That Card After the Flop

To everything there is a season

Hold'em players talk a lot about the flop, which is understandable, since in some respects the future of the hand is fairly well-understood. The pairs flopped their sets or didn't. The suited connectors know whether they have draws or not. A-K got there or didn't. Everybody has a pretty good idea of how things will play out from here.

So, the turn card is not the one that players spend their time discussing. But there are still some important tactical and strategic concerns on fourth street, so let's talk about a few.

But before we discuss specifics, I want to make an observation about people's psychology on the turn compared to the flop. It seems that a large number of players are willing to gamble a lot on the flop, even if they're pretty clearly taking the worst of it. But on the turn, two things happen: (1) the bets double in size, and (2) there's only one card left to produce a miracle, rather than two. So, many players slow down on the turn, either calling (instead of raising) or actually folding. For instance, perhaps they had set their hopes on some runner-runner flush or straight draw. Well, if the first half of that draw doesn't get there on the turn, their hopes are dashed. Either they have to envision a new miracle river card or abandon ship altogether.

Also, the "five-out" hands have gotten much less attractive. Here's a classic "five-out" example: Our hero calls two bets cold with 10-8 from late position (why he did that is a topic for a different discussion). The flop comes A-8-3 rainbow, and the preflop raiser bets. Most beginning hold'em players can't give up their 10-8 there. And, in fact, it's probably not a terrible play. They have five outs and there's no particular reason the preflop raiser should fear a 10 or 8 on the turn. So, if our hero hits one of his five outs, he's probably going to get paid three big bets by an A-Q (two on the turn and one on the river). But when the turn is the 4 of the fourth suit, things have gotten much bleaker for the 10-8. So, while some players doggedly press on for their five-outer on the river, many give up on the turn.

The upshot of all of this is that when you get to the turn, things get serious. People calling bets on the turn are not as speculative. They generally have a pair (or whatever) and are headed to the showdown, or they need to see if the river brings in their draw.

With that preamble …

Waiting for the Turn to Raise

I generally don't advocate doing this, particularly with a vulnerable hand. Because people are willing to gamble more on the flop, you should collect money from them then. If they don't like what they see on the turn, you may not be able to collect any bets from them. Also, you can force the five-out drawers into a mathematical mistake with a well-positioned raise or check-raise on the flop.

Occasionally, though, the pot has gotten so big before the flop that you're afraid you need a bigger hammer to crush the opposition. That is, nothing you can do on the flop (in a limit hold'em game) is going to force your opponents into a pot-odds mistake. So, sometimes you are stuck offering your opponents a cheap turn card, planning to stomp on them on the turn. As an example, suppose you're in the big blind with pocket aces, and find yourself in a five-way capfest before the flop. The flop is Q-10-6, offering lots of draw (particularly gutshot) possibilities. Let's suppose the cutoff (the player in front of the button) was helping you do all the preflop raising. You could check-raise that person, but even then, the gutshots and five-outers would clearly be getting the right price to call. It may be better here to simply call a bet on the flop, pray for something like the deuce of stars (that is, a complete blank) on the turn, and then check-raise the cutoff player on the turn. If you managed to lose one player on the flop and only one small bet went in, there are 20+4 = 24 small bets = 12 big bets in the pot on the turn. Gutshot draws and five-out draws would be getting the right price to call one bet. But if you can check-raise the turn, the people in the middle have to call two big bets to win 15 (12 + 1 + 2). That's not the right price for anything except the strongest draws.

This is admittedly a risky play – you're giving a cheap turn card, you're counting on the cutoff betting for you on the turn, you're counting on not having run into a set of queens, and so on. But when pots get huge, you have to take some moderately scary measures to win them.

Getting Raised on the Turn

This is the flip side of waiting to raise. It's somebody else raising you on the turn, when you have a good but not great hand. If you have a bad hand, it's almost always correct to fold when you get raised on the turn. If you have a great hand, you call or reraise. It's when you have a "good" hand that things get difficult. But remember my comments above. Generally, when an opponent raises you on the turn, he means it. If he check-raises you on the turn, he really means it. Against a single opponent, particularly if the pot has gotten big at all, you often need to tough it out to a showdown. But if there are multiple people making and calling raises on the turn, and you can't find any credible draw to put them on, one pair, even an overpair, is probably not good. Depending on your estimation of your outs and the pot size, it may well be correct to abandon your hand right there.

I seem to have run out of words; perhaps we'll return to this topic later.

And a time for every purpose under heaven