Weighing the Evidence

Many decisions in hold'em are – for players with even just moderate experience – rather straightforward. For example, you are the preflop raiser and are lucky enough to receive a favorable flop. So, you bet. There's nothing much to think about there. Or, maybe you got a cheap/free play from one of the blinds but the flop hasn't helped. Someone else seems to like his hand, so you fold. Again, this decision is not likely to overly test the gray matter.



Sometimes, though, the correct play is not blindingly obvious, and you need to consider some subtle factors to decide upon the best way to approach a hand. When a decision is close, you need to gather all available evidence to help you choose what to do. Here is an example:



You are playing in a game with opponents who in general appear to be competent but rather passive. Much of the time when players show strength, the opposition simply backs off. A middle-position player limps in and everyone folds around to the small blind, who also calls. You are in the big blind with the K 5 and check. There are three players in the pot and three small bets. The flop comes down K 7 2 and the small blind checks. Your first instinct should now be that this is a very decent flop for you, and that you should bet your hand. However, you notice that this is a tiny pot and your hand is actually rather strong. There is a saying in chess that when you see a good move, you should stop and look for a better one. Is there a better move here? Is this a good moment to check and slow-play the hand?



Of course, slow-playing is a technique that is more often used with real powerhouses and not hands that merely consist of top pair and no kicker. However, hand values in hold'em are all relative, and in this particular instance, your pair of kings could easily put you as far ahead of the opposition as a set might in other circumstances. In fact, the arguments in favor of slow-playing here are rather persuasive:

1. The pot is tiny – just three small bets.

2. The flop is completely uncoordinated, so your opponents are most unlikely to stumble into straights and/or flushes.

3. You are vulnerable to only one overcard.

4. If you bet now, it is probable that everybody will fold. However, if you check, an opponent with a hand such as 9-8 may make a pair on the turn or pick up a straight draw. He will not get the right price to pursue this draw, so you will benefit from bets that go into the pot on the turn, regardless of the actual outcome of the hand.



There is an argument against slow-playing. If an opponent happens to have a lower pair – say, 9-7 – you are giving him a free shot to outdraw you. However, this is not that big a deal. Firstly, if the middle-position player has this hand, he almost certainly will bet after you check, and this will enable you to get in a favorable check-raise. Secondly, if the small blind has this hand, he probably would have bet out on the flop. However, if the small blind does have such a holding and checked the flop, and you now bet, he will (at the very least) call, so betting cannot protect your hand. If you are going to get outdrawn in this hand, it will happen whether you slow-play or not. However, by slow-playing, you possibly create chances to win extra bets on the many occasions that you have the best hand and it stands up.



It is hard to criticize someone who bets out in this situation. However, slow-playing with a check is also fine, and is a more imaginative play. You are making a reasonable attempt to allow someone who would fold to an immediate bet to make a second-best hand and pay you off. You also are adding a little deception to your play, which may benefit you later in the session – especially if you are playing shorthanded. Now let's consider various slight changes to the circumstances and see if they should affect your decision:



1. You hold the Q 5 and the flop is Q 7 2. Slow-playing is now becoming more dangerous. There are two overcards that can arrive rather than one, and this tilts the scale in favor of betting out and being satisfied with taking the pot down at once – if indeed that is the outcome.



2. You hold the J 5 and the flop is J 7 2. Slow-playing in the previous example was doubtful – and now it is simply horrible. You are vulnerable to three overcards and there is a more subtle problem, in that the high card – the jack – is now within touching distance of the 7, and this makes gutshot-straight draws possible. All sorts of draws can appear on the turn, and you must make players pay to see that card.



3. You hold the K 5 and the flop is K 8 7. Again, you must bet here, as slow-playing is simply wrong. The key difference with the original scenario is the 8 7 combination, which has replaced the 7 2. This creates numerous drawing possibilities and makes it much more likely that you will get action with a straightforward bet. If an opponent has a hand like J-9 or J-10, he will think that he has as many as 10 outs, and may even take an aggressive posture in the hand. The point is that with the K 7 2 on the flop, it is hard to imagine a hand (other than one containing a 7) that will give you action. With the K 8 7 on board, there is a much greater chance that you can get action without going to the trouble (and potential danger) of slow-playing.



4. You hold the K 5 and the flop is K 7 2. This is borderline. The flop is not at all connected, but it does feature a two-flush, and this in itself is always a danger. If the flop round is checked around and a third spade comes, it will inevitably make it difficult for you to play the hand accurately.



There is another point here that becomes clear if you consider the situation from the point of view of your opponents. When the flop is K 7 2 and you bet, it looks like you have a pair, as there is no hint of a draw anywhere. One of your opponents may be suspicious that you are stealing, but with the pot being so small, he is unlikely to go to the trouble of calling you down to find out. However, when you bet into the flop of K 7 2, players will think that you might have a pair, but that it's also possible that you are pushing a flush draw. Now, a player with a hand such as 3-3 or A-9 might be more inclined to look you up. Again, the point is that you can generate "natural" action with a straightforward bet and don't need to get involved in slow-playing.



5. You hold the Q 5 and the flop is Q 7 2, or you hold the K 5 and the flop is K 7 2. These are examples No. 2 and No. 4 respectively, but now the game is a more lively one. Although the players appear to be no more competent than in the original examples, they are now a much more active bunch – pushing draws, bluffing, and semibluffing. Now, slow-playing becomes more attractive. Just because players like to be active does not mean that they are suicidal. If you bet now and no one has anything, everyone will most likely still give up. However, if the flop round is checked around and players pick up a piece of the board on the turn, you could get some decent action. In these circumstances it is worth taking a risk by allowing a free card. If someone then bets and you raise, you could get him to put two big bets into the pot when he is drawing pretty thin.



When a decision is close, try to consider all of the factors involved: the specific texture of the flop, the size of the pot, the nature of the game, and even how your opponents perceive you. Poker is a game in which players who make the best use of the information available will succeed. This information is everywhere – and the better players are good at spotting it and using it effectively. Make sure you do, too.

Byron Jacobs is the author of How Good is Your Limit Hold Em? with Jim Brier. It is available through bookstores and at http://www.dandbpoker.com/. Byron may be contacted at [email protected].