Should You Bet a Scary Turn?

We all encounter scary things on a regular basis. Most of the time, these things, like roller coasters, haunted houses, and visits from in-laws, turn out to be pretty harmless (although, of course, I don't know your in-laws).

In poker, we also encounter scary situations. Unfortunately, sometimes these threats turn out to be real and jump up and bite us. Other times, they turn out to be illusions, like the haunted house. Deciding just how scared to be is one of the biggest challenges facing an experienced player.

In fact, one of the joys of poker is overcoming our fears and making the right play. After all, we don't play poker to feel totally safe!

The scariest part of poker - In limit hold'em, most of the very scary things happen on the turn. Before the flop, we usually do not have enough information to be scared. After seeing the flop, we have either a made hand, a draw (in which case we play), or nothing, and decide to fold. Sometimes we get a little nervous about the betting or the texture of the flop, but for the most part, we are pretty comfortable.

By the river, the hand is settled. While there are certainly plenty of scary cards that can fall on the river, our choices are constrained. If we are not too worried, we bet, and if we are too worried, we check or call. Errors here will cost us a bet, but rarely a whole pot. (Yes, we might fold a winner, but in limit poker, we can always decide to make that last call if we are unsure.)

On the turn, we are faced with a delicate balancing act when something scary happens. If we bet, we might get raised and have to call an extra bet, or fold and not get to see the river. If we check, we could be giving a free card, which could cost us a bet or perhaps even the whole pot. The fact that something scary happens, however, does not cause the problem. Our reaction to the scary situation is the issue. If we allow our fears to paralyze us into inaction when action would be called for, we can make a very large error.

In general, there are two kinds of things that can scare us so much that we misplay the turn:

• Our opponents' bets on the flop

• The turn card itself

One of my students recently sent me two hands, each of which illustrates one of these things. Let's take a look and decide how to handle each one.

Reacting to opponents' bets - Here is the first hand "Tony" submitted:

"In the big blind (BB), I'm dealt the 9 7. A player in middle position (MP) is the worst player at the table. He's extremely loose-aggressive and open-raises with all kinds of garbage. I also have a good read on the button; he's loose-passive. I actually have a note on him that says, "He never bets/raises his draws." MP open-raises and the button calls. I call. The flop comes 9 8 7. Obviously, this is a good flop, but it's a highly coordinated board. I could be behind to a straight (drawing to four outs), but that's unlikely. I bet, and loose-aggressive MP raises. The button cold-calls. I three-bet, MP caps it, and everyone calls. I'm fairly certain the button is drawing (to what, I don't know). But MP scares me. He's loose-aggressive, but raising and capping? Maybe a set, or a made straight? If I'm behind, I probably have four outs, but I'm not going away. The turn is the 4, a total brick. I check, planning to call. At this point, I have no idea where I stand and I don't want to get raised by MP and have to call two big bets. Both players check behind me."

No doubt, this was a tough decision to make, but I think a bet was clearly in order. Yes, I know he might have run into a buzz saw, but he also might get mugged leaving his house. Many authors and others have observed that bets and raises on the flop do not necessarily indicate strength. With two cards to come, many players with draws or the possible best hand, or a combination of a hand and draws, will make bets and raises to manipulate pot size, protect a vulnerable hand, or gain a positional advantage.

I generally use a rule of thumb that if a player needs a specific two-card combination to make a hand, and that player is loose or aggressive, I don't take his flop bets and raises too seriously. This is particularly true when the flop offers lots of opportunities for straight and flush draws, such as the one under discussion.

Does capping the betting mean they have the goods? It could, certainly, but most often, it means they do not. Many players with made hands will wait until the turn to do their serious raising in order to take advantage of the double-sized bets.

Taking all of this into consideration leads to the conclusion that Tony should have bet out on the turn. Yes, if he got raised, he had to call and be sorry he bet. But, not betting risks losing two or more bets from drawing hands, which adds up to a lot of money over the course of a year.

Reacting to a bad turn card - Here is the second hand Tony submitted:

"Third to act, I'm dealt Q-Q. A loose-aggressive player is in the small blind and is down to four small bets. The player under the gun is loose-passive. The player acting after me seems to be fairly tight, but that's a very vague impression. I have no read on the other players.

The player under the gun (UTG) open-limps, and the next player calls. I raise. The player after me cold-calls. Everyone folds to the crazy small blind (SB), who three-bets. UTG and the next player call the extra two bets. I cap it, hoping the tight player after me will fold (or at least by calling, will define his hand somewhat). Everyone calls, so we're capped five ways and the maniac SB is all in.

The flop is 7 6 2, a rag rainbow, which is exactly what I want. Two players check to me and I bet. The tight player on my left folds and the two other "live" players call (remember, the SB is all in).

The turn brings the K. Yuck! I figure there's an excellent chance that card beat me, but the pot is so large that I'm not going to fold for a single bet. So, I'm planning to call a single bet, but it's checked to me. I think for a moment and then check. I figure that even the relatively passive players acting before me would check-raise if they improved to top pair (since I had been driving the action, it would be reasonable to expect me to bet). Checking gets me to the river, where I can call the hand down for one big bet. I also get the added bonus of a free shot at my two-outer if I'm behind."

Once again, Tony has come up with an analysis that tells him he should check on the turn. And once again, it sounds reasonable, and lots of players will agree with it. They figure it is always safe to get to the river and see what happens.

I emphatically disagree. We do not play poker to be safe. It is far safer to take the money and go to a movie. We play poker to make a profit. Unfortunately for our comfort level, much of that profit comes from taking a chance, especially when the pot is large. In fact, when a pot becomes large, we should do whatever we can – including take risks – to increase our chances of winning it.

Let's examine this situation. First, there is no reason to believe that any particular opponent has a king. Sure, one might, and if he does, he might check-raise. But, he also might not. Opponents could hold a large number of hands with which to limp in, call a raise, and call a single bet on the flop. Pocket pairs, suited aces, and hands like 10-8 suited and others are possible. If they have any of these holdings, you should bet for sure.

In addition, when you raise preflop, many opponents assume that you have A-K. They will call you as long as an ace or king does not hit, and fold if one comes. So, if an opponent has pocket eights, he will call the flop hoping you have A-K, but fold the turn when a king comes. Well, you want him to fold (or call your bet with only two outs). Giving such an opponent a free shot at a two-out draw to beat you is not the safe approach. Giving another opponent a free chance to play an ace when that opponent will fold gives you yet another way to lose your money.

Betting will force any number of hands to fold that might want to draw for free, or, conversely, pay a premium to try to outdraw you. Checking will make you feel safe, but it will hurt you every time neither opponent has a king. I think the case for betting is overwhelming.

Conclusion - I am not telling you to bet the turn every time it is your turn, or every time you are afraid. For example, against several opponents, if the flop has three hearts and the turn is a fourth heart, you should not be betting without a very high heart. Many times, however, you should bet even if there is a chance it might be the wrong move. (In fact, nearly every time we bet, it might be the wrong move. Poker is a game of incomplete information. We just have to play the odds.) Ignoring excessive flop betting and a single overcard when you have a good hand may be uncomfortable, but in the long run, it will put more chips in your stack.

So, in spite of the fact that you feel afraid, if you can reasonably conclude that betting gives you the best chance of winning money in the long run, you need to overcome your fears, move beyond your comfort zone, and make that bet.