Hold'em Blind Offense

After playing for about two and a half hours in a late-night online no-limit hold'em tournament, there were about 100 players remaining from the more than 600 who had started. We had reached the "cruising stage," where most hands consisted of a raise before the flop and most or all players folding.

On my $800 big blind, it was folded around to the button, who made it $1,600 to go. The small blind folded. I held the 7 5. At this stage of a tournament when the blinds are large, it is generally recommended not to defend your blinds without a good hand, because every chip you have may be critical to your timing. As your chips dwindle down to the critical (minimum) level, you may be pressured into playing a lesser hand. Money you lost defending your blind might have been better used to wait one more round for a good hand.

However, I was familiar with the player who raised, and believed I had an edge; for example, if there were no big cards in the flop, he would be quite likely to fold to a big bet. Since he always had a good hand when he raised before the flop, he would not likely be intimidated by a "psychic" reraise (the term "psychic" is borrowed from contract bridge, and means "to create an illusion of strength").

So, I made an admittedly speculative call. But I got lucky and caught a very good flop, the 8 4 and a 7, which gave me a pair of sevens and a gutshot straight-flush draw. So, as the first to act, what would you do in this position?

I went all in – which was probably the wrong action unless I happened to be playing against someone who was likely to check if he had nothing. My thinking was heavily influenced by my desire to win the hand quickly and go on to the next hand before something bad happened. I feared that if he had two overcards, he might catch a pair on the turn.

But it was rather unlikely that he would both check after the flop and catch a pair. That was a risk I should have been willing to take. After reviewing the statistics of this situation, it appears that the best action would have been to go for the all-in check-raise.

Simulation of this situation (using Caro's Poker Probe) indicated that after that flop, I was about an 8-1 favorite against two overcards or about a 5-1 favorite against two overcards if one of them was a heart. Even if my opponent had a big pocket pair, I was still a slight favorite (about 4-3 if he had no big heart). In light of those numbers, I probably should have been willing to gamble just a bit to enhance my winnings.

Otherwise put, if my opponent had the likely two overcards, he probably would folded to my all-in bet. Whereas, if I checked, he probably would make a bet with his two overcards, and then fold to my all-in check-raise.

As it turned out, it didn't matter what I did, because all roads led to our going all in. He held pocket nines and called. But then I won easily when a 6 gave me a straight on the turn and a heart on the river gave me a flush. How sweet it is when lady luck smiles upon you.

When "cruising" in a large no-limit hold'em tournament, it is often correct to "take out insurance" by ending a hand quickly and sacrificing some amount of extra winnings to increase your likelihood of surviving. But in retrospect, in this situation, I think trying to milk some extra chips by check-raising was the best play.