A Worthy Midseason Approachby Chuck Sippl | Published: Oct 22, 2004 |
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Now that the 2004 football season is well under way and we have more knowledge about the teams, it's time to be on the lookout to go with quality teams in high-percentage situations. One such situation can be the classic wagering case in which a favorite that was beaten in its last outing is stepping down in class against lesser opposition in its next contest.
The concept of the beaten favorite stepping down in class goes way back, at least to the early days of horse racing. Generally speaking, I much prefer sports betting to wagering on the equine sport. In fact, when it comes to the track, I might as well take the bills from my wallet and flip them, one by one, off my upstairs balcony. The result for me, at the end, would be virtually the same as spending a day at the track. Usually, the only value obtained would be sharing some time with good friends and blowing off some steam with some impromptu, and usually unrewarded, shouting during the stretch runs.
However, even I can find an occasional winner at the track by scanning the form sheets, looking for a quality horse, beaten in its last race, whose next outing is against lesser horses, or at a shorter distance, or on a preferred surface, or at better odds, or some combination of the foregoing.
In football, while it's still early in the year, the concept of the beaten favorite stepping down in class can be quite interesting from a handicapping standpoint, from a couple of perspectives. First of all, one early-season loss does not necessarily kill the chances of a "Top 10" team winning the national championship. Indeed, both Southern Cal (No. 1 in both final polls) and LSU (winner of the BCS title game last season) had one loss during the 2003 campaign (each setback came before the middle of October). Second, when a top-notch team is upset, the ensuing game becomes a "character check." Teams with top talent, good leadership, and sound coaching are likely to bounce back if facing a lesser foe in their ensuing game. You're likely to get a very focused effort. Lastly, you often get a little better pointspread value, as the loss will cause some handicappers to recheck the perceived fundamental strengths and weaknesses of the beaten team, while some of the "public" will stay away from betting on that team because they figure the players might be too disappointed by the loss to put forward their best effort.
The factors cited above can lead to one of my favorite techniques in handicapping. That is wagering on the superior, motivated team, at a "fair" price, against a beatable foe. There were several instances of this situation last year that produced profitable results.
Aforementioned Southern Cal suffered its first loss of the season in its fourth game, falling 34-31 in three overtimes in a wildly exciting thriller at Berkeley. But the Trojans bounced back with a vengeance the next week, winning 37-17 as an 11.5-point favorite at Arizona State. In fact, USC won and covered all nine of its remaining games of the season!
LSU absorbed its first loss, 19-7 against Florida, in its sixth game. The Tigers rebounded (and how!) the next week at South Carolina, winning 33-7 (laying 4 points) while out-rushing the Gamecocks 263-0.
Texas, which started the season ranked No. 4, lost its second game 38-28 to Arkansas in a turnover-filled affair. Even as a 31-point favorite at rebuilding Rice the next week, the Longhorns easily covered, winning 48-7 in a game they led 41-0 at the half. You get the idea.
MAC power Miami of Ohio, with NFL-caliber QB Ben Roethlisberger, lost its first game 21-3 at Iowa, which figured to be the toughest game on the RedHawks' schedule. It was. Miami romped 44-14 at Northwestern in its next game. After that loss at Iowa, the RedHawks won 13 straight games, covering 10.
One Top 10 team that didn't get the job done was Michigan, which lost its fourth game of the season 31-27 at Oregon. But, carrying a huge 34-point impost the next week against Indiana, the Wolverines didn't make it versus the spread, winning only 31-17. Still, all the signs of their anger and focus were there. Michigan led 24-0 at the half and 31-3 in the fourth quarter. And Indiana didn't find the end zone until four minutes were left in the game, first on a blocked punt, then on a 3-yard TD run with only 20 seconds to play.
So, if you've done your homework and know the strongest 2004 teams, you could get some interesting situations if they suffer an early loss. If such a team is coming off a loss, is stepping down some in class, is "well-trained," and is getting good "odds," you might have yourself a real good play.
Chuck Sippl is the senior editor of The Gold Sheet, the first word in sports handicapping for 48 years. The amazingly compact Gold Sheet features analysis of every football and basketball game, exclusive insider reports, widely followed Power Ratings, and a Special Ticker of key injuries and team chemistry. If you haven't seen The Gold Sheet and would like to peruse a complimentary copy, just call The Gold Sheet at (800) 798-GOLD (4653), and be sure to mention you read about it in Card Player. You can look up The Gold Sheet on the web at www.goldsheet.com.
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