Your Dual Goal for the Start of the Football Season

It goes without saying that you want to win. But, in order to accomplish that this football season, you are going to have to resolve to do two things.



First, you must study the teams well enough so that you can pick more winners than losers.



If you think you're going to repeatedly outwit the oddsmakers merely by using your previous experience and 2004 knowledge of the teams, you're probably going to be disappointed. It is the general consensus of professional handicappers that the guys who set and move the lines these days have never been sharper at what they do. That doesn't mean you can't find any winners. It just means that you have to be a little wiser, appropriately cautious, and a lot more flexible.



Teams change much faster these days than in the past. The pressure to win – and win now – has never been greater. Fans virtually everywhere are less patient. Coaches, even though many are very highly paid, sometimes are ousted after just two or three years on the job. More young players in both college and pro ball are playing sooner than ever.



Mistakes of players are critiqued during the game, shown over and over again in slow-motion detail, reviewed and critiqued again on the myriad of TV sports highlight shows, then hammered on during the week by radio talk-show guys for several days afterward. If you're not flexible (and part psychologist) in your analysis of the teams, your chances of winning will be substantially diminished.



And you must not be overly simplistic in your preparation and analysis. The number of returning starters on many a college team is decimated before its first game due to injury, suspension, transfer, and/or scholastic ineligibility. Last year's stable, reliable, veteran offensive line of an NFL team can this year quickly become a porous, shaky, noncohesive, learning-on-the-fly group because of free-agent losses, preseason injuries, and highly paid draft picks being force-fed action too early.



The bottom line? It's OK to have your preseason analysis of each team on paper. But, if you're going to get off to a good start to the season, you better be aware of any new problems since the beginning of August camp and you better learn about any new key contributors as soon as possible. One good idea is to avoid buying into the hype surrounding hot recruits in college and high draft choices in the NFL. Bear in mind that they earned their accolades at a lower level of football.



For my money, until they perform with excellence on the field against quality opposition at the higher level, they are (in crude terms for the sake of simplicity) just "dog meat." Remember, Tim Couch was the first overall pick in the 1999 NFL draft. Ryan Leaf was the second overall pick in 1998. Tom Brady was a sixth-round selection. In college, the percentage of recruiting "busts" is probably far greater than you think (try Notre Dame in recent years), and far greater than most coaches will admit.



If you expect to pick more winners than losers over the course of the season, it's best to be on top of things from the get-go.



Your second goal should be to manage your money well enough so that if you pick more winners than losers over the course of the season, you come out ahead.



I've said it before, and I'll say it again: One of the saddest things in handicapping is someone with the knowledge, savvy, and foresight to pick more winners than losers, but who still doesn't win because of terrible discipline and money management. I have never believed that the vigorish itself will cost you your bankroll. Picking losers and using poor money management almost certainly will.



Most professional handicappers agree with me that you can't emphasize money management too much. It is the nature of football wagering that the anticipation, the real-life excitement of the contest, and the thrill of victory combine to tempt too many people into carelessness. Even the pros must constantly combat this temptation.



For your review, here is a very condensed version of some of the money management basics: Never bet more money than you can afford to lose. Establish a specific sports betting bankroll with some of your recreational funds. Decide at the outset how much one "unit" will be for you (try about 4 percent of your bankroll for your basic plays, 6 percent for the best one of the day, and 8 percent for the best of the best that month). Employ a percentage-of-bankroll wagering method (thus, the amount of your "unit" will go up if your bankroll is growing and down if you're losing). Don't get blown out at the start of the season by betting too many games. Avoid last-minute "impulse" betting; stick with well-analyzed selections.



Never "plunge" or chase your money by doubling or tripling up (in poker parlance, never go on "tilt"). Try to avoid betting on "bad numbers"; it's extremely difficult to win if you constantly take the worst of the pointspread. Don't bet games just because they're on TV. Be extremely careful with "exotic" wagers (teasers, parlays, halftime bets, propositions, and so on). Bet a little bit more when you're winning and you're in tune with the season; cut down your wagers if you're losing (you're not going to win every year). Beware of periodic distractions (for example, illness, family problems, job stress, and so on) that can affect your handicapping process. If things repeatedly don't go your way, take a week or two off from wagering to regain your perspective.

Chuck Sippl is the senior editor of The Gold Sheet, the first word in sports handicapping for 48 years. The amazingly compact Gold Sheet features analysis of every football and basketball game, exclusive insider reports, widely followed Power Ratings, and a Special Ticker of key injuries and team chemistry. Start your handicapping with the extraordinary 2005 Gold Sheet College & Pro Football Annual, now available on newsstands nationwide. Or, you can reserve your copy by calling The Gold Sheet at (800) 798-GOLD (4653), and be sure to mention you read about it in Card Player. You can look up The Gold Sheet on the web at www.goldsheet.com.