Don't be Swayed by Preaseason Expectations

The new football season is just under way. That's time for those who enjoy sports betting to remind themselves to begin the campaign by wagering with their heads, and not to be overpowered by early enthusiasm or emotion. And one of the more functional reminders is to tell yourself not to buy into the preseason expectations for the teams that seem to converge toward a consensus opinion before even the second week of the season! Here are some of the reasons why being swayed by preseason expectations for teams can be dangerous.

First and foremost, you can be sure that the oddsmakers are going to take into account any high expectations when they set the line for the first couple of games. After all, it's their job to virtually neutralize public opinion on each game. In fact, the sportsbooks are quite happy to exploit the consensus early opinion on teams by jacking up the pointspreads of games involving the highest regarded of the top 25 in the college polls and the consensus favorites in the NFL.

The result? Oftentimes there's little pointspread value left when it comes to the premier teams, even in the first game! Moreover, lofty preseason status can quickly go to players' heads, especially in the college ranks. It's usually very easy for opposing coaches to get their players fired up to knock off one of the preseason "big boys." And high early rankings in the polls pretty much assume that everything is going to go swimmingly during the season, which we all know can be more like a roller coaster than an escalator. Injuries, suspensions, and defections can undermine a team's chances quickly (just ask the Miami Dolphins, who lost running back Ricky Williams to retirement and receiver David Boston to injury within a matter of days).

Another inherent problem with consensus preseason expectations is that some of the highest-rated, most powerful teams might not be volatile high-scoring teams. This can make it hard for them to cover large pointspread impositions. Take last year's defending national champion Ohio State, for example. The powerful Buckeyes returned 17 of 22 starters, plus their kicker and punter, and were considered "loaded" going into last fall. But their distractions involving star running back Maurice Clarett began at the end of July and just kept getting worse and worse under the glare of the national media spotlight. Nevertheless, the oddsmakers imposed a substantial burden on OSU, which covered only one of its first six games of 2003, winning only two of those six games by more than seven points.

Veteran coaches will tell you that each of their teams, each season, forms its own unique character and chemistry, even though 75 percent or 80 percent of the players might be the same as the previous season. Sometimes new leadership emerges. Sometimes a few "bad apples" can spoil a team by destroying morale or the desire of others to work hard and to sacrifice. Sometimes an indifferent group of seniors can set a bad example for younger players. Sometimes lofty expectations can blow up in the players' faces. That's what happened to Auburn last year after the Tigers were tabbed No. 1 in some circles in July, then got shut out at home, 23-0, by Southern Cal in their opener. The Tigers also lost their ensuing game at Georgia Tech and ended the regular season with a 7-5 record. So much for No. 1.

Finally, remember where the preseason rankings and consensus come from – mostly from sportswriters and broadcasters. To many of those "experts," the already good teams and good players are great, and young players or struggling teams rarely improve. In reality, of course, all young players tend to get bigger and stronger throughout their careers. Quarterbacks who were confused and mistake-prone as freshmen and sophomores often turn out to be not so stupid when they learn the nuances of their system, gain experience, and make quicker decisions. A couple of key personnel or coaching additions can alter the balance and reverse the momentum of previously downtrodden teams.

So, if you're determined not to be swayed by preseason media expectations, what are you going to do? First, let every team start with a "clean slate" in your mind. Let each earn your respect by its performance on the field and against the pointspread. Watch every early game you can, noting particularly every bigger, faster, stronger, smarter player. Note all the formerly struggling QBs whose completion percentages go up in 2004 while their interception totals go down. And note all the impact newcomers, especially those who fill an immediate need. That's what they were recruited for. Most of today's coaches will take chances with their talented youngsters early.

Finally, try to get a handle on each team's 2004 "chemistry" as soon as possible. That doesn't merely mean seeing if the players are happy after a win. That's too basic. Few things in football help team chemistry more than confidence, and it's competence that builds confidence. Good balance promotes competence. That means offense/defense balance, run/pass balance, veteran/newcomer balance, and speed/power balance. Refer to last year as only a point of departure in your analysis for this year, and be ready to adapt quickly. You'll often find your best early pointspread bargains in ambitious, eager teams that are outside the top 25 and are fighting to work their way up from below.

Chuck Sippl is the senior editor of The Gold Sheet, the first word in sports handicapping for 48 years. The amazingly compact Gold Sheet features analysis of every football and basketball game, exclusive insider reports, widely followed Power Ratings, and a Special Ticker of key injuries and team chemistry. To begin your handicapping for this season, look for the 2004 Gold Sheet Football Preview at your local newsstand. If you'd like to reserve a copy, just call The Gold Sheet at (800) 798-GOLD (4653) and be sure to mention you read about it in Card Player. You can look up The Gold Sheet on the web at www.goldsheet.com.