The 'Favorites' League

No, with the title of this column I am not referring to your favorite league. You can decide that on your own.

I'm referring to baseball wagering – specifically, the general difference in results between the National League and the American League. When analyzing baseball, it usually is not a good idea to blend the results of the two leagues into one statistical pot. Here's why.

There is often a pronounced difference in overall results when comparing the two leagues. For example, let's examine some differences for the games from the start of the 2002 season through May 20.

In the National League, when the home team has been favored, it has won 59.1 percent of the time (133 times out of 225). In the American League, when the home team has been favored, it has won 63.8 percent of the time (104 of 163).

In the National League, when the home team has been the underdog, it has won 51.1 percent of the time (47 of 92, for a total win of 11.9 betting units). In the American League, home underdogs have won only 40.0 percent of the time (46 of 115), meaning A.L. road favorites have won 60 percent of the time. American League home underdogs have lost 6.5 betting units (which is quite a contrast to the N.L.'s +11.9).

To illustrate the difference even more dramatically, let's take a look at all of the big favorites (for purposes of this illustration, "big" favorites involve games in which the price on the favorite is more than -150; in other words, games in which you must lay more than 3-to-2 in order to take the favorite). A baseball team that can win three out of every five games would finish with an excellent record of 97-65.

"Big" favorites in the National League are 66-39 (62.9 percent). But, if you laid the actual price on each game, you'd be minus 4.25 betting units. "Big" favorites in the American League, in contrast, have flourished, going 83-27 (75.5 percent). If you took each A.L. "big" favorite, laying the price on each game of -150 or more, you'd be +31.9 betting units (again, quite a contrast to the National League).

Summing up, home favorites win more often in the American League than in the National; road favorites win more often in the American League; and "big" favorites of more than -150 win substantially more often in the American than in the National. Thus, the American League is much more the "favorites" league.

There are three obvious reasons in my mind for this dramatic difference in the performance of favorites in the two leagues.

First, the A.L. has the designated hitter rule. That means that a good American League pitcher who is pitching well is likely to stay in the game until he starts losing his effectiveness or his team (if it has a lead) turns the game over to its specialized closer.

In the National League, this is not always the case. A National Leaguer can be pitching an excellent game, but if his team is trailing 1-0 or 2-1 in the late going, even the ace of the staff faces the prospect of being lifted for a pinch hitter in many situations. Also, because they have to bat, National League pitchers sometimes have to run the bases. Thus, there is a chance they might have to spend a lot of time on the basepaths in a game, increasing the likelihood of facing an early "hook" later on at the first sign of trouble, or they might get pulled for a speedier, more experienced pinch runner at key junctures. Either way, it's tougher for National League pitchers to hang around in comparison to their A.L. counterparts, sometimes even if they're pitching just as well.

Second, there has generally been better balance in the National League than in the American League, with fewer continually dominating teams in the N.L., and less of a drop-off from the upper-echelon teams to the lower-echelon teams. Teams such as the Marlins and Padres have been to the World Series more recently than the Cardinals, Dodgers, or Giants. That's not so in recent years in the American League, where the drop-off between the contenders and also-rans has been much more pronounced.

Third, the return of the major leagues to the "unbalanced" schedule (last year) has meant more opportunities in the American League for the dominators to dominate the weaklings. (Unbalanced schedules yield six series per year against teams in one's own division and only two per year vs. those in other divisions.) The unbalanced schedules mean top pitchers such as Roger Clemens, who won the A.L. Cy Young Award again last year at the age of 39 with a 20-3 record, have more chances to scarf up on the offensively challenged Tampa Bays and Baltimores of the world.

As always, if you're serious about baseball, you'll continue to monitor these contrasting league trends for the rest of the season. But, if you're just an occasional bettor, you'll usually find much more success with the home dogs and big dogs in the National League, and with the road favorites and big favorites in the American League, by comparison.

Chuck Sippl is the senior editor of The Gold Sheet, the first word in handicapping for 46 years. The Gold Sheet's popular football preview issue will be on newsstands in late June, covering the NFL and college football, previewing preseason play, and providing inside reports, statistical breakdowns, logs, and upcoming schedules. For more information, call The Gold Sheet at (800) 798-GOLD (4653) and be sure to say that you read about it in Card Player. You can look up The Gold Sheet on the web at www.goldsheet.com.