Hand Reading

Could you play better if your opponents' cards were faceup? That's a silly question, I know, but it serves to point out the value of hand reading. Top professionals' proficiency at hand reading accounts for a large part of their edge over average players. The better you can become at solving the puzzle of what your opponents hold, the more money you will make. In fact, the ability to read hands is the gateway skill to expert play.



In this column, we will look at the thought processes that hand reading requires, some common errors, and a practice hand.



Thought Processes

Hand reading always considers all of the cards your opponent might hold for his actions. Based on this, you strive to narrow down the number by logic, or you try to take the action that makes the most sense with the understanding that any action may prove to be wrong even if all of your logic is correct.



To take a simple example, assume you have two queens. A tight player raises from early position before the flop. Obviously, he could have two aces, in which case you should fold. But he also could have K-K, Q-Q, J-J, A-K, or A-Q, and in the case of some players, A-J, K-Q or even 10-10. On balance, you should reraise even though it would be the wrong play if he holds exactly the top of his range. Notice that this is very different from simply putting him on A-K, as many players do. As the hand progresses, you will work to narrow down the likely hands based on his future actions, including his reaction to your three-bet.



Let's look at the elements that go into reading hands. You need to understand the following:

• How well your opponent plays

• How he approaches the game (how he thinks)

• His frame of mind

• What he thinks about how you play

• His tells

• Math



You need an awful lot of knowledge about your opponent before you can start to determine what your opponent holds.



How well your opponent plays: As you know, poker thought occurs at many levels. Perhaps the biggest challenge in accurate hand reading is the assessment of your opponent's level. The better he plays, the more logical and therefore predictable his play becomes. Of course, the better he plays, the more he understands how important it is to vary his game to try to deceive you. However, his play will usually be straightforward. If he plays terribly, he might have anything, and you will have to do more guessing than analysis. Happily, if he plays terribly, he will make so many errors that you will get his money, eventually.



How he approaches the game: Beyond his level of thought, you also need to know his general approach. Does he like to bet draws, or only made hands? Does he bluff-raise? Will he bet the river for value with a marginal hand or only with a very good one? Does he three-bet the flop with top pair, or must he have a better holding? You must study each opponent, as your knowledge of his approach will determine what hands you think he will play in a given situation.



His frame of mind: Not being a robot, your opponent has moods. He acts differently when winning than when losing. He may play differently early in the session than he does later, or when getting ready to leave. He may be upset by a bad beat, or enjoying a great joke. All of these moods affect his decision-making process, and you must take them into account when you determine how he would play a hand. One that he may play cautiously early, he may play boldly after winning a few pots. The better you understand this, the more accurate your reads will be.



What he thinks about how you play: While you are trying to solve him, he could be working on you, as well. Depending on his opinion, and how well he plays and adjusts, his responses to you could be vastly different from how he plays others. If you see him three-betting with A-J, it might be because a loose player has raised from late position. It does not necessarily mean he would three-bet you with the same hand. In fact, if he thinks you are much tighter, he might throw away the A-J if you had raised. You must understand this or else you could include A-J in the hands you mistakenly believe he could hold when he three-bets you.



His tells: I typically don't dwell on this subject in my columns, but, clearly, his physical actions and reactions must enter into your assessment of his holding. To the astute observer, a typical player's hand, eye, face and body movements provide significant insight into his holdings. Even if much of the time you can't find a tell, you still should stay focused on this area during live play, as you will discover more and more. When you do spot one, its value is considerable.



Math: Only rarely can you narrow down your opponent's holding to a specific hand. More often, you will narrow his holdings down to a few. You then can use math to determine the likelihood of each holding, and the pot odds to determine the consequences of each of your possible actions based on these probabilities. Just because a hand is more likely does not mean you should act as if he holds it. For example, on the river, you hold the A Q and the board is 6 3 2 7 Q. Your opponent has been representing a big hand and bets the river. You decide his only likely holdings are A-A, K-K, Q-Q, or A-K. Given the board and your hand, there are three ways he can hold A-A, six ways he can hold K-K, one way he can have Q-Q, and 12 ways he can have A-K. Thus, the odds are 12-10 that you have him beat. Does this mean you should raise? Of course not, since if he has A-K, he can't call, and if he has anything else, you will lose an extra bet (at least). In this case, the math would not have helped, and you probably needn't have done it, but this sort of problem is common, and the math frequently yields the proper decision.



Common Errors

You can always make an error in reading hands, but some errors are very common. They include the following:

• Putting someone on a hand

• Staying with your read

• Thinking the other guy plays like you



Putting someone on a hand: Many players confuse hand reading with the concept of putting a person on a hand. For example, you raise preflop and someone three-bets. You have seen this player three-bet with small pairs, so you decide to put him on a small pair. This is not hand reading, it's guessing. He could have a small pair, a big pair, big cards, or be making a weird play. You need to think about all of these options and narrow them down. If you simply put a player on a hand, you preclude considering other options.



Staying with your read: This error is closely related to the last one. In this case, you put together clues and decide upon a likely set of hands. Then, out of the blue comes a totally unexpected bet or raise. You must stop right here and reassess, but many players don't. They just plow ahead with their previous read, frequently making a disastrous reraise and losing several extra bets.



Thinking the other guy plays like you: You know how you play, but that does not mean the other player agrees with your theories of the game. I have seen loose players call down a very tight player because the caller would occasionally bluff in that situation. Sure, but the opponent would never think of it. Just because you would never call a raise with A-3 offsuit doesn't mean the other guy won't. You must be able to allow for the poor plays of the other guy, and not just pay off and complain because "he can't have that hand."



Now that we have covered the basics of hand reading, let's try a real-life example.



A Practice Hand

You hold the A K. The player on your right is a cautious professional who plays well without huge amounts of imagination. He thinks you are a tough professional who is hard to read. He raises before the flop, you three-bet, and he calls after everyone else folds. On the flop of Q 7 4, he checks, you bet, and he calls. He bets out when he sees the A hit the turn. You raise, and he calls. On the river, the 7 does not help you. He checks. What hand(s) could he hold and how should you continue? Really try to decide before you read on.



OK, time's up. I hope you said he has A-K, as that is certainly his most likely holding. He raised before the flop and almost certainly has a big pair or a big ace. With a pair smaller than queens, he might check-call the flop, but his turn play makes no sense. With A-J, he should not have called the flop, and should not have called the raise. With A-Q, he would have done more raising either on the flop or on the turn. With A-A or K-K, he probably would have reraised preflop or put more action in on the flop. Certainly, with A-A, he would be three-betting the turn. With K-K, even if he called the flop and bet the turn (unlikely), he would have folded for the raise. So, he has A-K, or else he has suddenly morphed into a much trickier player than you thought.



And what should you do on the river? Even though I love betting the river, I think this is an easy check. He almost certainly has A-K and you are chopping once you missed your spade freeroll. If your read is wrong, it is far more likely that you are somehow beat than you would win an extra bet. So, check and chop gets my vote.



Conclusion
Hand reading is difficult; it's part skill and part art. It requires extensive effort, a very good memory, and intense concentration. Once you start mastering it, though, reads become easier and improve over time. You still will make errors through incorrect reads, but overall your results will improve dramatically once you begin to really buckle down and start reading hands instead of just "putting someone on a hand."

Barry offers poker lessons tailored to the specific strengths and weaknesses of the individual student. Please visit his web site at http://www.barrytanenbaum.com/ or e-mail him at [email protected].