Playing the Percentages - Part I: Live No-Limit Hold'em Games

(Note: The odds and percentages used in this column were obtained from the "Texas Hold'em Calculator" at www.cardplayer.com.)

The best part of televised poker is being able to see everyone's holecards. But another nice perk is seeing the percentage chances of winning of each player's hand. It's a helpful tool for beginners and experts alike. If you play on a regular basis, you should pay close attention to those percentages when you're watching poker on TV. They can help shape your playing strategies, and there are lots of ways to apply knowledge of them in both live games and tournaments.

I wrote about live no-limit hold'em games in issue No. 16 ("Combination Hands in No-Limit Hold'em"), and several readers said they wanted more no-limit hold'em cash-game advice. This column will give those readers what they are looking for. In the next issue, I will discuss the effect of the percentages on your tournament strategy.

The underdogs still have some bite.

I think most people's biggest surprise when they see the percentages on TV is that the preflop favorites are not as big as they thought. Sure, the A K "dominates" the A Q, but the latter still has a 30 percent chance of winning in a showdown. We'd all be happy to have a pocket pair against a player with one overcard, such as the Q Q against the A J, but we'd still lose 32 percent of the time. Quick, you have the A K against the 10 9, how do you like your chances? You might think you are at least a 2-1 favorite, but you're not even close to that. The 10 9 has a 41 percent chance of taking down the A K.

If you didn't know these percentages, don't feel bad, as most people don't. But you should go to the hold'em odds calculator on Card Player's website and play around with it a bit. It could go a long way toward giving you a better feel for hand comparisons. You'll find that you rarely have a hand that is truly dominated preflop in a heads-up situation. You always have some hope of catching a lucky flop and winning. What does this mean for your cash-game strategy?

If the price and the situation are right, don't be shy about seeing some flops.

The world's best no-limit hold'em cash players see lots of flops. They are confident they can outplay their opposition after the flop, and they also understand the percentages. They are looking to catch a lucky flop and bust an opponent. That doesn't mean they will play anything; obviously, you don't want to overdo this concept. You don't want to be in there with total trash, and you don't want to fish around with hands like K-X suited and Q-X suited, which can easily make second-best hands and end up costing you your stack. Instead, you want low pocket pairs that can flop sets against unsuspecting opponents. You want connecting cards that can make sneaky low straights. Typical opponents will immediately become fearful when they see three of a suit on board, but they won't be nearly as afraid when they see 7-4-3 of mixed suits out there. If you can get in cheaply with a 6-5, your tiny risk could produce a huge reward.

What do you want in an opponent?

You want opponents who underplay their strong hands before the flop, but overplay them after the flop. If you're in a game with $2-$3-$5 blinds, and you and your opponents have stacks of more than $500, you want to try to enter most unraised pots when you are on or close to the button. Even in situations when someone raises to $15 or $20 preflop, you should look to mix it up a little. If you suspect that the raiser has A-A or K-K, you obviously want hands that stand the best chance of taking down big pocket pairs. As I said above, small pairs and connectors are the prime candidates.

Then, if the flop looks harmless to your opponent, you stand a good chance of busting him. It's important to know what type of player you are up against. If you are facing extremely timid opposition, it doesn't pay to fish around with subpar hands, unless you are setting that opponent up to be bluffed. Otherwise, it's not worth trying to get lucky and hit your hand, because you won't get paid off! Instead, you want an opponent who will hang on to A-A or K-K until the bitter end, as long as the board doesn't look dangerous. If the flop comes 9-5-2, and he is the type of opponent who refuses to give you credit for a set, you can expect to get paid nicely with a hand like 2-2.

Any pocket pair has about an 11.8 percent chance of flopping a set. It is well worth calling a raise to $15 with 4-4 if flopping a set gives you a decent shot of winning the whole $500 in front of your opponent. The 7 6 has about a 19 percent chance of taking down the A A. Why not call a small raise and see if you can hit two pair or a straight? If your opponent is incapable of folding A-A in the face of an 8-5-4 flop, and will pay you off the entire way, it is easy to see why it pays to come in with hands like 4-4 and 7-6, cards that would otherwise be considered very marginal.

If the buy-in is capped, this strategy gets slapped.

I advocate seeing lots of flops only when there is no cap on the buy-in. You want to be able to call small preflop raises while not spending more than 3 percent to 4 percent of your stack (such as calling a raise to $15 when you have at least $500). If you're in a game with $1-$1-$2 blinds, $4 to call preflop, and the buy-in is capped at $100 (a game that has become increasingly popular in many cardrooms), it's worth seeing some flops only if you are sure you can get in for the minimum. But if someone raises to $10, and you both have only $100 in front of you, it's costing you 10 percent of your stack to try for a lucky flop, and the potential reward is not worth the risk. You're better off waiting for the goods, and hoping that other players will go fishing when it's costing them a large chunk of their stack to do so.

Next time, I will discuss some more about how certain hands aren't nearly the big underdogs that many people think, and what that means for your tournament strategy. See you then.

You can find other articles of Matt's in the Online Poker News, which is at www.cardplayer.com.