A Bad Read Leads to a Bad Fold

Michael e-mailed me recently about a hand he hasn't been able to get out of his mind since playing it. He began by detailing the scenario: "I was sitting in a $100 buy-in no-limit hold'em game at Commerce Casino that had $2-$3 blinds. I had been playing for a few hours with a young man I'll call 'Joe', who had the air of a serious player. Joe had started with the standard buy-in of $100 and now had $500 in front of him – a tidy profit.



"I had come to respect Joe's play, and never regretted laying down trouble hands like A-J or K-Q to his raises. I had never seen him bluff, although I had seen him make big plays with minor holdings. When he made these plays, it was usually against loose-aggressive players who either folded or showed down losing hands. In other words, his reads seemed pretty good. Joe had seen me show down some strong hands, and seemed to respect my play, as well, usually folding when I showed strength.



"Now, here's the hand that has bothered me for weeks. Under the gun, I picked up pocket jacks and made it $15 to go, which was the standard, 'serious' raise in this game. Smaller raises that were made were more pot builders than signs of real strength. Joe, who was seated on my immediate left, called without hesitation. Everyone else folded, so we were heads up with $35 in the pot. I didn't know what to put Joe on, but I figured he probably had an ace with a big kicker. The flop came K-J-8 rainbow, giving me middle set. I bet $20, hoping to get raised. Joe hesitated briefly, then called. The pot now had $75 in it. The turn brought an ace, and I led out with a $25 bet. Again, Joe called without hesitation. I figured that ace had to have helped him.



"The river paired the king, giving me jacks full of kings. I bet $30, thinking that was the most I could bet and still get called. Joe quickly raised an additional $100. I went into the think tank and asked for time. I figured Joe must have had A-K and had made kings full of aces on the river. I asked myself whether he could be raising with a lesser hand, such as trip kings and not a full house. Could he have called preflop with K-Q, K-J, or K-10? I also wondered what kind of hand he put me on. Did he think I had A-K or possibly A-Q, or had made a lucky straight on the turn? After a lot of pondering, I decided he must have made kings full, and I folded my hand."



At the end of his e-mail, Mike asked, "Tom, what would you have done? Did I play the hand poorly from the flop in trying to milk it? Did I make a mistake in my read as well as my betting?"



Unfortunately, my answer to both questions is yes. But before we go any further with my analysis, there is some additional information to consider.



After Mike called for time, he turned his hand over to try to get a read on Joe, asking, "Can you beat this?"



Joe immediately answered, "No." As Mike continued to think, Joe mumbled, "It's almost an automatic call." This was the truth, of course, but was confusing to Mike.



"Was I too timid?" Mike asked me. Again, my answer is yes.



First, let's consider the preflop action. Mike raised from under the gun and was flat-called by Joe, with the entire field still to act behind him. This usually does not indicate a superstrong starting hand. Then, with two facecards on board, Mike decided to underbet the pot, trying to lure Joe in. If Joe had any two facecards, he now had a straight draw and was getting a fairly cheap price to draw to it. Furthermore, if Joe played as well as Mike thought, this kind of underbet would not have deceived him, so playing in a more straightforward manner was probably the best strategy.



Doyle Brunson talks about exactly this type of situation in Super/System. Doyle likes to lead out with a strong hand, the nuts or close to it, with that type of flop. He is not trying to win just an extra bet; he is trying to break his opponent, so he makes at least a pot-sized bet, and maybe even bigger, trying to get his opponent to think he is on a steal.



Hopefully, the opponent will go for the bait and come over the top, which is exactly what we want to see happen in this situation. Mike's poor betting strategy on fourth street, again underbetting the pot, made it very cheap for Joe to draw against him, another mistake. With an ace on the turn, there was a strong possibility that Joe had a straight, or a pair and a straight draw. In a situation like this, you must make your opponent pay to draw against you. You can't play chicken and expect to win in no-limit hold'em.



Mike's fold on the river was truly horrendous. If my opponent was lucky enough to beat me when I flopped middle set, he was just going to have to take my money. It is highly unlikely that a strong player like Joe would have played a hand like A-K that way. He probably would have raised sooner, rather than waiting until the river. In fact, the logical hand to put Joe on would have been either a straight or a set of eights.



If our middle sets hold up and we make correct plays on the river, I'm sure we'll meet in the winner's circle one day soon.

Tom McEvoy is a representative of PokerStars.com and the voice of ProPlay, an innovative way to learn winning poker strategy. You can find out more at ProPlayLive.com/TomMcEvoy.