World Poker Tour Championship - Part II

In the first part of this series I caught up with Tuan Le after he had survived a difficult field (details below). We discussed tournament strategy and delved into some of his thoughts during final-table play. In addition, the winner provided a suggestion that, if followed, is sure to help your game. Part I is available at www.CardPlayer.com. The 20-day Five-Star World Poker Classic is a big-time competition. There are 10 preliminary tournaments (all no-limit Texas hold'em contests with buy-ins ranging from $1,570 to $5,150) and several days of supersatellite play leading up to the main event, a seven-day, $25,500 tournament that determines the World Poker Tour (WPT) season three champion. This column will capture the action in the championship event. The results of the warm-up events can be found at www.CardPlayer.com. A WPT Championship record field of 452 came to play this year, creating a prize pool of $10,961,000 with a whopping $2,856,150 set aside for the winner (that includes entry into the 2006 WPT Championship). Tournament personnel work long hours and are justifiably taken care of through their "cut" (3 percent of the entry fees, or $339,000).

Johnny Chan (standing) checks out the crowd of players on day one of the WPT Championship at Bellagio.

Bellagio Hotel and Casino in Las Vegas has been a leader in hosting WPT events since savvy businessman and Poker Hall of Fame member Lyle Berman combined forces with award-winning producer/director and WPT visionary Steve Lipscomb to bring this incredible format to us. Host casinos on the tour have taken a relatively small entry fee relative to the buy-in amounts, and they continue to do so. Of course, the popularity of poker has worked in their favor, thus the flagship MGM Mirage property will gross $226,000 from the 2 percent takeout in addition to reaping revenue in side action, hotel rooms, and restaurant tabs. Poker is, simply put, a big-time industry in 2005.

As I drove to Bellagio, I forecasted a number of entrants (422) and allowed a friend to bet over or under. He immediately jumped on the over, stating, "I would have played over even if you had made the line 500." Within an hour I was relieved of $10 when the final listing of entrants was posted.

Speaking of betting lines, several cyberspace sportbooks offer them on individual players for major poker tournaments. With the enormous fields our game is attracting, I advise passing on these typically undervalued "odds to win" lines. The best "win bet" used to be on "the field" (players who were not individually listed with designated odds, but were lumped together). Alas, lately, the odds on "the field" have been reduced to unplayable numbers. I blame the loss of this great bet on the ever increasing size of the actual fields and the last three World Series of Poker (WSOP) champs (all field plays).

The best betting opportunity is individual pairings – betting one participant to outlast another. As long as I can win more than I bet – for example, bet $10 to win $11 – I take the underdog in matches of strong players, for example, Phil Ivey versus Daniel Negreanu or Erik Seidel versus John Juanda. I bet the underdog because these great players are fairly evenly matched and, as we know, many showdowns are coin-flip type situations, thus luck becomes a factor, so in essence I may be getting 6-to-5 on a coin flip. Another way to get good value is to take advantage of a bad line. Linesmakers have shown a tendency to overvalue wins when setting "last longer" odds. So, if you see Hansen versus Harman, grab Harman (figuratively). Sure, Gus is a threat to win anytime he enters an event, but in losing efforts, he flames out relatively early compared to Jen, a more patient player who has incredible "cashed in" and "made final table" ratios. Betting is all about finding the technical or fundamental edge and getting value.

DAY ONE: Each player in the first flight (234 players will compete today) exchanged his/her $25,500 receipt for $50,000 in chips and Jack McClelland, our seasoned, well-dressed tournament director, got things rolling. The first level of no-limit Texas hold'em began with a $50 small blind and a $100 big blind. Five limits (90 minutes each) will be completed by day's end.

I decided to take a few photos because play is relatively unexciting in the early stages when the blinds are not worth the battle. Of course, on occasion there will be big pots due to speculative $100 limping by players hoping to catch a nut hand and trap an opponent with a holding that he (442 men) or she (10 women) can't release. Risking five such $100 investments costs only 1 percent of your chips and often yields excellent returns.

