Breaking Tens in Lowball

One of the important decisions in ace-to-five lowball (with the joker) is whether to break a 10 against another player's draw. Many players get it wrong, because they don't know their chances – and what looks like the intuitive play is not the correct one.

It's clear to most players that when you have a rough 10 (10-8 or 10-9) and your opponent draws cards, the best play is to stand pat. In most cases, the pat hand has the worst of it against a one-card draw. However, drawing a card is even worse. It's a lesser-of-two-evils situation.

For example, if your hand is 10-8-6-4-2 and your opponent has 6-4-3-2, you are about a 52.3-to-47.7 underdog. But if you break the 10 and draw one card, you become a 57.9-to-42.1 underdog. Throwing away the 10 is more than three times as bad as standing. If your hand is 10-7-4-3-joker and your opponent has 7-6-5-2, you are about a 59.3-to-40.7 favorite. But if you break the 10 and draw one card, you become a 60.6-to-39.4 favorite. In general, if your drawing hand is better than that of your opponent, you improve your chances by drawing a card.

(These figures come from Mike Caro's Poker Probe, the only software program that compares situations for 15 different poker variations.)

Standing on a 10 that could be broken is a viable play generally only when you or your opponent is all in. When you both have chips to bet after the draw, you almost always draw one card even if you might not have the better draw. For example, if your hand is 10-7-4-3-2 and your opponent has 6-5-4-3, by standing you are about a 50.4-to-49.6 underdog. But if you break the 10 and draw one card, you become a 52.8-to-47.2 underdog. However, that disadvantage is offset by what you gain in the bet after the draw. Also, you might be drawing better than your opponent, in which case you have the dual advantage of increasing your expected value and gaining in the bet after the draw.

You might be able to guess at what your opponent is drawing to based on the action. If your opponent in the small blind has exactly two bets left and limps, and you raise with 10-7-4-3-2, and he calls and draws one card, your draw is almost certainly better than his and you should break the hand. If your opponent in the small blind has four bets left and comes in for a raise, you reraise, and he reraises all in and then takes one card, he is likely drawing to better than a 7 and you should stand pat. You may be unhappy if he catches a 10 to make a 10-6, which then beats your pat 10, but you still made the right decision. This is a situation in which many old-time lowball players do the wrong thing. They reason that a pat 10 rarely has the best of it over a good one-card draw, and that therefore they too should draw, but they reason incorrectly. When presented with two choices, both of which have negative expectation, you should take the least bad choice.

There is an exception to drawing when your draw is likely to be better than that of your opponent. When you have 10-5 or better, you should stand. This is because your opponent can catch a 10 and still lose – or tie.

What to do becomes much less clear when your opponent draws two cards. A pat 10 always has the best of it against a two-card draw. Similarly, any good one-card draw has the best of it against any two-card draw. Most players understand that you do better by choosing the draw that has "more the best of it." However, many experienced lowball players would stand pat with most tens against a two-card draw, but break the 10 to draw to a 6 or better – particularly if they had the joker. Let's look at the math.

If your hand is 10-4-3-2-A against 5-4-joker, your winning ratio is about 73.2-to-26.8. If, instead, you throw the 10 and draw to 4-3-2-A, your winning ratio is about 63.2-to-36.8. Against 5-4-3, your winning ratio by standing on the 10 is about 77.3-to-23.7. By drawing to 4-3-2-A against 5-4-3, your winning ratio is about 68.8-to-31.2. The better choice is to stand on the 10, and it is better by quite a bit.

If your hand is 10-3-2-A-joker against 5-4-3, your winning ratio is about 79.3-to-20.7. If, instead, you throw the 10 and draw to 3-2-A-joker against 5-4-3, your winning ratio is about 74.7-to-25.3. Again, the better choice is to stand on the 10.

If your opponent is likely to be drawing to worse than a wheel, the difference is even more pronounced.

If your hand is 10-4-3-2-A against 7-6-joker, your winning ratio is about 75.1-to-24.9. If, instead, you throw the 10 and draw to 4-3-2-A, your winning ratio is about 65-to-35. Against 7-6-5, your winning ratio is about 81.2-to-18.8. Against 7-6-5, your winning ratio by standing on the 10 is about 68.8-to-31.2. The considerably better choice is to stand on the 10.

If your hand is 10-3-2-A-joker against 7-6-5, your winning ratio is about 81.6-to-18.4. If, instead, you throw the 10 and draw to 3-2-A-joker against 7-6-5, your winning ratio is about 75.6-to-24.4. Again, the better choice is to stand on the 10.

Let's say instead that your hand is something like a 10-7, in which case your opponent's two-card draw is likely to be to a better hand than yours. The differences are just as big. Whether or not you have the joker, against any two-card draw, it is always better to stand pat on the 10.

The conclusion to draw from all of this is that if there will be no betting after the draw against a known one-card draw, you should stand pat with any 10-7-6 or worse. If your one-card draw is likely to be better than that of your opponent, you should throw the 10 and draw to a 7-5 or better. You should stand pat on any 10-5 or better. If there will be betting after the draw, you should draw to all hands 7-5 or better. Against any two-card draw, whether there will be betting after the draw or not, you should stand on any 10.

By the way, even if you are first to draw, you can sometimes tell what your opponent will do. If you have the big blind, your opponent limps, you raise, and he does not reraise, he is probably going to draw a card. Some lowball players telegraph their moves ahead of time. I know lowball players who have been playing for 40 years or more who let you know ahead of time that they're drawing. Sometimes a player puts the joker in the door (exposes it deliberately) in a vain attempt to scare you or slow you down. But this usually tells you that he's drawing, and maybe two cards. (But watch out for the tricky player who deliberately puts the joker in the door when he's pat. It helps to know your opponents' habits.) Sometimes a player even leaves a facecard in the door if it seems to him that it's obvious to you that he will draw. Some players shuffle through their cards in one way when they're drawing and another when they're not. Tells are wonderful, and they're plentiful in lowball.

From The Official Dictionary of Poker:

break: (v) Throw away part of a lowball hand (presumably with the intention of making a better hand, because as it stands, the hand is probably not a winner), often the top card from that hand, but sometimes two or more cards. "I knew he had me beat, so I broke the 9, made a 6, and beat a smooth 7 for him."

breaking hand: (n phrase) In lowball, an 8, 9, or 10 (that is, a hand topped by one of those cards) that can be broken under pressure. 9-4-3-2-A is a breaking hand, because you can throw the 9 and draw to a wheel; 9-8-7-3-A is not, because there really is no place to break. Also called a two-way hand.

Michael Wiesenberg's The Official Dictionary of Poker is the ultimate authority on the language of cardrooms. Order it online at CardPlayer.com.