A Tough No-Limit Hold'em Tournament Situation

While playing in the $10,000 buy-in World Series of Poker Circuit event at Harrah's Las Vegas recently, I had the opportunity to make a truly world-class laydown. So, I called. I would like to explain the hand, as well as my thought process, and then leave it for you to decide whether I could have escaped this trap.



It was early in the event. In fact, the blinds were still at their initial $25-$50 level, and I still had almost the entire $10,000 in starting chips. I had drawn what I considered to be a particularly tough table, in that there was only one unfamiliar face. I was expecting a challenging field for this event, and was not disappointed.



The action had been folded around to the small blind, who completed the bet to $50. The small blind, Rene, is what I would classify as a "serious recreational player." He has the means to play big buy-in tournaments, and the brains and heart to be a real factor in every event he enters. In addition, he has been working very hard to improve his no-limit hold'em tournament game as of late.



I checked behind Rene from the big blind with my mighty 10-3 offsuit. The flop came A-10-5 rainbow. Rene checked, I bet $100, and he called. So far, there was nothing unusual about this hand. My bet on the flop was more or less a "feeler" bet. I would have been happy to win the pot immediately, and I expected to do so most of the time. If I got check-raised, I planned on releasing my hand.



Rene's call didn't necessarily tell me a whole lot. At this stage of the tournament, he certainly was correct to call $100 with any pair or any inside-straight draw. If a blank hit on the turn, I planned on betting again. Given Rene's call, I considered everything but facecards to be blanks, since I thought that a facecard was likely to either pair him or give him a straight. If a facecard didn't improve his hand, there was a fairly good chance he already had me beat.



The turn came with a rather pretty offsuit 10, giving me trips. Rene checked again, and I bet $300. After a bit of thought, he check-raised to $1,100. Things had gotten rather interesting all of a sudden. Despite having trips and getting action, I'm not sure that I really liked the situation I was in. Here was the problem, in my mind: If Rene held an ace (which is the hand he figured to pay me off with), he had played it in unusual fashion on all three streets. With an ace, he likely would have fired in a preflop raise from the small blind. While I wouldn't have put it past him to limp with an ace, I think he would have been more likely to raise. On the flop, checking and calling with an ace seemed rather unlikely, as well. I would tend to make a small check-raise on the flop if I held an ace. But again, it wasn't that farfetched to just check and call. Now, when the 10 paired, Rene probably didn't like that card much if he did hold an ace, as this was one of the hands I may bet on the flop. So, wouldn't he just check and call me down with an ace, hoping to catch a bluff while minimizing the damage if I held a 10? To me, it seemed an unlikely parlay that he would play an ace this way three times. So, I decided it was an unlikely hand for him to hold.



So, then, what did he have? Perhaps he had flopped bottom pair, and was making this play thinking I was probably bluffing, but was unwilling to give free cards that might outrun his vulnerable holding. This made some sense to me, but it was also very early in the tournament, and I didn't think Rene would be sticking his neck out too far this early. Another option was a semibluff with a straight draw, something like Q-J. Again, while this was a possibility, it seemed rather unlikely, given his play thus far in the event and how early on it was.



That left a few hands that I couldn't beat – specifically, A-A, A-10, 5-5, or 10-X (the fourth 10 with a better kicker). Of these options, I thought that A-A and 10-X were most likely, as I believed he most likely would have raised preflop with 5-5 and A-10 (A-A could go either way).



After doing all of this well-constructed analysis, I was suddenly horrified by the sight of my rebellious right hand reaching down, counting out $800 in chips, and placing them in the pot. The part of my brain in charge of this operation informed the rest of my mind that I, in fact, had to call, because we were heads up and I held trips, and I would have to be some kind of idiot to fold a hand this big.



This wasn't very comforting, but then the river came with a beautiful card: a 3. I may have just pulled off a major escape act if Rene did, in fact, hold the other 10. Now, he fired $3,000 into the pot. I was faced with another difficult decision, and this time my hand wasn't about to have any say. Whereas the decision on the turn had been between calling and folding, this one was between calling and raising. For a raise to be correct, I had to be pretty sure of two things: I had the best hand, and Rene had enough of a hand to pay me off – namely, the other 10. The problem with raising here involved the issue of risk versus reward; if I raised and Rene called, and I won, I would gain a few thousand dollars in extra chips, which could marginally improve my chances of success in the event. However, if I raised and lost, I would be out – and elimination is bad. Ultimately, I decided that even though I believed I had probably just outdrawn him, the risk of elimination was not worth the gain of a few thousand dollars in extra chips, so I just called. Rene turned over pocket aces, I showed my defeated full house, and he stacked a nice pot.



At first glance, this hand seems like some sort of cruel cold deck. However, I wasn't unlucky in this hand. I did the work, and analyzed the hand properly. When it came time to execute, though, I failed miserably. Ultimately, I think it's a matter of confidence, as you must have a lot of faith in your ability to read hands to make these tough laydowns.



Although I was disappointed with my play on the turn, I emerged from the hand encouraged by my decision to lose "only" $3,000 more on the river.

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