The Problem With Season-Wins Wagers - Factors to consider before making season-long sports wagers

Near the start of each season, it's inevitable that I'll get questions about which teams provide good prospects for wagers on season over/under victory totals. This is particularly true when the start of the NFL season draws near. Usually, those who ask are disappointed to learn that I usually discourage such wagers.

That's not to say that betting on season over/under victory totals can't be fun and profitable. Of course, it can be both. It's just that many sports fans fail to keep them in perspective. To me, there are more reasons to consider "passing" on such wagers than there are for making them.

In the first place, season over/under wagers can tie up parts of a sports-betting bankroll for months at a time. With a smaller amount of cash to work with, many sports bettors sometimes find themselves altering their normal wagering patterns once the season begins, or they might feel a financial squeeze if they get off to a difficult, slow start in the new season. All veteran sports bettors know that financial pressure will test one's money management discipline at the least, and – worse yet – might end up fazing your in-season handicapping of which games and how many games to play each week.

There are other reasons to consider "passing" on season-long wagers. The odds are normally "puffy" on most of the more popular teams. That's because it doesn't take too long for the professional sports bettors in Las Vegas to "sharpshoot" the over/under numbers as soon as they are posted by the casinos (and on the Internet), knocking them into shape. An improved team that might have opened with a line of 8.5 wins at odds of -115 to 100 might be 8.5 wins at -145 or 9 wins at -120 by the time most of the general public gets around to handicapping the overall season. It can be hard to find much value.

The same thing is true for those who enjoy wagering on which team will win the Super Bowl, or the NFC and AFC championships, or the BCS title in college. The aggressive oddsmakers these days will take out much of the edge on the popular teams, and the early-bird professionals will grab the best remaining prices on the top candidates.

There's also the personnel factor to consider. Those who wagered on the Miami Dolphins to go "over" the posted victory total last year were surely disappointed to learn about Ricky Williams' "retirement" at the start of training camp. In-season injuries suffered by quarterback Steve McNair and running back Chris Brown virtually doomed the chances of the Tennessee Titans to go "over" by midseason. The longer the period between the time that the wager is made and when the outcome is determined, the greater the X-factor (the possible events that can play a role in determining the outcome of the wager).

Moreover, June or July wagers made on season over/under football wins can often create early biases in your evaluations of teams that might linger in the regular season. When betting each week, it's best to keep an open mind. The team that performed exceptionally well to help you win a wager the previous Sunday might have to cover a jacked-up spread the ensuing week. To win consistently throughout the season, sports bettors usually have to demonstrate considerable flexibility that's free of any biases. It's rarely good to be "locked in" to early opinions.

Lastly, sportsbooks in Nevada and on the Internet have combined to offer more season-long wagers than ever these days. Depending on the sportsbook, you can bet on NFL team over/under win totals, college team over/unders, which team will be the Super Bowl champ, the AFC champ, the NFC champ, the champs of each of the eight divisions in the NFL, the BCS champ, and the champs of the college conferences. In each case, the sportsbook gets to hold your money for months with the X-factor in its favor. And, the bettor can lose several wagers due to a single event (just ask those who took Miami to go "over" in season wins, to win the AFC East, to win the AFC title, and to win the Super Bowl, even though that was a long shot). When all of the above are considered, you can understand why I am not a big proponent of such season-long wagers, especially if those wagers are made on impulse or with a provincial bias, and even more so if they're made at bad odds.Despite all of those caveats, I know that many of you enjoy such wagers. So, here's a quick list of guidelines:

Don't tie up a substantial portion of your sports-betting bankroll. Expect lots of regression to the mean; that is, for last year's top teams to slip a bit (victory is fleeting, folks) and for most of the dregs of the previous season to improve at least a little. Always review a team's schedule before wagering. And don't get overly simplistic with your expected wins and losses. Few teams go through the season without encountering some adversity. Identify the toughest games and focus on where they will be played. It is an exception when a team wins more than half of its toughest road games. If the odds are terrible on a wager you like, pass for now and wait for the regular season. After you make your wagers, forget about them for a long while. Never let them phase your in-season opinions. Lastly, never throw good money after bad in an attempt to salvage a lost wager. Your best chance to win each season is to keep looking forward – to keep anticipating – not back.

Chuck Sippl is the senior editor of The Gold Sheet, the first word in sports handicapping for 48 years. The amazingly compact Gold Sheet features analysis of every football and basketball game, exclusive insider reports, widely followed Power Ratings, and a Special Ticker of key injuries and team chemistry. Start your handicapping with the extraordinary 2005 Gold Sheet Football Annual, now available on newsstands nationwide. Or, you can reserve your copy by calling The Gold Sheet at (800) 798-GOLD (4653), and be sure to mention you read about it in Card Player. You can look up The Gold Sheet on the web at www.goldsheet.com.