'It's Chinatown'

The title of this column is the final sentence of Chinatown, a favorite movie of mine, and of many, many others. In fact, Robert Towne, the screenwiter, won the Academy Award that year (1974) for best original screenplay.



The movie starred Jack Nicholson, Faye Dunaway, and John Huston, and was directed by Roman Polanski. It is regularly included on many lists of the top 50 American motion pictures.



Why do I reference it here? Because, as the movie slowly and cleverly unfolds, one of the things you learn is that Nicholson's character (Jake Gittes) – a former employee of the Los Angeles district attorney's office turned private investigator in L.A. in the 1950s – once had worked in the Chinatown area of the city, saying he didn't like it because, "You can't always tell what's going on there." Thus, one of the key themes of the movie is that there are some things that happen in Chinatown for which there is often no satisfactory explanation, nor responsibility assigned. They just happen, and that's it. After a surprising climax, the movie ends with the final line: "Forget it, Jake. It's Chinatown."



After nearly three decades of closely handicapping games in the NBA, I believe many things that happen in the league can be characterized in a similar way. With hundreds of games each season, sometimes the events are not only eye-opening, but amazing to handicappers.



Rather than dwell on bad beats or agonizing losses that defy both logic and the odds, it's usually best to just tell yourself, "It's the NBA," and move on.



Here are just a few of the semibizarre, unpredictable, against-the-odds, and sometimes just flat unbelievable occurrences that I noted over several weeks this winter.



On Dec. 20, Kobe Bryant scored 62 points in 33 minutes of action against Dallas, one of the league's most improved defensive teams. Through the first three quarters of play, the entire Maverick team scored a total of only 61 points! No other Laker player in the game scored in double figures in the 112-90 L.A. victory.



On Jan. 22, Bryant scored his amazing 81 points against Toronto, virtually all of which were much needed in a game in which the Lakers trailed 63-49 at the half. I watched TV with some friends and pointed out how rarely the Raptors ever double- or triple-teamed Bryant, if merely to make him give up the ball now and again. One Toronto player later told a reporter that such multiple trapping schemes and other defensive ploys (for example, gimmick combination man-to-man and zone defenses) are not in his team's defensive repertoire!



One night later, on Jan. 23, Golden State, playing a quick-turnaround revenge game at home against the L.A. Clippers after losing the previous night in Los Angeles, built a 21-point lead late in the third quarter, and then blew it all in the fourth quarter to lose 96-93. The Clips' second-leading scorer, Corey Magette (22 points per game), did not play in the game due to injury.



In a Minnesota game Feb. 3 in Portland, all-star Kevin Garnett had made 11 shots in a row in a tight game in which the margin was never more than four points during the last seven minutes. Then, down the stretch, after Garnett had carried his team with 27 points, 15 rebounds, and four assists, he never got the ball on offense, with either his coach not "calling his number" or his teammates not passing to him. The lowly Trailblazers eked out an 89-85 victory.



On March 1, the L.A. Clippers, at home, trailed New Orleans 51-47 at the half, and were down by 10 points to the underdog visitor in the third quarter. Then, the Hornets proceeded to miss their next 21 shots, going scoreless for a period of 14 minutes of playing time! The Hornets ended up being outscored 21-8 in the third quarter and 21-8 in the fourth, making just one basket in the last 20 minutes and losing 89-67. Their 16 points in the second half turned out to be the fewest in a half since the NBA put in the shot clock in the 1950s! Neither forward Corey Maggette nor starting center Chris Kaman of the Clippers played due to injury.



These are just a few instances of dozens each year. You get the idea. Sometimes in pro hoops – as in Chinatown – there's no explanation for the events other than, "It's the NBA."



I bring this up as a matter of perspective. The regular schedule is winding down, and the NBA is in its "dog days," which can be even more unpredictable. Some teams are fighting for playoff spots. Some teams have them locked up and are resting players (and giving eager backups some coveted playing time). Some players in their "contract year" are trying to impress. Others might have visions of vacations to Jamaica or Hawaii dancing through their heads. Pointspreads can get extended by oddsmakers. So, handicappers must use even more care than normal.



Here are just a few general dog-day guidelines. Most home-court edges tend to be smaller late in the regular season, because every team has played more than 30 games as a visitor. When focused "A" and "B+" teams are favored on the road against "C" teams (that is, the also-rans), the winning percentages for the favorite begin to decline substantially once the spread gets higher than 5 or 5½ points. If any team gets hot versus the pointspread down the stretch, look to ride the streaking team (as always). Winning begets winning, especially in the dog days, when many players have to fight through accumulated injuries to play hard. Victory can be a great ointment.



If a team shows signs of disinterest, disunity, or players' dislike for each other, look to go against it, even if you have to lay a few more points than usual. Such a "sick" team is unlikely to turn things around for more than a game or two. Its players take more shots outside the concept of the offense, and don't hustle back on defense. Such teams tend to be "fodder" for teams with good chemistry, with the fodder teams building a string of pointspread losses to end the season.



Lastly, maintain a close watch on the standings. Once a team clinches the playoff spot it wanted to clinch, coaches tend to rest their starters, and sometimes hold them out entirely, blaming minor injuries. Such playoff teams still tend to play with pride, but you might want to trim the size of any wagers somewhat. After all, in the dog days of the NBA, "it's Chinatown" out there, more than ever.

Chuck Sippl is the senior editor of The Gold Sheet, the first word in sports handicapping for 49 years. The amazingly compact Gold Sheet features analysis of every football and basketball game, exclusive insider reports, widely followed Power Ratings, and a Special Ticker of key injuries and team chemistry. If you haven't seen The Gold Sheet and would like to peruse a complimentary copy, just call The Gold Sheet at (800)-798-GOLD (4653), and be sure to mention you read about it in Card Player. You can look up The Gold Sheet on the web at http://www.goldsheet.com/.