Online Pot-Limit Draw Questions - Part I

Reader David Young sent me this e-mail:



Dear Mr. Wiesenberg,

Your first two columns on pot-limit draw were very informative. I say "first two" because I'm hoping there will be more. Here are some questions I have:



1. When you're faced with a large open-raise and you're not in the big blind, do you need a better hand to call with than you would for a minimum open-raise?



Yes. The larger the opening bet, the worse your immediate pot odds. For example, in a game with blinds of $1-$2, the minimum a player who raises can open for is $4 and the maximum is $7. Let's take the two extremes:



If a player opens for $4 and no one else calls, you must call $2 from the big blind to continue. You are getting pot odds of 3.5-to-1.



If a player opens for $7 and no one else calls, you must call $5 from the big blind to continue. You are getting pot odds of 9-to-5 (we can discount the $1 small blind, because that will probably go to the drop).



If you are facing two pair with the larger being lower than your one pair, or one pair higher than your pair, you are a bit worse, on average, than a 3-to-1 underdog. Since the average starting hand of an unknown player who opens for twice the big blind is about two small pair, you are getting approximately the right pot odds to call with about a pair of tens.



With the maximum open, what hand worse than the opener's is only about a 9-to-5 underdog? Unfortunately, virtually none. Only an open-end straight-flush draw comes close. That's only slightly worse than 2-to-1 against making a straight or better; making a straight or better with an inside straight-flush draw is close at about 3-to-1. You can always make a small enough bet after the draw to guarantee getting paid off, thus ensuring that you make 3-to-1 on your investment. Neglecting those two drawing hands, though, which you hold only extremely rarely, means you must have a hand that approximately a third of the time figures to be better than the opener's. That hand is somewhere around eights up. Thus, against an unknown raiser, you should not even play sevens up or worse, and certainly not one pair.



From these two extremes, you can see that the larger the opening bet, the better the hand you need to call.



For instance, suppose in a fivehanded game that a player you know nothing about opens from under the gun for three times the big blind and you're on the button with a pair of kings. Would you call?



Probably not.



In a sixhanded game, would you call with aces?



Yes. I want to know that if I am against trips, I will for sure make a good pot by beating them. If I have kings, I might make three kings and lose to three aces, and that will be costly. But if I make the three aces, most of the time I will have the best of it.



I can see how these might be iffy calls even in a limit game, because, as you emphasize, it's important to have the best hand before the draw. Then again, if you didn't call in these situations, would you be playing too tight?



Actually, I'd be more inclined to call in a pot-limit game than a limit game, because of the greater implied odds. I don't know how often in a limit game I've made three aces against what I'm sure is smaller trips and have wanted to raise the opponent's limit bet by more than that same amount. I like the ability to make pot-sized bets. Many times, I've been against someone I knew had trips and he bet less than the pot after the draw and I raised the pot and got called.



2. In Part II, you give a situation in which you call with a flush draw. Do you always do this?



No.



In what situations would you not call?



I often need two opponents, since I'm out of position. The trouble with being out of position against one player is that I usually can't bet enough after the draw to warrant having made the call initially. If my opponent calls correctly, I can't make money on the draw. Check-raising is usually not an option, because after I pass, most players just show down two pair. This is different from a limit game. Most players don't want to make a reasonable bet and then get faced with a pot-sized check-raise.



The bottom line is, against only a solid player who opens for more than twice the big blind, I don't call with a flush draw. This takes into account implied odds, because they are smaller than they might seem when I include that I often won't get called when I make the hand, and that when I improve and get beat, I will lose a lot. Remember that when you are against a better hand, four outcomes, loosely, are possible: neither player improves; the better hand improves and the worse hand does not; the worse hand improves and the better hand does not; both hands improve. In three of those four outcomes, the worse hand loses. Yes, the categories can be further broken down. One important subcategory is that the worse hand improves more than the better hand improves. Another is that the better hand is already strong and the worse hand improves, but not enough. It all evens out, though, to where I don't like calling with what I'm pretty sure is the worse hand against one player, or where I have to make a straight or flush to win.



I'll get to the rest of David's questions next time.

Michael Wiesenberg's The Ultimate Casino Guide, published by Sourcebooks, is available at fine bookstores and at Amazon.com and other online book purveyors. Send gibes, japes, and jeremiads to [email protected].