El Supremo

What is the best four-card starting hand in Omaha high?

For many years, I have been receiving occasional correspondence suggesting that A-K-A-K double-suited is not the best hand in Omaha high (as I have stated in my books). Some people seem to think that A-J-A-10 double-suited might be better. While A-J-A-10 is a very fine hand, and might even play better than A-K-A-K in some tight-game situations, most expert Omaha high players agree that A-K-A-K is better – simply because the pocket kings flop a set approximately one time in eight and have more big-win potential than any straight holding. Indeed, pocket kings are a high-quality holding.

But even when putting the above "quality" reason aside, the A-K-A-K actually wins more hands on pure power than does the A-J-A-10 (although it seems that some of my correspondents allege differently). While the following numbers are meaningful mainly as a relative comparison of general strength, it is interesting to note that the A-K-A-K scores better than the A-J-A-10 in every case.

All of the following simulations were made using Mike Caro's Poker Probe. Against one random opponent, A-K-A-K wins very slightly more than A-J-A-10 (70.7 percent to 70.6 percent). Against three random opponents, the A-K-A-K wins about 1.75 percentage points more than A-J-A-10 (45.30 percent to 43.55 percent). Against five random opponents, the A-K-A-K wins about 2.75 percentage points more than A-J-A-10 (34.94 percent to 32.2 percent).

If a ranking list of Omaha high starting hands were computed based on the sum of those three simulations (that is, each Omaha hand would be simulated against one, three, and five random opponents), there is little doubt that A-K-A-K double-suited would be at the top of the list.

And if one of the A-J-A-10 advocates would like to bet you on the results of the two hands heads up against each other, by all means take the action, as it would be a better bet for you than the house's odds in any casino game (A-K-A-K wins almost 6 percentage points more often, about 53 percent to 47 percent).

Those who advocate that the A-J-A-10 doubled-suited is better usually argue that it will have more playable flops. But, playing more flops, even if you are a great tactical player, does not necessarily mean you will win more money. Although J-10 is the best two-card straight couple, all straight holdings are very fragile in Omaha. You will win less money and lose more often when playing straight cards than you will when playing high-quality holdings such as pocket kings.

When you make kings full in Omaha high, you will usually win the pot, and there are only a few last cards to worry about. In tight-aggressive high-stakes pot-limit (or no-limit) Omaha, if you happen to make the nut straight on the flop or turn, betting the pot or going all in will usually take the pot then and there. But in loose limit Omaha high games, when you make a straight on the flop or turn, you'd better cross your fingers and hope that the next card doesn't put three cards of one suit on the board or pair the board. It is almost routine for a straight to lose to a flush or full boat on the river. How often does that happen?

In loose Omaha high games, when you make a straight on the flop and there are several callers, if those callers include a flush draw and a set (looking for a pair on board to make a full house), you will win the pot only about one time in three. And that can be expensive. For example, if your A-J-A-10 hits a 9-8-7 flop containing two cards of a suit that you don't have, you will win that pot only about one time in three if there is a flush draw and a set drawing against you. A player drawing with Q-J-9-9 suited will win the pot twice as often as you will. That old Omaha adage, "For every straight that holds up, two go down in flames," is at least somewhat true.

When your set of kings does not fill, you will often win the pot anyway with just the set. But if your straight draw doesn't make it, you will usually lose. Thus, the main "quality" argument here is that while you will be involved in more flops with the A-J-A-10, you will actually win a much smaller percentage of those straight-oriented after-the-flop involvements than you will with the pocket kings involvements. Winning more and losing less is what quality is all about.

I'm sure that most big-money players would agree that, generally, they would rather be playing pocket kings with a king in the flop than most nut-straight holdings. And because the pocket kings are better hidden, they are more likely to get paid off than a more obvious nut straight. Big pots are often won with big full boats.