Those Small Changes

As you gain more experience at something, you become more discriminating. A small change can have a big effect on a decision, so you learn to notice things that did not appear meaningful when first encountered. If the sides of the scales are close in weight, a little pebble can cause the balance beam to tilt in one direction. Furthermore, some of those "pebbles" look more like rocks to the eye of an experienced player. Let's see how this idea of viewing with a trained eye applies to a number of poker situations. We will look at "small" changes that can reverse a decision by 180 degrees.

Suppose your hand is Q J and you get a flop of A 9 5. You are in late position, someone bets, and another player raises. You have a queen-high flush draw. What should you do? In my opinion, you should get out. The feature of this hand that I find most upsetting is that the ace on the board is not of your flush suit. First, this demotes you to the third-nut flush draw. Second, it increases your chance of getting pinned under the nut flush, since nearly everyone plays the ace-high starting hand that builds the nut-flush draw with this flop. There is a good chance that one of the players has either a strong ace or aces up (the best hand), and the other has top pair with the nut draw.

If you change the board around and make the ace a heart and the 9 or the 5 a club, it is a close decision whether to compete. The "small change" is actually a big one that may well reverse your decision to play or fold.

Here is another situation in which two hands look quite similar, but the difference is big enough to change your decision. You hold A-K, someone opens with a raise, and a player cold-calls. You elect to call, the big blind comes, and four of you see the flop. The big blind checks, the preflop raiser bets, and the next player calls. What should you do on each of the following flops?

For a flop of 10 8 4, a call is a reasonable play. You have only one player behind you, and the fact that the pot has been raised preflop means you are getting reasonable enough pot odds to play. An ace or king may win for your hand.

Now, let's change the flop to 10 9 4. There is only a one pip difference (the 8 has become a 9), but the difference is enough to change a call into a fold. The reason this "small" change is a big one is one of the two ranks of cards that you hope to hit, the king, is now tainted, because a king creates a possible straight on the board. Someone could have a Q-J and take you to the cleaners when you improve. With this flop, you have an automatic fold.

There are other areas besides the flop where we can make a "small" change and arrive at a different decision. Look at this situation: You are in the small blind in a $30-$60 hold'em game and pick up the 10 7. A player limps in from middle position and everyone else folds around to you. Should you call or fold?

What was your answer? Well, you'd better take it back. You do not have enough information yet to answer the question! There are two possible blind structures for $30-$60 hold'em. The older structure is with a mix of chips that includes a $5 denomination. The blinds are $15 and $30 in that structure. The modern idea is to use all $10 chips to speed up the game (no change-making is needed), so the small blind cannot be half the big blind anymore. The structure is a $20 small blind instead of a $15 small blind. This "small" change is enough to change a fold in the old structure to a call in the new one. It costs only $10 more to see the flop. Just being in the arena with only two other players is worth a little something, especially if you know how to play hold'em with competence.

On our next hand, we also have to find out more about the environment before making our decision. You are under the gun in a ninehanded game and pick up A-Q offsuit. You open with a raise (I sometimes call with this hand to vary my play) and the player on your immediate left reraises. It is unpleasant to be three-bet with such a borderline holding, where there is a strong threat of being dominated, but before you can dwell on your ill luck, the button pops it again. What should you do when the betting gets back to you? (We understand that there is a big difference whether you are getting popped by maniacs or rocks, but let's assume you are facing neither.)

The key question here is whether the button's raise has capped the betting or not. If you are in a place like the Bellagio cardroom in Las Vegas, a bet and four raises is allowed. This spells double trouble for your fragile A-Q. The three-bettor may cap the betting, costing you even more to see the flop. Even more important is the fact that the button will seldom strain to four-bet with a hand of marginal quality when he is exposed to a reraise. If you are playing with a three-raise limit, the cap is sometimes applied with hands of lesser quality, especially by the button. I think you should play your A-Q if the betting has been capped and fold if it has not.

As you can see, there are two points made in my column. First, what looks like a "small" change in a poker situation to the inexperienced player may assume a lot more importance to a veteran. Second, you must know the poker rules of the cardroom or the betting structure of the game before accurately answering certain types of questions.

Editor's note: Bob Ciaffone's new book, Middle Limit Holdem Poker, co-authored with Jim Brier, is available now ($25 plus $5 shipping and handling, 332 pages). This work and his other poker books, Pot-limit and No-limit Poker, Improve Your Poker, and Omaha Hold'em Poker, can be ordered through Card Player. Ciaffone is available for poker lessons. E-mail [email protected] or call (989) 792-0884. His website is www.diamondcs.net/~thecoach, where you can download Robert's Rules of Poker for free.