Baseball Totals Basics

Having observed sports wagering very closely for nearly three decades, I have noticed many changes. One of them is that there are many more very intelligent, capable, and aggressive handicappers. One result, in my opinion, is that oddsmakers have generally become more intelligent, capable, and aggressive in reaction.



Years ago, sportsbooks were hesitant to move very much from their early lines (especially in football), for fear of being middled. However, in today's world of global, 24-hour, Internet wagering, sportsbooks are less concerned. Their bigger fear seems to be accepting large amounts of money on one side of a game that the betting public defines by its action as one of its preferred wagers.



Therefore, sportsbooks are much more willing to move their lines faster and farther than ever before, even at the risk of absorbing a few middles. Once they discover that one, two, or three games that day are the most preferred of the betting public, they rarely hesitate in moving their numbers. They figure that if the public is "in love" with some of the favorites that day, the public must pay dearly to wager on those teams. And if the public "loves" an underdog, the public will get less if the underdog wins. This is true as much for the money-line odds in baseball as it is for pointspread wagering in football and basketball.



The result often is that if you don't bet early in baseball, or if you're not a successful "contrarian" bettor (not many are), it's a little harder to make money in baseball. In other words, if you're not a successful early bird, there's generally less for you to "eat" later in the day. In baseball, I have found there are two solutions for the handicapper. One (which I recommend for all sports) is to handicap a day ahead of time so that you're prepared to do the majority of your wagering early. Gather all of your stats, have them digested and analyzed, sleep on them if you must, and be ready to move on the most promising plays early. Then, if the line changes later in the day, you can decide whether to extend your wager further. Or, you might be able to "take some of your wager back" by going the other way late in the day if something develops with a team that you didn't know about earlier.



In baseball, more than in other sports, in my opinion, there is an alternative. And that has to do with "totals" wagering. The over/under total posted on the vast majority of baseball games during the season is between 7.5 and 9.5 runs. While the oddsmakers are also aggressive in adjusting the totals these days to handle heavy wagering, they can't move them as much from morning until game time or they'll take a great risk of being middled. The modus operandi of sportsbooks these days is to adjust the runs line by half a run or so to account for heavy wagering action, but then to adjust the odds on a popular "over" and/or "under" from the familiar 110 to win 100 to -120, -125, -130, -135, and sometimes even more. So, while you might have to pay a little more now and again (don't make a habit of it, however), you can still often get a "fair" total for a game, whereas the change of the odds on the side (say, from -120 early in the morning to -155 late) might make you choke a little.



All of this is a preamble to some fairly simple rules of thumb in wagering on baseball totals. Keep in mind that while the rules of thumb might be simple, winning is usually not so simple. But here are some basic rules for baseball totals wagering:



1. It usually takes BOTH teams to score some runs in order for a game to go "over." Research has shown that if the losing team in a game doesn't score more than two runs, the chances of that game going "over" decline precipitously..

2. You must consider more than just the starting pitchers' ERAs. Unearned runs count on the scoreboard, too, and so do runs yielded by relievers.

3. Take the time to learn each team's bullpen. If a team's ace closer is unlikely to pitcher that day (for example, he's pitched three days in a row, or went two innings the previous day), you might want to rethink your wager before going "under."

4. Pay attention to those middle relievers. As I've written before, terrible middle relief is the silent killer of "unders." Poised, successful middle relievers preserve "unders"; wild, incompetent, still-learning middle relievers should make you think "over" if you don't trust the starter to last five innings.

5. Know the parks. In fact, there were more home runs hit at The Ballpark in Arlington last season than there were at "Coors Canaveral" in Colorado. The new Petco Park in San Diego is an "airport" that yields few home runs. The new Citizens Bank Park in Philly is a "bandbox."

6. Know the lineups. When more than one key run producer is out for a team, it usually resorts to using more of a "small ball" approach.

7. Check the weather (but don't bet just the weather). In several parks, the number of runs likely to be scored declines substantially if the weather is cool (Anaheim is one of those). No one element is the single determining factor in totals wagering. If it were, the life of the sports bettor would be very easy. But, as usual, the more you know about the game, the players, the teams, and the setting, the more you're likely to win.



Chuck Sippl is the senior editor of The Gold Sheet, the first word in sports handicapping for 48 years. The amazingly compact Gold Sheet features analysis of every football and basketball game, exclusive insider reports, widely followed Power Ratings, and a Special Ticker of key injuries and team chemistry. Look for the extraordinary 2005 Gold Sheet Football Annual on newsstands this June. Or, you can reserve your copy by calling The Gold Sheet at (800) 798GOLD (4653), and be sure to mention you read about it in Card Player. You can check The Gold Sheet on the web at www.goldsheet.com

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