Doing the Math With Trip Ducks

What a turnout there was for The Bicycle Casino's Legends of Poker no-limit hold'em championship (a World Poker Tour event). A total of 667 players vied for the first-place prize money of $1.2 million, which is fantastic for a $5,000 buy-in tournament. With my recent bad run in the poker tournament world (I haven't won an event in a long while, and wins are the only thing that make me happy in poker), I wanted to make sure I made it to day two (of four). Then, I could have "Hellmuthian" thoughts of winning the whole thing.

For once, I was well-rested, feeling strong, and ready to execute a well-thought game plan. Plus, I had a good feeling, which is always good for me.

After riding the poker train up and down for a while, I had about $9,000. In the small blind, I picked up my hand of the day, two deuces. It was probably the fifth time I had picked up the ducks. I called, and this time I finally hit a set when the flop came down Q 10 2.

I checked, praying that one of my four opponents would bet, whereupon I could raise or call, but at least feel like the inside-straight draws would be eliminated. If everyone checked, I was hoping that no straight card would pop up. Everyone did check, and the 9 popped up, for a board of Q 10 2 9. I bet $400 into the $750 pot. Mel Wiener called, and then Paul Phillips (this guy doesn't miss a trick) raised, making it $1,800 to go. At this point, a reraise on my part would have been appropriate, but I felt like Paul had made a straight, so I just called.

Now Mel made what I consider a bad play when he raised all in with Q-J offsuit. I was barely calling with a set, and he was moving all in with one pair and an open-end straight draw! Paul studied, and just called the $4,625 raise. I didn't know exactly what was going on, but I thought at least one of them had a straight, if not both. Mel had played his hand like a straight, and I had a bad feeling about Paul having a straight.

Finally, I decided that calling was the proper play for me here, because I was being laid a huge price to hit my full house or quads. There was $15,400 ($4,625 + $4,625 + $5,400 [$1,800 × 3] + $750) in the pot, and it was $4,625 to call; I was being laid about 3.3-to-1, and I thought Paul would call my last $3,500 that I would bet if the board paired. I knew I was a 3.2-to-1 underdog if they both had straights, but I wasn't 100 percent sure that either player had a straight. In other words, maybe my set of ducks was the best hand.

The last card was the 3, I checked, and Paul bet my last $3,500. Without any hesitation at all, I turned my hand faceup and folded it. Paul then showed the J 8, and I felt like I had made a great laydown! After all, I was being laid $23,500-to-$3,500, or 6.7-to-1, on the call. Thus, in order to fold my hand here, I had to be very sure that Paul had a straight. This laydown gave me life, but unfortunately I never really made a run thereafter.

After resting all week, relaxing, properly preparing myself to play, and having a good feeling on top of it all, I fell short of my goal of winning, and even of making it to day two. On the positive side, I played about as well as I wanted to, and I'm rounding into top form.

Unfortunately, the same thing that has made me a great poker player has caused me a ton of pain when I bust out of a poker tournament. I just plain hate to lose! And when I do bust out, I'm left feeling like a failure – every time.

Now it's time to turn my attention to the future. Perhaps there is a reason that I had such a great feeling; we'll see.

Editor's note: Chat or play poker with Phil at UltimateBet.com. To learn more about him, go to PhilHellmuth.com.