A Poker Correspondence, Part II - Analysis of middle-limit hold'em hands played by a friend

by Rolf Slotboom | Published: Aug 23, 2005

In Part I of this column, I discussed a couple of hands that Marc, a very good friend of mine, had sent me to review. In this column, I will analyze three more limit hold'em hands that Marc played in another session. My thoughts/comments are in italics.

Hand No. 1 ($30-$60 limit hold'em):
It is a full game with two good players (James and Jack), one average player, a couple of weak players, and a maniac who I've seen four-betting with 5-4 suited. I get A-3 offsuit in the big blind. The average player (AP) raises from middle position. Everybody folds to the small blind, who calls the raise, and so do I. The flop is Q-6-3 rainbow. We both check to the AP, who bets. The small blind folds, I check-raise, the AP three-bets, and I call. The turn is another 3. I once again check-raise the AP, who just calls now. The river is a 6; we both check, and my A-3 is good. In hindsight, I think I definitely wimped on the river and missed a bet. What are your thoughts?

Well, I don't like calling raises with weak aces, especially if your opponent is the type of player who likes to raise with big aces. (Quite a few average players fit this description.) I would say that your flop check-raise is rather creative and your turn check-raise very good. Even though you won the hand, from the way it was played, it looks like you were up against A-Q, meaning that both before and on the flop, you were drawing extremely thin. Your evaluation of your river play is correct: You definitely should have bet for value there.

Hand No. 2:
I get the Q J in the cutoff seat and raise after five limpers. Everybody calls. The flop comes J-10-6 with two spades. An early-position player (EPP) bets into me, there is one caller, and I raise. Only the EPP calls. When the turn is an offsuit queen, the EPP once again bets into me, and I just call with my top two pair. Another queen on the river gives me the top full house. The EPP bets once more, I raise, and he calls, showing Q-9. In hindsight, I think I should have raised him on the turn, but I'll be honest, I was afraid that he had the straight.

I think you probably did the right thing by just calling. You are in position, and you don't need to raise to get the other players/possible draws out, as they are out already. Just call, and if a blank comes on the river, simply call him if he bets, or bet iif he checks. This might be the best way to play the hand from a maximizing winnings/minimizing losses point of view. By the way, I don't like your opponent's play one bit. On the flop, he sort of tries to semibluff you, when it should be clear that both you and the other players will probably like this flop. Not only is he likely to be up against top pair, an overpair, or even a set, if someone has A-Q (which is quite likely in a multiway, raised pot), he is drawing to a gutshot only. On the turn, he bets into you once more, but a board of Q-J-10-6 with two of a suit doesn't look that great to me when you're heads up against someone who has shown strength both before and on the flop. (Other than specifically A-J or K-J, there was no way he could be in the lead; against a probable hand like the A K, he would even be drawing dead.) However, his turn bet is not nearly as bad as his flop bet. Now, he loses exactly the same by betting as by check-calling, and in case you have just a jack, he avoids giving you a free card by betting the turn. Even though it is probable that his hand is no good, with so much money in the pot, he cannot afford the mistake of folding the winner; after all, he does have top pair plus an open-end straight draw, so whether he bets or not, it is clear that his hand is good enough to take to the river. All in all, I would say: You could raise the turn, either because you think you have the best hand or to represent A-K for the nut straight, to slow down your opponent in case he's got a small straight like 9-8 and get a free showdown. Butflat-calling might be just as good – or even better, because if your opponent does have the straight and your raise doesn't slow him down, you will lose a lot more money than would seem normal with this type of hand.

Hand No. 3:
I get K-Q offsuit in late-middle position and raise after four limpers. Jack calls from the small blind, as do all the others. The flop is K-Q-4 with two clubs, a beautiful flop, indeed, apart from the two-flush, of course. I get check-raised by Jack, an AP cold-calls, and all the others fold. I three-bet, Jack folds, and the AP calls. The turn is the 9, a card that completes two of the most probable hands the cold-caller can have (J-10 for a straight or two clubs for a flush). With this death card staring me in the face, and up against someone who has check-raised me before, I respond to his check by checking it back. He swears and bets out after a rag comes on the river. I make a crying call and he shows me J-10 offsuit for a straight. Would you have folded top two pair in this case? I think I played this hand pretty fine!

First of all, I don't think K-Q offsuit is a raising hand after four limpers. It is usually better to just call, hoping to flop top pair with a good kicker, a good but vulnerable hand that is often easier to defend in an unraised pot. This is because someone with top pair/weaker kicker might now bet into you, and if you raise, you will be putting a lot of pressure on your opponents to try to outdraw you, and they probably will not be getting the correct odds because the pot is still relatively small.

After you got check-raised on the flop, with the cold-caller in the middle, you decided to raise back immediately, while I probably would have delayed this action until the turn. (First, flat-call to give Jack the impression that he is in the lead, and if he bets again after a blank comes on the turn, raise him then, to put more pressure on the probable drawing hand in the middle and to simply get more money in the pot with the current best hand.) Having said that, when you did three-bet and then that dangerous card fell on the turn, you deduced correctly that the AP might have been planning a check-raise. Since top two pair is too good to fold here, but has only four outs to improve,I like your check, and I also like your call on the river. The pot is simply too big to fold, especially since your opponent could conceivably be betting a weaker hand than yours. For instance, he might have a smaller two pair or even just one pair of kings that he thinks might be good. Heck, he might even be making a desperate bluff with something like A-J or A-10.

Some Final Words
I hope you enjoyed these descriptions of the hands that Marc played, as well as my views and recommendations. Even though a proper analysis isn't always easy (lots of decisions are based on what you "feel" the other player holds, and if you are not present in a game, it is often hard to come up with more than just some general guidelines), I hope these two columns gave you some insight into the thought processes that are needed to become a successful middle-limit hold'em player. Even though Marc still has a lot to learn, and the fact that he is doing so well may have more to do with the weak play of his opponents rather than his own excellence, he has one great thing going for him: his willingness to learn. This alone may be enough to put him way ahead of the majority of poker players, who don't have that same drive and are not willing to invest a lot of time and effort into improving their play.