Coaching the Coaches

Inveterate handicappers/analysts such as me are always searching for an edge – a different way to view teams that might be overlooked by the oddsmakers and public. And there's one approach I like to use in early-season analysis of football teams, not because it's dominant against the pointspread, but because it can be so revealing when it comes to examining the intermediate future of even very good teams.

And this approach will not be so apparent to the casual football fan or sports bettor. It entails closely following the turnover of the assistants on a head coach's staff. I can remember many years ago, when I was a sportswriter, the words of one coach on this subject. He is now retired, but he's still the career leader in victories at his university. Even though he was a perennial contender in his league and had a strong team coming back that season, he said he was very worried about its prospects for the coming season. For one thing, he was facing a very tough schedule. Second, he said he had spent a lot of time in the offseason and in fall practice not necessarily on elevating his returning personnel, but on coaching his assistant coaches.

Because of his string of successful seasons and postseason appearances, that coach had lost five of his top assistants in the offseason. A couple had taken head-coaching jobs, one had been promoted to a coordinator position elsewhere, and the other two had taken positions elsewhere with some close friends in the coaching profession.

Thus, our coach had to spend some of his time in the offseason interviewing candidates in order to rebuild his staff. He also had to indoctrinate them into his team's offensive and defensive systems, which he didn't intend to change much because of their long-running success. Then, once the coaches and players got on the field for spring practice, the head coach had to go from unit to unit, making sure his new assistants were coaching his players on the techniques he wanted them to use. Finally, once the season started, there was a shaking-out period for a game or two as the new coaches applied their new responsibilities and blended with the holdover staff as far as communication with assistants in the press box to get the right player-personnel groups on the field in a timely fashion in order to avoid blown plays, penalties, and wasted timeouts. In short, he said, coaching the new coaches can be a real headache.

Just about every team endures some coaching turnover in the offseason. Oftentimes, the turnover can be welcomed by the head coach, especially when a trusted former assistant and coaching buddy rejoins the staff. That can make things easier for the head coach. But, when several key assistants depart at the same time, the potential for dangerous discontinuity arises, particularly early in the season, especially against top-notch opponents, on the road, or when laying a substantial number of points. This is when turnover of key coaching-staff members becomes very interesting to me.

Sometimes, a team can be so talented that the assistant-coach losses might not be noticed immediately. But other times, those losses can be difficult to overcome. For example, Florida State has not been so dominant since head coach Bobby Bowden lost the likes of such solid assistants as the very grounded Mark Richt on offense and the emotional Chuck Amato on defense. Worse yet, after being good recruiters for Florida State, Richt took over as head coach at Georgia and Amato took over at North Carolina State, a couple of recruiting rivals of the Seminoles.

One loss that showed up immediately in 2003 was the departure of Auburn offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino to take over at Louisville after the 2002 season. In 2001, before Petrino, the Tigers were No. 86 in scoring offense. In 2002, under Petrino, they rose to No. 31. Last year, without Petrino's guidance, they fell back to No. 66. Even more dramatic were the Tigers first two games without Petrino on the headsets last year. Even with eight offensive starters returning for their opener, the favored Tigers lost at home to top-notch foe Southern Cal, 23-0, and a week later in their first road game at Georgia Tech, they fell 17-3. Petrino, a veteran offensive assistant and coordinator with NFL as well as college experience, demonstrated his prowess in his initial season at Louisville, with his Cardinals producing 35 points per game.

The bottom line is, staff stability and continuity are good; key losses and quantity turnover are bad. As is often the case in handicapping, key coaching losses are only part of the equation. The experience of the returning talent, the strength of the opposition, and the site of the contest come into play when analyzing any matchup involving a team adapting to key assistant-coaching losses. But, for my money, it has paid off to maintain a bit of hearty skepticism when a head coach loses a key assistant or a group of staffers, especially against quality foes early in the year. And if a team with major staff turnover shows problems early, I keep my eyes open for situations to go against that team until the problem is solved. Will Nebraska's veteran defense miss popular dismissed coordinator Bo Pelini (now at Oklahoma)? Will St. Louis' defense miss departed coordinator Lovie Smith (now the head coach of the Chicago Bears)?

Head coaches, usually besieged by a myriad of problems as the season goes along, know there is no substitute for good players directed by reliable, trustworthy assistants who are so in tune with the head man that they not only help him, but make things much easier.

Chuck Sippl is the senior editor of The Gold Sheet, the first word in sports handicapping for 48 years. The amazingly compact Gold Sheet features analysis of every football and basketball game, exclusive insider reports, widely followed Power Ratings, and a Special Ticker of key injuries and team chemistry. If you haven't seen The Gold Sheet and would like to peruse a complimentary copy, call The Gold Sheet at (800) 798-GOLD (4653) and be sure to mention you read about it in Card Player. You can look up The Gold Sheet on the web at www.goldsheet.com.