FACT OR FICTION: The objective of day-one play in a seven-day tournament is to survive. That may have been fact in the '90s, but it is now fiction. Come to think of it, we didn't have seven-day events back then, but you get my point. Sure, about 24 percent of our field will be knocked off in their first day of play. Some of those departing early might be thinking their goal should have been survival, but with today's huge fields, it is important to take chances to accumulate chips. Since players are clearly displaying a greater tendency to gamble in 2005, opportunities to pick up a substantial amount of chips exist. If you don't take advantage of loose opponents' propensities, someone else will, and you might find yourself in poor relative chip position early on. A big stack can be used as a weapon to bully smallish to medium-size stacks. Note, I didn't include short stacks as "bullyable" since holders of small stacks will be looking for an opportunity to get their chips in before their raise is considered "harmless." For more on this subject, let's hear what former World Champion Scotty Nguyen had to say when I caught up with him during an early break.

LEE: Scotty, do you remember the time we talked about day-one play at the World Series as we walked from Binion's bingo room to our cars in 2000? (Scotty apparently doesn't recall our conversation, so I continue.) You told me the object of day one was to survive. Do you still think that way?

Scotty Nguyen is all smiles on day one as he steadily builds his chip stack from $50,000 to $233,750.

SCOTTY: No, baby, now it's different. Back then you could just sit there and play big hands. Now, these fields are so big and the players are so aggressive that you try to build your chips up on day one. When I come in now, I attack – you have to. (smiling) They have to survive around Scotty Nguyen now, baby. Scotty's clairvoyant powers appear to be working today. He finishes with $233,750, a total that leads the 344 survivors after both flights have completed five levels. The gregarious 1998 world champ is followed by: Eric Weiner ($231,450), Steve Stolzmann ($200,625), Nikolaos Frangos ($189,775), and Robert Alexander ($180,725). John Esposito is sixth with $173,600. John is known for playing Vahedi style (unlighted cigar in mouth, hand, or pocket). His recent results have been very good and he is certainly a threat. However, while it is great to be in the top 2 percentile going into your second day of play, history tells us not to expect to see any of these players at the final table. Some competitors to watch with $100,000 or more are reigning World Champion Greg Raymer, Sammy Farha, Erick Lindgren, Alan Goehring, Blair Rodman, and James Bechtel. Weiner acquired many of his chips when his pocket aces ended the repeat hopes of season two champ Martin de Knijff, who held kings. I watched Farha play for about an hour. His style is similar to Daniel Negreanu's (both play a relatively high number of hands, read very well, and make good decisions on the turn and river). Both are press-friendly and fun to watch.

FACT OR FICTION: It is more favorable to start on the first day than the second. Based on early returns, I'd have to say fact. The final table at the 2004 WSOP was comprised of nine players who began in the first flight. Perhaps that was a random aberration, but I'd prefer to play a day and rest the following day in preparation for (hopefully) five grueling sessions.

DAY THREE (for the tournament, but the second day of play for each competitor): The players will complete another five levels today (taking them through $1,000- $2,000 blinds with $300 antes). The seven-day format enables participants to get sufficient rest each evening (play has been ending before 9 p.m.). I will be in motion, since 180 players are pushing chips in the Fontana Bar (the oval, upscale watering hole that overlooks the outdoor water/music show) and the remaining 164 will start in the area being used for poker during the cardroom renovation/expansion. I anticipate approximately 150 will survive the day's action, thus all will be competing in the Fontana Bar on day three.

John D'Agostino – youth being served in poker

FACT OR FICTION: John D'Agostino is the best 22-year-old poker player in the world. I'll go out on a limb and say that's a fact. After watching the Connecticut resident play so impressively on television against the world's best (including Juanda, Lederer, and Ivey in the American Poker Championship last July), I was anxious to see how John's early-round tournament strategy would stack up. In a rarity, he ended day one with precisely $50,000. While he didn't gain or lose a chip, he lost ground, since his opponents' average stack size was approximately $66,000 when play began on day three. I watched him zoom past $100,000 during level eight. Then, just before 8 p.m., he flopped top two pair when holding Q-9 suited, but fell victim to Alan Boston's 9-9. Without seeing D'Agostino's cards most of the day, it was difficult to assess his ability, but his demeanor and focus are excellent, as are his results. He uses position well, makes moves against the right players, and opponents look to avoid him. I wondered whether he would want me to take another picture, because he looked kind of "tough" in the one you are viewing here. John looked at the photo and said, "No, this one's OK. That's how I look most of the time when I play." D'Agostino, Joe Cassidy, Scott Fischman, Thomas Keller, Eric Sagstrom, David Williams, and other young stars have given us a question to ponder: Is experience overrated? But, that's a subject for another day.

