Duplication

One interesting but annoying situation in Omaha high-low occurs when you are holding a nice low-oriented hand, but there are several preflop raises in front of you by players who usually are tight. How valuable are your low cards if several other players are looking at the same low cards? What if only one other player seems to have the same cards as you?

While playing $10-$20 Omaha high-low, you finally pick up a hand containing an A-2 – but without another prime low card (a 3, 4, or 5). For example, let's say you pick up an A-2-7-J of four different suits. The tight player to your right, who usually plays only very good hands, raises before the flop – for only the second time in two hours. His previous raise was with an A-2-3 holding. What do you think of your hand?

We all agree that an A-2 is the best two-card holding in Omaha high-low (with the exception of aces in certain tight games), and that any hand with an A-2 is usually playable (it figures to show a profit in the long run). But if another player also has an A-2 and a better overall hand than you (for example, he has another prime low card), even if your A-2 makes the nut low, you will probably be playing for a quarter of the pot!

Note that if you knew for sure that your opponent duplicated your A-2, you would have a clear fold with a "lesser" A-2 hand (such as A-2-7-J unsuited), because you figure to lose money if you play it. And, surely, you should not reraise with it, as some do.

If you run a computer simulation (for example, with Mike Caro's "Poker Probe") with four players, in which one hand is A-2-7-J unsuited, the second hand has an A-2-4 and a random fourth card, and the other two hands are random, the A-2-4 hand wins about 29 percent of the time (25 percent is average), each of the two random hands wins slightly less than 25 percent of the time, and the "lesser" A-2 hand (A-2-7-J) wins only about 21 percent of the time.

Extending that simulation to six players (with four random hands) and eight players (with six random hands) really demonstrates the value of having another prime low card in addition to the A-2. With six players, the A-2-4 hand wins about 23 percent of the time (16.7 percent is average), each of the four random hands wins about 15.5 percent of the time, and the A-2-7-J hand wins only 14.3 percent of the time. With eight players, the A-2-4 hand wins more than 19 percent of the time (12.5 percent is average), each of the six random hands wins 11.3 percent of the time, and the A-2-7-J hand wins 11.5 percent of the time.

Although the above simulations are by no means conclusive, I believe they do tend to show that when more than one hand contains an A-2, the winning potential of that holding is seriously reduced. Also, the simulations clearly show the great value of holding an additional prime low card.

So, it all boils down to just how likely it is that the preflop raiser is duplicating your A-2. Many very tight players raise before the flop with only an A-2-3 or A-2-4 holding, or perhaps pocket aces plus. It would really help if you had noticed how the raiser had played pocket aces previously. For example, if he had played several pocket-aces holdings by merely calling before the flop, the chances of his holding an A-2 would be significantly higher.

Of course, an A-2 hand might well be profitable, especially with lots of players, if the other two cards have much better than average high potential, and/or the ace is "suited" (one of the other three cards is the same suit as the ace).

I realize that it's very disappointing, after you have been patiently waiting for a nice hand, to finally catch an A-2 that you should reluctantly throw away. But my own personal experience is that I have made that fold with a not-so-hot A-2 holding after a tight player's preflop raise about a dozen times in the last few years, and I have saved money every time.