Impact of the NFL Draft

A couple of weeks ago, we experienced another episode of what has become the unexpected phenomenon of the NFL – its annual college player draft.

Studying for, predicting, following, and analyzing the NFL draft has become much more than a cottage industry in the sports media today. Specialized publications such as those of Mel Kiper Jr., Ourlad's, Pro Football Weekly (with many articles written by the late Joe Buchsbaum), The Sporting News, and so on have become increasingly familiar to sports fans. The would-be NFL scouts who own/work for those publications have become ubiquitous guests on national and local radio sports-talk shows for weeks and weeks leading up to and following the draft itself. Internet sports websites are full of their own forecasts and articles. And the major newspapers have devoted increasing pre and post-draft coverage.

Putting it all over the top, of course, is ESPN's hyping and coverage of the draft itself, first putting its cameras in NFL draft headquarters for the initial rounds years ago while looking for more "product." Bingo! Years later, ESPN (with help from spin-off ESPN2) now provides two-day coverage of every round, complete with interviews from players, coaches, execs, league officials, and its various "insiders." Still, that's almost not enough to sate the superfans of each pro team, many of whom gobble up articles by the various experts who grade each team's draft despite never having seen some of the players perform or knowing the future intentions the teams actually have with their players. It can be a little bit of overkill.

But, hey, it's all harmless, fun stuff. It's become the "hot stove league" for the NFL, which passed baseball as the "king" of American sports long ago. And the NFL absolutely loves all the coverage, speculation, and attention. Similar-style coverage of college football recruiting has been gaining increasing momentum every year. Football fans love to hope and dream.

It's because of the growing publicity the NFL draft is getting these days (and the ensuing inquiries that come my way) that I decided to write this piece.

Those who follow the NFL closely know that the draft is still the lifeblood of an NFL team. "Hit" with several excellent choices a few years in a row and a team can build a solid young nucleus that will enable it to contend for several years. "Miss" with top picks a few years running and a team will have to scramble to fill the gaps with marginal veterans. How do you think the Packers feel about taking Tony Mandarich instead of Barry Sanders? Or, all the teams that "passed" on Joe Montana or Dan Marino?

However, most serious handicappers of pro football know that despite the growing fascination with the NFL draft, its influence on the analysis of early games is relatively much smaller. All of those much-hyped players must still be signed to contracts. (Many team execs have told us that the worst thing they have to do in their jobs is deal with player agents. In fact, some teams will actually pass on a player they really like because of his agent.) If the draftees miss minicamp, that is bad. Missing training camp is doubly bad. Missing exhibition games is triply bad! And missing regular-season games due to contract problems is doubly-triply bad, often resulting in a "wasted" season for that player (so much for all the hoopla and anticipation).

Moreover, due to lack of depth and team planning, many highly paid youngsters are "forced" into starting lineups too early, resulting in team breakdowns and inconsistency. Then, there is the group of rookie draftees who turn out to have been impressive "workout warriors" for the draft scouts, but actually have little feel, taste, or dedication for the pro game once the real competition begins with the hardened veterans of the NFL. The word "busts" comes to mind.

The first-round pick who actually lives up to or exceeds the hype in his first year is more the exception than the general rule. It takes a while for most of the just-out-of-college guys to digest the huge pro playbook, build themselves up physically, and absorb the nuances of the pro game before they can make a successful impact Sunday after Sunday. See the recent rookie seasons of Peyton Manning (3-13, 28 interceptions in '98) and Kansas City defensive-tackle Ryan Sims last year as just a couple of varied examples of struggles. Then, you have the LaDainian Tomlinsons of '01 and Jeremy Shockeys of '02 as exceptions.

For the handicapper, the rule remains the same: Regardless of all the hype and the buildup, until a player actually excels under fire, on the field of play, it's best to regard his potential with a large degree of hearty skepticism. Also, it's wise to always be on the lookout for the hard-trying, overachieving types who can blend together to give a team lots of pointspread value before the oddsmakers and public catch on.

Chuck Sippl is the senior editor of The Gold Sheet, the first word in sports handicapping for 46 years. The amazingly compact Gold Sheet features analysis of every football and basketball game, exclusive insider reports, widely followed Power Ratings, and a Special Ticker of key injuries and team chemistry. If you have never seen The Gold Sheet and would like to peruse a complimentary sample copy, or would like information on its Late Telephone Service, call The Gold Sheet at (800) 798-GOLD (4653) and mention that you read about it in Card Player. You can look up The Gold Sheet on the web at www.goldsheet.com.