More About Online Poker

New technologies introduced to the world have followed a recurring pattern, probably as far back as the invention of fire, the wheel, and the calendar. This pattern definitely applies to the Industrial Revolution and IT Revolution technologies, from the steam engine, airplanes, and railroads to the personal computer, microengineering, and the cell phone.

First, new technologies allow people to do the same things that have always been done in their societies, but in new ways. This establishes the value of the technology and entrenches the technology in the society. Then, a second phase begins, which magnifies the impact of technologies exponentially: The new technology is used to do new things altogether, things not anticipated, often the result of a serendipitous process. At first, computers were mere number-crunching, data-manipulation devices. Who could have imagined that the earliest PC technology could lead to Google, iPods, Mapquest, satellite radio, on-demand manufacturing, and eBay?

And so it is with online poker. Way back in the late '90s, when Randy Blumer founded the first real-money Internet cardroom at www.Planetpoker.com, the idea was simple: play poker as it had always been played, but instead of bringing players together in a brick-and-mortar casino, allow them to gather from all over the world at an electronic table. This was an evolution from how the new technologies had been used to do an old thing differently. Computer technology made conferencing possible in a new way. Chat rooms made it possible for people to assemble and converse in a new way. These evolved into massive multiplayer online games (among other things), where people gathered to compete by using the new technologies. And, eventually, we had online poker.

In my 30-plus years around the poker scene, I have never seen poker as lucrative as it is now! It is obvious to all that Internet games together with TV coverage have grown the game of poker hugely in the last several years. Now, while the game is flush with cash, is a good time to examine the whys and wherefores, and the implications for the future of the game.

More money is flowing into the poker economy than ever before. Many new Internet players lack poker experience and subsequently have made online poker games very lively. Weak professional players who previously had struggled to stay in action often find themselves the most knowledgeable and most experienced players at their tables. Young players who grew up in the video game generation have taken to Internet poker games in force. Learning poker is the easiest it has ever been. Many more good books have become available. The advent of hand histories, in-game note-taking, and tracking programs on Internet poker allow players to review and learn from their play and the play of their opponents, as well as track their adversaries more accurately.

A big factor in the game's growth is the added excitement due to the increased number of hands a player can play on the Internet, both because the Internet game gets out more hands per hour and because players can sit in multiple games. I have played almost 60,000 hours of poker in my life, and I know players currently in their 20s who have played more hands of poker than I have! When I go to live cardrooms these days, I am constantly running into young players with great play knowledge whom I have never seen before in my life. During my first 25 years in poker, that was quite a rare occurrence.

Already, the online poker room concept has grown way beyond Blumer's initial vision, completely reinventing and reinvigorating the world of tournament poker, with tens of thousands of satellites and supersatellites pouring many millions of dollars in new money into the tournament world. We have moved beyond doing an old thing in a new way to doing new things. The millions of online players grew the poker market to the point where it could support broadcast poker as a sporting event, which in turn increased the market for Internet poker in an incredibly synergistic, positive feedback cycle. An issue I shall address at more length another time is the extent to which live ring games, tournaments, the online game, poker as a competitive sport, and television are developing an interdependent relationship, with the well-being of each contributing to the growth of the others.

Millions of people, perhaps tens of millions of people, in jurisdictions around the country and around the globe who did not have access to poker now pour hundreds of millions of new dollars into the game, money which went elsewhere in our national and global economies before the introduction of the online game. One of the often-ignored consequences of that is the diversion of that money from the places it would have otherwise gone, generally (although by no means exclusively) to other leisure activities. This creates a bloc of business interests that perceives online gaming generally and online poker particularly as threats they wish to shut down. One issue that the industry will eventually have to resolve is the extent to which Internet poker and online gambling compete for the same money, and have different goals in terms of government regulation.

The evolution of online poker is by no means complete. New software products hit the market with regularity, and more are in the development stage. Hardware will change, too. In the future, we will be playing poker for real money from handheld computers that we carry with us, multifunctional wireless things using Bluetooth or some succeeding technology to integrate PDAs, phones, ever-more-portable devices with ever-more-potent capabilities. It will not be too long before some intrepid software designer incorporates webcam and videoconferencing technologies into the online game. There will be changes beyond our imaginations as creative people find not only new ways to do the old things of poker, but new things that can be done.

Some fundamentals of poker, however, remain constant. Among them are the basic principles of the poker economy, which, although magnified by the influx of people and dollars, remain quite real. Over time, skill will prevail over luck. There will be far more losers than winners. The rake will continue to take money out of the game, as will people who take their winnings out of the poker economy to make their rent, mortgage, and car payments. To prosper at any given level, the game requires a continuing influx of fresh money to compensate for the money that is removed from the poker economy and to replace players who leave the game for any of a variety of reasons. The longer the live money lasts, the less immediate the need to replace it with new fresh money.

While the extent of the current poker explosion is unprecedented, we have seen the same principle in the poker world before. We saw it when the California Cardroom Association succeeded in its fight to open up hold'em poker in California in the late '80s. We saw it when poker developed in Connecticut, Atlantic City, and Mississippi in the early '90s. We saw it as the World Series of Poker and then the (now-defunct) Amarillo Slim Super Bowl of Poker created from nothing the world of tournament poker. In each of these historical antecedents, poker boomed, then peaked, and then eventually slipped back some to a new plateau. It wasn't too long ago that casinos across the country in general and Vegas particularly were replacing their poker rooms with slots and keno.

Each of these instances followed the same cycle: The game expanded, more players came to the game, winners and the house took money out of the game, bad and inexperienced players lost their money and eventually quit the game, and the game shrank back some. Then, the cycle began again from a new, higher place.

There were, of course, external influences, as well, including the flow of drug money into the game in the '80s, the huge run-up in America's net worth in the '90s, and the recessionary impact of Sept. 11. While poker can and does affect its own growth, it does not exist in a vacuum. Certainly, one external impact the industry will have to deal with in the near future is government regulation on the local, state, and federal level. Another will be the opening up of the game in Asia generally and China particularly, something all American industries will have to deal with and perhaps exploit to their advantage or ignore at their peril. If and when online poker makes its way into the Chinese market, the game will change in a fundamental way once again.

The good news is that in each of the instances in which the poker economy grew, while poker did not sustain the peaks it reached, the point where it eventually plateaued stood above where each spurt of growth began. Although the economy of the game has oscillated, the trend has been steadily upward, and the spike of the last two years dwarfs anything the game has ever seen. I have no data to support this, but I would guess that more hands of poker have been dealt to more people and for more money since Randy Blumer brought the game online than in the entire history of the game before that Jan. 1, 1998, event. Even if there is an inevitable retreat to a new plateau, the poker economy will at that juncture stand head and shoulders above its starting place.

To plan for the future of the game, there is a need for the poker industry to act together, to accept common goals, and to pursue the common good for us all.

Roy Cooke played winning professional poker for more than 16 years. He is a successful real estate broker/salesperson in Las Vegas. If you would like to ask Roy poker-related questions, you may do so online at www.UnitedPokerForum.com. His longtime collaborator, John Bond, is a free-lance writer in South Florida.