The Changing Face of the Super Bowl?

It's no secret the Super Bowl has become the biggest single event in sports. It has evolved into one of the biggest shows in television, with mind-boggling advertising rates for multimillion dollar commercials sponsored by some of Wall Street's biggest companies.

And it used to be a handicapper's dream, beautiful for its simplicity. But it's not so much anymore.

For the first 29 Super Bowls, just about all you had to do to win your wager was to pick the straight-up winner of the game. If you did, you cashed your ticket 27 of the first 29 times! [For handicapping purists who are wondering, I'm calling Pittsburgh's 35-31 victory over Dallas in the 1978 season a pointspread win for the Steelers at -3.5. There was some late, late action that pushed the spread to 4 or 4.5, but that was before the days of Internet wagering. You had to be in exactly the right place at the right time to get it, although a few conscientious handicappers found some late 4.5 and "middled" when the game fell on 4!]

Of course, to pick the Super Bowl win ner and collect all 27 of those first 29 times, you had to properly anticipate the eight underdogs that won straight up. And not too many people had the first two, which were the Jets (18.5) in their 16-7 upset of the Colts in Super Bowl III and the Chiefs (12) in their 23-7 upset of the Vikings in Super Bowl IV. There were many more underdog supporters a year later when Baltimore (+2.5) edged Dallas 16-13 in the first Super Bowl appearance for the Cowboys. After that, 16 of the next 18 favorites that won the game covered the game, most in blowouts.

The "public" loved it. Take the superior team, lay the points, throw a party, enjoy the rout, collect your winnings. If "your man" made you lay an extra point, or two, or three, so what?

But things started to change nine years ago. And that's the reason for this column. The change began after the 1994 season, which culminated with San Francisco's 49-26 rout of San Diego (an 18-point underdog). Those who remember the game will recall that S.F. led 28-7 in the second quarter, and 42-10 late in the third, with Steve Young passing with virtual impunity for six touchdowns. The pointspread outcome wasn't in doubt for long, and S.D.'s last two TDs (on a 98-yard kickoff return and late fourth-quarter TD pass, plus a couple of two-point conversions) saved the Chargers from total humiliation only in the record books, not on the field of play.

Since that game (that is, for the last nine years), however, six favorites have won the Super Bowl straight up, but only two of them have covered! The oddsmaker has taken advantage of those who are eager to "lay the lumber" regardless of the pointspread. Only two of the last nine favorites have won and covered, and one of those ended up being kind of a "gimme" for favorite bettors when veteran safety and team leader Eugene Robinson of the Falcons was busted for solicitation in Miami's South Beach area the night before the game! So much for setting a good example. Atlanta (+7.5) was blown out early by John Elway and Denver, losing 34-19, in another game that was not as close as the final indicates.

Nowadays, the oddsmaker can make the spread big enough. And he's quite willing to do so. Dallas (-13.5) in the 1995 season failed to cover against Pittsburgh, winning only 27-17. Green Bay (-14) failed to cover in the 1996 season against New England, winning 35-21. (In fact, most partisan bettors in both Wisconsin and the New England area lost, as bookmakers in those locales moved their own local "prices" as much as 3 points, making G.B. -17 and N.E. only +11, respectively!) St. Louis (-7) failed to cover in the 2000 season, winning 23-16 against Tennessee in a game that ended with the Titans at the Rams' 1-yard line. And New England (-7) failed to cover last year against upstart Carolina, winning on a last-play field goal, 32-29. The last favorite to both win and cover the Super Bowl was Baltimore (-3) against the N.Y. Giants (34-7 losers), and that was four years ago!

The spigot of easy money for the public has been turned off, and I think it's a sign of the times. For the past few years, Las Vegas oddsmakers have been willing to move the pointspread on any game further and faster than ever. They are less fearful of being middled, and more willing to try to capture as much "square money" (that is, wagers made by unsophisticated bettors) and as many late "impulse" wagers from the betting public as possible – all at a less-favorable spread, of course. This is reflected in the substantial late line moves in all the college bowl games in recent seasons. Obviously, oddsmakers will still try to avoid being "middled" on the Super Bowl. But they will take more risks than in the past.

Those more flexible line moves are an important sign of the times, when more favorites than ever – in college and pro football combined – win games but fail to cover the spread. Another sign in the 21st century is that points scored in many games tend to flow more freely. As a result, many popular statistics mean less than in the past. Averages mean less than in the past. And trends mean less in handicapping than in the past. You'd better think twice about taking the favorite in the Super Bowl regardless of the spread.

Chuck Sippl is the senior editor of The Gold Sheet, the first word in sports handicapping for 48 years. The amazingly compact Gold Sheet features analysis of every football and basketball game, exclusive insider reports, widely followed Power Ratings, and a Special Ticker of key injuries and team chemistry. If you haven't seen The Gold Sheet and would like to peruse a complimentary copy, just call The Gold Sheet at (800) 798-GOLD (4653) and be sure to mention you read about it in Card Player. You can look up The Gold Sheet on the web at www.goldsheet.com.