Spencer Sun shines on day three.

FACT OR FICTION: On average, the sun shines 320 days in Vegas. That's a fact, according to our chamber of commerce. Today was one of those days, as Spencer Sun moved up from $63,200 to $328,500. Do you remember Sun? He won the second Tournament of Champions (TOC) while wearing Patti Beadles' "magic flower hat," the same chapeau that their friend J. P. Massar had borrowed from Beadles the year before when the lighting bothered the famed blackjack player's eyes. The field was similar in size for that TOC event (486), but Sun's prize money of $239,400 pales in comparison to the purses of today.

Spencer's aggressive game is rooted in problem solving, mathematics, and his ability to make great reads. Another interesting thing about Sun is his terrific capacity for hand recall. I have firsthand experience because after his TOC victory, we discussed hands that I had scribed throughout final-table play. The Princeton graduate filled in the missing details with an almost eerie ability to recall the bets and the cards. Folks, I shouldn't root for any player (the two main rules for the press are: always be on the lookout for free food and remain unbiased), but if Sun should win this event, we can look forward to some great insight. For example, he picked up a large pot involving Greg Raymer today. I witnessed the hand, and a few hours later, during a break, Spencer filled me in:

LEE: I watched an interesting hand in which you made the nut straight on the river against an all-in player and Greg Raymer. What were your thoughts as you played the hand?

World Series Champion Greg Raymer finishes day one among the top 10 players. Will one person ever be able to hold both major titles simultaneously?

SPENCER: I was in the big blind and was faced with a decision to call or fold when an early-position raiser attracted four callers, including the small blind. I was getting 17-to-2, so I decide to take a flop with Q-10. The flop comes K-J-3 with two clubs and a diamond. It's checked to one of the callers, who goes all in for $16,600. It gets folded around to the small blind. He thinks, but folds. I'm not thrilled about drawing for the straight with a flush draw on the board, but in the best of worlds, I get heads up against the all-in guy and I get two shots to hit the straight, getting better than 2-to-1. I actually considered raising, but that would have worked out really poorly because, as it turns out, Greg (sitting to the left of Spencer) had a set. So, I ended up flat-calling, as did Greg. So, the turn is a small diamond, not a great card for me, and I check. Greg bets $20,000. There's $68,000 plus in the pot. I can't really put Greg on a flush draw, so I figure my straight is good if I hit and I may get some chips from Greg if that happens, so I decide to see the river card. The A♦ comes, so I make my straight and the backdoor flush gets there. I started thinking about what to do (Sun took 44 seconds to act). If I bet $70,000 (all in) and get called, I'm not happy. Also, I'm not sure what happens if I bet $30,000 and get raised all in. Given that there's an all-in player, I thought I might get away with not being raised, and that's what I did (bet $30,000). Greg thought for about a minute and called. I got lucky that he decided to slow-play his set of jacks.

LEE: I'm surprised he did, but Greg is a tricky, albeit aggressive, player.

SPENCER: Well, Greg said he just didn't put me on that type of draw. He was probably hoping I had some kind of king, and if I made two pair, he could get a lot of chips from me. I don't think he could put me on A-K, because with a raise and all those callers (before the flop), I'm likely to try to pick up the pot (with a big reraise).

LEE: Did relative chip count enter the equation?

SPENCER: Yes, that's another thing. I looked behind me and saw some deep stacks (danger, but opportunity). That's why I finally decided to call on the flop. I was thinking, if Greg has a set and he raises, I can get away from the hand. Greg's got a lot of chips and there's no reason for me to call a big raise. In addition, if either of the players behind me just call, they are deep enough (in chips) that I make it pay off if I make my straight. At no time was I comfortable with the hand until the point that Greg looked at my Q-10 and mucked his cards. Here are the top five, and our shortest stack:

DeFrancis and other small-stack players, including Tony Cousineau, Josh Arieh, Bob Feduniak, and Thor Hansen will be looking to make a move tomorrow. ♠

Lee will return in the next issue to continue this four-part series. He will discuss short-stack strategy and cover the exciting action he witnessed in days four, five, and six.