More About Betting Patterns

The March 14, 2003, issue of Card Player contained a column I wrote entitled "Betting Patterns," in which I posed this question: Are there identifiable betting patterns that you can spot in a poker game, and can you use this knowledge to gain an edge on the opposition as well as improve your own game? That column examined a number of predictable and exploitable betting patterns that you'll see your opponents exhibit in most hold'em games.

That particular column generated more e-mail than any single column I'd ever written for this magazine, so it must have struck a responsive chord. I closed that piece with a wish that the column would serve as food for thought, particularly for players who may not have done much about identifying and cataloging betting patterns, and that I'd have more to say on the topic in a subsequent issue.

If you examine your own play, as well as that of your opponents, one pattern of particular interest is how often you or your opponent calls a bet on the river. Calling too frequently, only to find that the call was made with a losing hand, cries out for some corrective action if you're the one calling and losing most of the time. On the other hand, if your opponent is calling and losing most of the time, you can profitably increase your betting propensity on the river.

Now, before we go any further, let me state with complete certainty that you do not want to be the player who never calls with a losing hand on the river. If you win each and every time you call a bet on the river, you're surely folding some hands that would have won the pot, and whenever you fold a hand that would have won the pot, that's a major loss: The cost is the entire pot. On the other hand, you don't want to be the guy who wins every bet he makes on the river, either. If that's the case, it probably means you are checking too many hands that you might have bet for value. Obviously, in a game of incomplete information, it's usually necessary to make an occasional error in judgment at both ends of the spectrum to avoid those catastrophic mistakes that occur far more frequently in the vast middle ground.

Calling a bet on the river and losing too frequently is also disastrous. An opponent who calls on the river and loses too often is probably making weak calls on earlier betting rounds, also. If you mentally catalog the hands he shows down at the river, you can easily determine if he's playing weak starters in addition to making weak calls. Don't be surprised if you discover this pattern; they usually go hand-in-glove.

Here's a hand from a recent $20-$40 hold'em game that illustrates what happens once you've learned that certain players call with hands that invariably lose on the river.

I received a free play in the big blind with J-8. One player had limped in from middle position and the small blind had called for half a bet. A rainbow flop of J-7-3 gave me top pair, albeit with a very marginal kicker, but I bet to test the waters and was disappointed to be called by both opponents. I checked the turn behind the small blind when a 7 fell and paired the board. I was certain the small blind would come out betting had he made trips, since he seldom tried for a check-raise unless he was in a family pot, had the nuts or close to it, and knew he'd attract a bet to his left and be able to trap a bunch of callers for two bets. That wasn't the case here. If the limper had trips, he surely would have bet the turn, since he would have known he had the best of it by far at that juncture. But the limper checked behind me, and we saw the river bring a deuce, with no flush possible.

The small blind checked. I had the choice of betting or checking with the intention of calling if the limper decided to bet. Although my kicker was weak, I chose to bet. I put the small blind on either a pair of treys or a jack with a worse kicker than mine, and I knew, based on the patterns I had observed in the limper, that he probably had a jack with a weaker kicker than I had, or else he was holding something like A-3 suited. The limper called, ultimately showing me J-4 suited, and the small blind threw his hand away.

I gathered in a pot that contained an additional bet that I would not have garnered had I not realized that my opponent called far too frequently with hands that did not stand up on the river. While that's not as dramatic as winning a million dollar pot in the World Series of Poker, a bet is a bet – they all add up at the end of the day, believe me – and if you average winning one big bet per hour in a poker game, that additional bet you grab simply by paying attention to your opponents' betting patterns is golden.

You can make money just by learning about this betting pattern alone: How often does my opponent call the river with a losing hand? If someone calls the river frequently when beaten, you can get what amounts to be a free bet – or one that's close to free – much of the time. While you will lose every now and then because your opponent had a stronger hand than usual – perhaps it was one that just dipped slightly below his betting threshold – or you lowered your betting bar just a tad too low, most of the time you'll win that additional bet.

The object lesson is simple: Don't forget to bet when you figure to win if you're called. Leaving money on the table by not betting is a costly idea in the long run. Remember, most players raise with big hands on the turn, not the river. So, unless an innocuous-looking river card hits your opponent's kicker, or straightens or flushes him – and clues abound for those hands – or your adversary was calling with a pocket pair only to make a miracle set on the river when his prayers were answered, that last card will usually be benign.

If you can combine your analysis of betting patterns with an ability to read your opponents during the heat of battle, you'll find that you're seldom wrong about your decisions to bet or check the river. There's money to be made at the end of a hand, so take it easy, but take it.

Visit my web site at www.loukrieger.com. Poker for Dummies and my newest book, Gambling for Dummies, are available at major bookstores everywhere, and all of my books are available online at www.ConJelCo.com and www.Amazon.com.