-seller 7 Card Stud, the Complete Course in Winning, available from Card Player, continues to give his successful poker lessons in Las Vegas to both tourists and locals. Ladies are welcome. Get his toll-free 800 number from his ad on Page 99.