What in the Hell's Going On Down There?

If you've followed pro football for a number of years, you are familiar with the fine work done by NFL Films, which has immortalized many memorable moments with its seemingly ubiquitous cameras and field microphones. Among those moments is the question asked during one game by legendary coach Vince Lombardi, who was watching his Green Bay team make mistake after mistake against the Rams during a late-season visit to Los Angeles in the 1960s. Asked Lombardi of his players after they walked off the field, hanging their heads, following another misplay, "What the hell's going on out there?" Sportscasters and reporters of all kinds have repeated Lombardi's famous question thousands of times since.



In this column's title, I'm taking a slight liberty with Lombardi's remark with regard to the NCAA basketball tournament. I'm asking, "What the hell's going on down there" in the proud SEC when it comes to NCAA tournament time? The SEC usually sends five or six teams to the big event. And the league long ago shed its image of being just a "football conference." Kentucky for decades has been the league's bell cow, with championships under four different coaches and many other deep tourney runs. Florida's hoops program reached "A-level" status several years ago. Arkansas has a proud basketball tradition (albeit much of it in the old Southwest Conference). Alabama, LSU, Georgia, and Mississippi State have appeared in many recent tourneys; Auburn, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, and Ole Miss, a few.



The league for the past several years has had a reputation for having quick, athletic, defensively rugged teams. And SEC road games have become an increasingly difficult challenge. Some SEC representatives in recent tourneys have been among the deepest, quickest, and defensively gnarliest teams in the field. And most of the coaches are well-respected.



Yet, for a combination of reasons that are far from apparent, favorites from the tough Southeastern Conference have repeatedly been among the biggest pointspread disappointments in the NCAA field.



Over the past seven seasons, SEC favorites in the NCAA tourney are only 19-43-2 versus the spread (when not playing a fellow SEC team). That's a real money burner. Last year, SEC favorites went 3-5. Kentucky, which lost as a pick 'em in the Elite Eight (94-88 in double overtime to Michigan State), was 2-1 as a favorite, while the other four SEC representatives were 1-4 when laying points! Thus, the six-year record of underachieving SEC favorites was extended to a seventh year.



It can be argued that many of the SEC teams that have been in the "Big Dance" were among the top 10 or 15 teams in the nation that season, and therefore were asked to carry a very hefty pointspread load in the early tournament games. But that argument does not hold up under scrutiny when the SEC is compared with the ACC and the Big Ten, both of whom send elite teams to the tournament every season, as well.



While SEC tourney favorites have gone 19-43-2 (30.6 percent) versus the spread over the last seven years, ACC favorites – also often premier teams asked to carry heavy pointspread burdens – are a much better 31-41. And favorites from the Big Ten – whose teams are often regarded as bulkier and stronger than those in the South, but not as quick overall – are a moneymaking 35-22-1.



However, the foregoing does not mean that it's automatic "go against the SEC" time when it comes to the NCAA tournament. That's because SEC representatives tend to be very good underdogs in the NCAAs!


Over the past seven tourneys, SEC teams are a fierce 15-8 (65.2 percent) versus the spread when getting points!



Comparing other leagues with the SEC once again, underdogs from the Big Ten have gone 25-18 (58.1 percent) over the last seven NCAAs, while ACC dogs are 9-11.



As always, the general handicapping caveat applies. Just because some pointspread result has happened regularly in the past does not mean it is going to happen again next time. None of the percentages noted above is 100 percent. Every game is an entity in and of itself, with the final score determined by a large number of factors. And the NCAA tourney is a unique event stretching over a period of three weekends. That further multiplies the complexity.



But in handicapping basketball and football games, percentages of success approaching 60 draw considerable attention from those bettors who put a major emphasis on winning over the long run, rather than merely wagering occasionally for the excitement and enjoyment that casual wagering can yield.



Chuck Sippl is the senior editor of The Gold Sheet, the first word in sports handicapping for 49 years. The amazingly compact Gold Sheet features analysis of every football and basketball game, exclusive insider reports, widely followed Power Ratings, and a Special Ticker of key injuries and team chemistry. If you haven't seen The Gold Sheet and would like to peruse a complimentary copy, just call The Gold Sheet at (800) 798-GOLD (4653), and be sure to mention you read about it in Card Player. You can look up The Gold Sheet on the web at http://www.goldsheet.com/.