Calling Raises When Beat

It always surprises me how quickly most players call raises and pay people off. I am speaking primarily of recreational players, but also the vast majority of those who are trying to play well but are not at a level to show results much beyond break-even.

A situation I see over and over again plays out as follows: An above-average but predictable player raises from late position and gets three callers, two of whom limped in before him and the third a passive player in the big blind.

Four players take the flop, which comes down A Q 7. Action is checked to the raiser, who smoothly bets, followed by everyone calling. The J falls on the turn. Again, the original raiser bets and the big blind check-raises. The next player looks displeased but doesn't really hesitate to call. The final player mucks his Q 9 and our raiser, who started the whole thing off with A-K, calls. A harmless 4 peels off on the river and the big blind fires out. The displeased caller quickly mucks his missed flush/gutshot-straight draw and Mr. A-K reluctantly calls. The big blind turns over the K 10 for the nut straight. Mr. A-K shows his hand, saying he "had to call" before tossing it in to the dealer.

Did he really have to call? Of course not. The problem with this attitude and style in general is that it becomes very expensive when you can't release strong hands despite an overwhelming clarity that the hand is no good. Any good player worth his salt would muck on the end and maybe even when raised on the turn. The gutshot-straight draw is probably the only saving grace, giving you four additional outs, although seeing the middle player cold-call the raise probably means one of your outs, the 10, will make his flush. Also, the 10 may simply split the pot.

Because our check-raiser in this example is known to be passive, his raise on the turn should scream out big hand! The guy has either a set or a straight. Why can we rule out two big pair? Well, because we have been observing his passive tendencies, we know that he might have check-raised the flop with A-Q but now would be pacified by his fear of the straight after the jack falls. As well, if he made queens up on the turn while holding Q-J, he still has to worry about the raiser holding A-Q or the straight. He might, however, check-raise with a set since he still has outs to fill up, and let's face it, even passive players can't wait around all night for the nuts.

Let's analyze the action as an observer first. Before the flop, we have four callers putting in two bets each plus a fraction of a bet from the small blind (from which the house takes the jackpot rake, rendering it pretty much insignificant). After the flop, everyone calls, so we have 12 bets in the pot. On the turn, Mr. A-K bets (two more bets), the big blind raises (four bets), and the player with the big draw calls (four more bets), so the action now facing Mr. A-K is whether to call two more bets to win 24 (22 plus his last two), a 12-1 payoff.

In order to improve your results, you need to develop the skill of quickly figuring your outs, so let's walk through it now. Assuming that we correctly put the guy on a set or a straight, an ace fills him up, so that's no good. A king for top two pair is no good. A 10 that doesn't put a third spade on board will give us the nut straight, although we have to worry about a split pot. Clearly, we have only three decent outs. Three outs with 46 unseen cards is more than 14-1, the odds are not there to continue. Also, consider that at least one of your opponents likely holds a 10, further thinning your chances and you very well may be looking at a split if you catch your long shot. Even factoring in getting paid off on the river doesn't compensate you enough, so you should ditch the hand and save the bets.

This is a fair amount of info to process on the spot with the action on you and people wanting you to decide quickly. But much of this analysis becomes second nature when you do it regularly. You must develop the habit of going through this process or else be doomed to never really knowing why your bottom line is so poor.

Even if you've been running good, feeling lucky, or whatever, and decide to call the raise, you should by no means call the river. Forget the fact that the player between you and the big blind drops out on the end. You don't have to see his cards to know he can beat your top pair. You have one pair, for crying out loud!

In the above scenario, we saw how a recreational player threw away four extra bets by becoming married to his A-K. Once you develop the ability to play A-K after the flop, understanding the flop texture and how the hand is proceeding, and knowing how to maximize your chances of winning and minimize wasted bets, you won't be one of those players who limps in with A-K before the flop to avoid being disappointed.

With the flop containing an ace, a queen, and a rag, two of them suited, I want to bet and represent my top pair just as the other players expect me to. I also want them thinking confidently that I'm going to bet the turn, so they'll wait in hiding to check-raise me if they've hit. But, depending on what the turn is, I may or may not make that bet. Most players notice when that third suited card falls and will immediately fear the made flush. As the perceptive one in this hand, you have to process the fact that you have three players calling your flop bet. With a flop containing two big cards and two spades, that means lots of turn cards can jeopardize your hand. Even though you may have the best hand now, you aren't a favorite to win. In fact, a player with the flush draw is a tiny favorite, inching you out 39.6 percent to your 38.4 percent (see the poker calculator on CardPlayer.com).

When the jack hits the turn, I know instinctively that I'm not going to bet. Middle-limit players love to play Q-J, A-J, and K-10 to raises without a thought in the world. But I want the table to think I'm going to bet so that they'll check to me. Now, I get to see the river for free, and when the tight, passive guy in the blind bets out, I'll likely call him down because it isn't clear that he has me beat. My check on the turn says that I may not have an ace, and for all I know, he might have A-K, as well. The guy with the busted draw is going to fold, and the guy with the Q-9 may call, giving me greater odds on a payoff if he does. All in all, I will make the crying call on the end.

The point is this: Calling raises liberally and subsequently paying those raisers off with your strong but second-best hand is a sure way to kill profits. Yes, it's a bummer when you pick up A-K, raise to pressure out the riffraff, flop top pair, and then lose. We've all been there. But no one's going to care a couple of hands later about your run-of-the-mill beat. It sure wasn't a bad beat.

Always take a moment when facing a raise and assess the situation. Profitable poker is achieved through understanding, negotiating, and manipulating situations. When a passive player check-raises the turn with a scary board in a multiway pot, there is more than a 90 percent chance that he has better than two pair. And it's probably more than 95 percent. At the middle limits, this is just a reality.