NBA Playoffs: What the Heck's Going on Out There?

Last year's NBA playoffs saw a reversal of form in two areas that have become popular with sports bettors over the years.

The Zig Zag Theory in the 2001 playoffs turned out to be a money-loser for the first time in several years. And, in "totals" action, the "overs" defeated the "unders." Those who follow playoff basketball carefully took note of those reversals of recent form.

The Zig Zag Theory is one of the most obvious for NBA handicappers. You simply wait for the first game of a playoff series to be completed and then go with the loser of that game, and each ensuing losing team, throughout the rest of the series.

The rationale is obvious. The loser of the first game will play very hard to avoid falling to a very-tough-to-overcome 0-2 deficit. And there's usually a psychological tendency for the winner of the game to let up a little bit, relaxing somewhat after a hard-fought victory. It's also the case that the coaching staff of the losing team is more likely to make adjustments than the staff of the team that won the previous game.

In recent years, the Zig Zag Theory has been a very consistent pointspread winner, going 149-124-4 vs. the spread over the last five years (with no losing seasons), and 531-416-16 vs. the spread over the last 17 years. That will get the job done from a sports betting persepective.

Last year, however, the Zig Zag concept was only 23-31-1 vs. the spread. As a close observer of the playoffs, I have two thoughts on how things turned out that way. First, the oddsmakers long ago became aware of the trend, and last year they "adjusted" their lines a little more than usual in an attempt to neutralize the action they knew they would get from the Zig Zag bettors.

Second, we have the more erratic and fragile psyches of the multimillionaire players these days. In decades past, the players made less money, but they were more stubborn and hard-nosed. Big defeats, late losses, or the possibility of being swept made them "raise their backs" and fight like the dickens, even when the eventual result might have been fairly obvious.

That's not so these days, with customized charter jets, gourmet catered meals, four-star hotels, cell phones in both hands, and their agent/lackeys. It takes very self-motivated players and fiery, competitive coaches to prevent teams from submitting once they feel they're outclassed. For example, after their first loss to the Lakers last year, L.A.'s foes were a sad 0-10-1 vs. the spread (Portland 0-2, Sacramento 0-2-1, San Antonio 0-3, and Philadelphia 0-3). Mind you, I'm not accusing those teams of quitting, but of not doing everything they could to rally.

The second area of form-reversal concern to sports bettors was the triumph of the overs vs. the unders. Generally speaking, over the course of the playoffs, the unders eventually tend to get the upper hand, as players become extra familiar with their opponents and adjust in an effort to take away what their foes like to do most. And, as the games become increasingly crucial, referees have a tendency to "let the players play," especially in "crunch time," generally producing tighter defense, more-physical action, often fewer fouls, and lots of field-goal attempts late in the shot clock.

Over the past few years, oddsmakers have generally lowered the posted totals on games as the playoffs have progressed, to the point where numbers in the 170s and 160s have not been uncommon. Back when the Pistons were champs, I swear I wouldn't have been surprised by totals in the 140s!

But Detroit's "Bad Boys" are, thankfully, long gone, and the recent results look like this. Last year, the overs outdid the unders 37-34. But for the previous five years, the unders led 188-153-9, a margin of 35 games.

With the playoffs recently under way, it certainly appears worthwhile to monitor both the Zig Zag and over-under results as the playoffs progress. Among other things, there are rules changes this year officially allowing zone defenses. And there have been several new interpretations enacted this year instructing officials on how to call certain on-court situations, with most of the changes favoring offensive players (the big mucky-mucks of the NBA took a cue from "home run derby" in baseball and realized that bright offense sells more tickets and TV commercials than does stifling defense).

I'll be looking under if zone defenses help slow the pace of playoff games this year. But if the "Under Era" turns out to be a thing of the past and the new rules help the offenses, I'll just as willingly take the over, especially with the volatile, high-variance, offensive-style teams.

Sports fans, for the first word in handicapping, check out The Gold Sheet. Our NBA playoff issue is now on the newsstands. We offer key statistics, analysis, insider reports, and our widely followed power ratings. If you haven't seen The Gold Sheet and would like to receive a complimentary sample copy with no obligation, call (800) 798-GOLD (4653) and tell us you read about us in Card Player. You can look us up on the web at www.goldsheet.com.