Staying One Mental Step Ahead of the Competition - Part I

I would like to add a little warning to preface this column. Some of the poker concepts presented in this two-part series are undoubtedly among the most advanced that I have ever written. They could be very detrimental to your bankroll if used improperly, meaning that if you understand only 80 percent of the logic behind one of these concepts and then try to apply your knowledge, you likely would have been better off not applying the knowledge at all – unless you learn cheaply from your mistakes and one day have complete understanding of the concept in question.



The concepts in this column have been discussed before by others, but are often overlooked by even many serious poker players. The concepts are often referred to as levels of poker thinking, and I will do my best to describe them as coherently as possible. I will be discussing only the first three levels of thinking, but the levels go much deeper, and as they get deeper, they are much more confusing and generally not useful unless you find yourself heads up with a world-class player. Even then, going beyond the first three levels is probably unnecessary, unless the world-class player gives you tremendous respect in your poker-playing abilities. The group of players who would get such respect from a world-class player is generally very small, and not the target audience of this column.



The first level of poker thinking is fairly simple; it is trying to put an opponent on a hand. Ah, it is so easy to type, yet oftentimes so hard to do properly. Some opponents are completely immune to even the first level of poker thinking, and that is not because they are great players, but because they are such novice players that they do not even know the strength of the hand they are holding. Realistically, I believe that the majority of poker players (not those you see on TV or at the top of Card Player's Player of the Year standings) probably fall into this category. Don't get me wrong, the majority of these players know that with an A-J-10-9-2 three-heart board, they have top pair/top kicker when they are holding the A K. But, what they do not know is how weak a hand it is when a solid opponent bets a large amount on the river. Against novice players like these, I've found that a tight, solid playing approach works well. I rarely try to make big bluffs against these players, since they are likely to call me down with absolutely nothing just to look me up or play sheriff, or whatever else they choose to call it at the time. Instead, I generally wait until I make a strong hand or the nuts, and then I make big bets into them, hoping they will give me all of their chips when drawing dead or slim by calling me down with weaker holdings than mine.



Now, assuming that your opponent is skilled enough to correctly gauge how weak or strong his particular holding is in a given situation, you can attempt to apply the first level of poker thinking – which is trying to read his hand. It is absolutely crucial to use all of the information you have at your disposal to come up with a hand or range of hands that you think your opponent could possess. Think about how your opponent acted throughout the hand – preflop, on the flop, on the turn, and on the river. Even try to use past hands that you have witnessed him play to help your analysis. Sometimes it is very valuable to be able to dismiss just one possible hand that your opponent may have. Let's say that you have pocket aces and the board comes down A-4-3. If you know for a fact that your tight opponent would not have played 5-2 from the position he is in, given the preflop action of the hand, you know that you are currently holding the best hand and can play it accordingly.



The second level of poker thinking is where things really begin to get complicated. It involves trying to determine what your opponent thinks you have. Again, be careful when you attempt to apply this concept. If your opponent is not skilled enough for you to apply even the first level of poker thinking, it is futile to try to apply the second level. Even if he is skilled enough for the first level, he may not be skilled enough for you to bother with the second level. In order to make it worthwhile to apply the second level of thinking on an opponent, he must be trying to read your hand to figure out what you are holding, and he must be skilled enough at hand reading so that you can use his skill against him. Here's a note of caution: If your opponent is of world-class caliber or even great caliber, and is incredibly skilled at hand reading, use the second level of thinking against him with great caution, if at all, as he will likely find a way to outplay you despite your best efforts (that is what makes him so great, after all).



So, let's assume that your opponent's skill level falls in the fairly tight range of being skilled enough to read your hand with some degree of success, but he does not consistently have fantastic reads on you. This is the perfect opportunity to use the second level of poker thinking. Think about how you have played the hand you are involved in with this player up to the point in question, and definitely be wary of your table image. Also, be sure to give special attention to past big hands that you have played with this opponent. If you have played the hand in question fairly weakly, your opponent likely thinks that you have a weak holding or are trying to trap him with a very strong holding that does not need to be protected by making large bets. Given how the hand has played out and you read your opponent as being weak, you may try to make a big raise or even go all in with rags in an attempt to convince him that you were in fact trapping and that he should fold. Again, I cannot stress how much caution you should use when just starting to apply these concepts. Going all in on a stone-cold bluff in this spot is fantastic when your read is right, but it's devastating and will often cost you your tournament when your read is incorrect.



Part II will contain the third and final level of poker thinking that I am going to discuss.

Thomas "Thunder" Keller is a 25-year-old professional poker player and one of poker's young and rising stars. He can often be found playing at UltimateBet.com under the name thunderkeller. To learn more about him, go to his website at http://www.thunderkeller.com/. Also, feel free to contact him at [email protected].