When the Good Teams Meet

It's the time of the college football season when most of the non-conference, intersectional games are over and the conference races are well under way. This is when the more powerful teams in the leagues are playing each other. And, in order to get an accurate read on such matchups, handicappers have to kind of "filter" a team's year-to-date stats and keep in mind that many of those previously achieved averages and statistics are going to be hard to match when facing conference contenders of merit.

First of all, most top-40 teams tend to schedule one or two "breathers" early in the season in order to give coaches a chance to evaluate their new players, give young players a chance to get some experience, and (hopefully) provide opportunities for some game snaps for backup QBs. Virtually no team these days makes it all the way through the season without needing to call on its backup quarterback somewhere along the line, even if it's just for a few series of players in an important game.

But when quality meets quality, the touchdowns that seemed to come so easily and freely against lower-echelon foes early in the season are generally not so frequent. That's because the defenses are usually bigger, faster, and deeper, the coaching staffs are more familiar with each other, and many of the players have faced each other before in annual battles.

Also, such games tend to be played a little differently, with more action in the middle of the field, fewer long, sustained drives, and more testing third- and fourth-down situations. With conference championships, prestige, and lucrative bowls at stake, the tension is also boosted dramatically in comparison with most early-season affairs. And, in many games, there are some late-autumn weather conditions to be overcome, such as cold, wind, rain, snow, and muddy fields.

This is also the time of the year that many amateur handicappers throw away a lot of their hard-earned winnings from earlier. They become locked into comparative scores, rushing and passing yards, and scoring averages on offense and defense.

Generally speaking, however, when power teams meet, you can usually reduce the expected output on offense by about 20 percent to 30 percent and not be far off. In fact, given the increased speed and depth on defense of most power teams, when quality meets quality in the second half of the season, the games will more closely resemble NFL games, and most should be analyzed as such.

By this I mean that you can generally expect fewer points to be scored overall, with fewer long plays, fewer sustained drives, and greater difficulty scoring touchdowns when in the red zone. Thus, in such "low-variance" college games, line moves and "key numbers" (that is, pointspreads of 3, 4, 6, 7, 10, 13, 14, and so on) become more important. Big line moves and key numbers are not so important in non-conference games that involve major class differences, such as Houston at Oklahoma or Ball State at Missouri, for example.

Let's take a brief look at a couple of examples from earlier this season. After Notre Dame lost 20-17 at BYU in its opener (and didn't look very good in doing so), Michigan (a 43-10 victor over Miami-Ohio) opened as an 11.5-point favorite at South Bend. It's well-known that both of these traditional powers recruit at a high level, with their rosters full of high school all-Americans. Over the next four days, the wagering public helped force the pointspread to Michigan (-13.5). But as soon as one 14 appeared, the professional bettors and their followers began moving in, and by game day, after the sports services also got involved, the spread was down to 10.5. The pros knew that a double-digit victory at Notre Dame, even considering the recent Irish slump, was going to be hard to come by. Indeed it was, as Notre Dame used an interception, a couple of fumbles, and a blocked punt in the second half to overcome a 9-0 Michigan lead and win 28-20. Ask the Wolverines if the points they scored at South Bend were harder to come by than those against Miami-Ohio.

Another example is the LSU-Auburn game, which matched two of the top contenders in the SEC West. During the betting week, the spread varied anywhere from LSU-1 to Auburn -2 (on game day). In a tense, ferociously fought contest determined by PATs and ticky-tack official's calls, Auburn won 10-9. The defeat, by the narrowest of margins, likely finished LSU's hopes of repeating as BCS champion, as tough as that would have been to accomplish anyway. And, depending on when, where, and upon which side you wagered, you either won, lost, or tied your bet. Talk about your low-variance games!

Here's one final proviso: Before enacting your "power versus power" filter, make sure both sides in the equation are still high-quality teams. Don't go by past reputation; that doesn't get it. You have to go by current reality. Penn State was 3-9 last year, with victories over only Temple, Kent State, and Indiana! Four years ago under Paul Hackett, Southern Cal was a confused 5-7, with five double-digit losses. If a power team has lost its power, the expected quality-versus-quality scenario isn't as likely to be in play.

Chuck Sippl is the senior editor of The Gold Sheet, the first word in sports handicapping for 48 years. The amazingly compact Gold Sheet features analysis of every football and basketball game, exclusive insider reports, widely followed Power Ratings, and a Special Ticker of key injuries and team chemistry. If you haven't seen The Gold Sheet and would like to peruse a complimentary copy, call The Gold Sheet at (800) 798-GOLD (4653) and be sure to mention you read about it in Card Player. You can look up The Gold Sheet on the web at www.goldsheet.com.